Keeper Rankings – Part 1

Posted: January 11, 2012 in League News

By Ryan Main, based on the original format developed by Sean Chard

Congratulations to Steven Dickie on his 2011 Shooter Cup Championship win…his 2nd overall!  It was a great season and congratulations should also go out to Super Sods and Crackheads for battling right to the end as well as to Dynasty for an amazing run into a money spot.

One of the toughest parts of winning an OBFBL championship is breaking your ties to some of the players you spent substantial time following, analyzing and eventually fighting to get onto your team…heck, you might have even bought a jersey to celebrate them, or still have one for a long-lost keeper you’d like to get back. It’s almost impossible to win this league (though not impossible as was proven here), without dealing some top tier keepers and RK picks.

Given that so much work and emotion is tied to these keepers, everyone wants to know how their GM skills rank and where their team stands heading into the season. Thanks to Sean Chard, who defined the original method, I’ve updated the info and here’s how the team rankings were determined for 2011’s keepers:

1.
Player rankings were collected from 5 sources, all captured on Jan.5, 2012 and all recently updated for 2012. The players were each given a weighted score, based on the relevance of the rankings. Here are the sources and weights:

2. Take the composite rating from the 5 weighted scores and generate a ranking for 200 players based on these scores

3. Develop a keeper tier and assign points to each tier and player

  • a. Overall Rank 1-6: Tier 1, 10 keeper points
  • b. Overall Rank 7-12: Tier 2, 9 keeper points
  • c. Overall Rank 13-24: Tier 3, 8 keeper points
  • d. Overall Rank 25-36: Tier 4, 7 keeper points
  • e. Overall Rank 37-48: Tier 5, 6 keeper points
  • f. Overall Rank 49-60: Tier 6, 5 keeper points
  • g. Overall Rank 61-72: Tier 7, 4 keeper points
  • h. Overall Rank 73-84: Tier 8, 3 keeper points
  • i. Overall Rank 85-96: Tier 9, 2 keeper points
  • j. Overall Rank 97-114: Tier 10, 1 keeper point
    (Note: the number 114 was taken from 8 keepers for 12 teams = 96, plus inclusive of half of the total 36 active keepers = 114)
  • k. Overall Rank 115-200: Tier 11, 0 keeper points

4. Assign the appropriate value to rookie keeper players, as follows:

  • a. 2010 drafted rookie keepers are assigned their ranked value, PLUS 1 bonus point for their keeper value (Note: these previously received 0 RK points, but I believe this position still holds value as it provides roster flexibility and minor trade value)
  • b. 2011 drafted rookie keepers are assigned their ranked value PLUS 2 bonus points for their keeper value
  • c. 2012 undrafted rookie keeper picks are assigned PLUS 3 bonus points for their keeper value

5. Calculate the total keeper points by team for their 8 keepers and rookie keepers

6. Rank the OBFBL teams 1-12 based on the total keeper points

7. Even though keepers have already been selected, I kept alternate keepers included for players in the top 200 ranking for 2012
In anticipation of the 2012 run for the Shooter Cup, here are your OBFBL 2011 Keeper Rankings…in reverse order:

Analysis:  Poo Dogs took a huge hit already this offseason with Braun testing positive for PED’s and having his rank drop from a clear tier 1 keeper all the way to the 8th tier.  This alone dropped their team rank down 3.5 spots overall heading into 2012.  Overall, Poo Dogs has a good mix of hitters, starters, relievers and lots of youth, so it looks like Poo Dogs is on the right track to build into 2013, but we’ve seen them surprise us in the past with excellent drafts.  Braun “should” provide a boost when he returns, but if they don’t resign Fielder, protection may be an issue.  Is now the time to move Braun to make an unexpected title run or does he remain patient…time will tell.


Analysis
:  New owner (Kim) got his Motor Boats started pretty well in 2011 considering the hand he was dealt.  Several immediate moves meant all his keepers were gone before the season started in exchange for better RK’s and draft picks.  Motor Boats used that to stay higher than expected in the standings early, but the lack of a strong core of keepers slowly caught up.  Motor Boats have added some key players (McCutchen/Zimmerman/McCann) that should be great to build around, but seems to have an affinity for catchers with 3 heading into 2012, letting another 2 walk for the draft.  If Motor Boats can avoid their catcher fetish, continue to add higher tier keepers and with a bit of luck, they may be ready to compete in 2013, which would be an outstanding turnaround from their unfortunate 2010 team.

Analysis:  Our other new owner (Ryan) got a better set of keepers out of the gate, but made some big moves prior to the season to get younger and prepare for a future run, at the expense of a low placing (2nd last) in the 2011 standings.  The future looks bright with some of the best young talent in MLB (Lawrie, Strasburg, Jennings, Hosmer), but could be bit by sophomore slumps.  The core needs some work beyond Pedroia.  Pitching shouldn’t be much of an issue, but hitting may be a struggle unless Blue Balls can strike gold in the draft or through some other moves.  This team has every position filled for 2012, so has a fair amount of flexibility to draft with.  Should be interesting to see what this team looks like at the end of the year with a lot of players hoping to extend their early success or come back from off years.


Analysis
:  Gaping Gash had a very disappointing 2011 season on the heels of his 2010 Shooter Cup win.  Finishing last likely wasn’t expected given his keepers, but injuries and under-performance was what led to the horrible season.  There’s substantial upside to many of his 2011 keepers, but could Reyes be in for the same trouble Crawford had out of the gates in Boston?  Miami’s new stadium is said to be an extreme pitchers park…will that benefit his run game or hurt him? – it’s not like Citi Field was helping him hit, so may be irrelevant.  Hamilton has a contract to play for, but he’s never been accused of “slacking”, but more for already playing too hard…will he push it beyond his ability?  Both Reyes and Hamilton may be in line for a monster year if they can stay healthy.   Other questions surround Choo/Lind/Gordon…can their past inconsistency be turned around in 2012 – Gaping Gash had better hope so.  With a couple RK picks, there’s some room to make some moves, but for the most part, this team will have to rely on its core and hope for a strong draft to contend in 2012.  Looking to 2013 might be a better plan, but with the highest (tied) score of the bottom 4, Gaping Gash could decide to go either way.

Summary:  Hope you enjoyed the analysis of the bottom 4…I’ll be back with the middle 4 soon.  Please discuss and let me know if you agree/disagree with any of the info.  Rankings are made to be questioned, and I’ve got a few I don’t agree with myself, but they are what they are and they were taken from very good sources.

Comments
  1. […] competition is higher than previous years, and as shown in Ryan Main’s Keeper Rankings articles (Part 1, Part 2), the strength of the teams this year is really close together. Any of these 8 teams can […]

  2. […] waste your time with all the detail.  If you need the background, refer to last year’s story (https://obfbl.com/2012/01/11/keeper-rankings-part-1/).  I will give you one piece of information, and that is the origin of the rankings used…given […]

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