The OBFBL RK Draft – A History Lesson – Pt 2

Posted: February 11, 2012 in League News

As we prepare for 2012 RK Draft coming up on Monday, February 27th, let’s look back on the History of the draft. We’ll take a look at some of the interesting stats and trends from the previous 8 RK drafts.

NOTE: Refer to the RK Draft page for a link to spreadsheet containing all the draft’s history and additional data.

In Summary:
There have been 94 RK players taken thus far in the history of the OBFBL, leading up to the 2012 RK draft
– of the 94, one-third of the picks (31) or 33% have been BUSTS
– of the 94, only 22.3% of the picks (21) have become STUDS (consistently ranked in top 80, and kept multiple times) or SUPERSTARS (consistently ranked in the top 30 and kept every year)
– of the 94, one-third of the picks (31) or 33% have had some moderate success in their MLB career up to this point  (including 1 or 2 seasons ranked in the top 100, and/or may have been kept a couple times)
– of the 94, there are 11 players (11.7%) picked in 2010 or 2011 that it is still early to categorize them

The success rate for drafting RK players that are at least worthwhile regulars on your Fantasy team is pretty high.  However the success rate for selecting RK players that turn out to be excellent players, during and/or after their RK contract is still relatively low.


OBFBL RK Draft by MLB Position:

Note: The position used is what the player was designated as when the RK draft took place (i.e. Ryan Braun is a 3B, Wil Myers is a C)

Results by Position:
Catchers: 9 selected – 3 busts (33%), 3 moderate success (33%), 1 stud / 0 superstars (11%), 2 TBD (22%). Biggest success: Joe Mauer;   Biggest bust: J.D. Closser
1st Basemen: 7 selected – 2 busts (29%), 1 moderate success (14%), 1 stud / 3 superstars (57%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Joey Votto;   Biggest bust: Mike Jacobs
2nd Basemen: 4 selected – 1 bust (25%), 2 moderate success (50%), 0 stud/superstar (0%), 1 TBD (25%). Biggest success: Rickie Weeks;  Biggest bust: Chris Burke
3rd Basemen: 12 selected – 6 busts (50%), 2 moderate success (17%), 1 stud / 2 superstars (25%), 1 TBD (8%). Biggest success: Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria;   Biggest bust: Dallas McPherson, Andy Marte
Shortstops: 8 selected – 4 busts (50%), 1 moderate success (13%), 1 superstar (13%), 2 TBD (25%). Biggest success: Troy Tulowitzki;   Biggest bust: Brandon Wood
Outfielders: 26 selected – 8 busts (31%), 9 moderate success (35%), 4 studs / 2 superstars (23%), 3 TBD (12%). Biggest success: Grady Sizemore, Jacoby Ellsbury;   Biggest bust: Jeremy Reed
Starting Pitchers: 25 selected – 7 busts (28%), 11 moderate success (44%), 3 studs / 2 superstars (20%), 2 TBD (8%). Biggest success: Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez;  Biggest bust: Mike Pelfrey
Relief Pitchers: 3 selected – 0 busts (0%), 2 moderate success (67%), 1 stud / 0 superstars (33%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Craig Kimbrel;   Biggest bust: N/A

Synopsis:
On average, the most successful position yielding the highest % of high end talent is 1st base (57%), followed by 3rd base and Shortstop (25%). Conversely, 3B and SS also tied for the highest percentage of busts with 50%.  For those two positions it’s definitely been BOOM or BUST. The safest bets appear to be Outfielders and Starting pitchers, but they also have the largest sample sizes. Of course, the top prospects and their positions for each given RK year vary widely and it’s difficult to draw any conclusions about potential future RK success by looking at the past. It’s interesting to look through the stats though.


OBFBL RK Draft by Draft Order:

Results by Draft Order:
#1 overall picks: 8 selections – 2 busts (25%), 4 moderate success (50%), 1 stud (12.5%), 1 TBD (12.5%)
#2 overall picks: 8 selections – 1 bust (12.5%), 4 moderate success (50%), 1 stud / 1 superstar (25%), 1 TBD (12.5%)
#3 and #4 overall picks: 16 selections – 8 busts (50%), 6 moderate success (37.5%), 0 studs / 1 superstar (6%), 1 TBD (6%)
#5 and #6 overall picks: 16 selections – 3 busts (19%), 3 moderate success (19%), 4 studs / 4 superstars (50%), 2 TBD (12.5%)
#7 and #8 overall picks: 16 selections – 7 busts (44%), 5 moderate success (31%), 1 stud / 1 superstar (12.5%), 2 TBD (12.5%)
#9 and #10 overall picks: 16 selections – 5 busts (31%), 5 moderate success (31%), 2 studs / 2 superstars (25%), 2 TBD (12.5%)
#11 to #14 overall picks: 14 selections – 5 busts (36%), 4 moderate success (29%), 2 studs / 1 superstar (21%), 2 TBD (14%)

Synopsis:
Wow! You’d think that success rates would be higher for the top end picks. A few things standout:

– Of the 32 picks that were top 4 each year in RK draft, only 4 players turned into studs or superstars
– The bust rate of picks #3 or #4 is 50%! With only 1 superstar picked. By far the worse amongst all the categories
– The rate for studs and superstars picked out of the #5 and #6 pick slots is 50%, highest amongst all slots
– The results for the #9 and #10 category and #11 – #14 category are even better than #7 and #8
– In theory the higher picks should be better and everyone works to get them, or to trade up in the draft, but historically the results show that this doesn’t necessarily lead to success


OBFBL RK Draft by Franchise:

Results by OBFBL Franchise:
Ajax Super Sods: 11 selections – 4 busts (36%), 2 moderate success (18%), 3 studs / 1 superstar (36%), 1 TBD (9%). Biggest success: Troy Tulowitzki;   Biggest bust: Mat Gamel
Aurora Asshats: 6 selections – 1 bust (17%), 3 moderate success (50%), 0 studs / superstars (0%), 2 TBD (33%). Biggest success: Jay Bruce;   Biggest bust: Geovany Soto
Beaverton Gaping Gash: 1 selection – 1 bust (100%), 0 moderate success (0%), 0 studs / superstars (0%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: N/A;   Biggest bust: Edwin Jackson
Brampton Blue Balls / Nomads: 13 selections – 5 busts (39%), 4 moderate success (31%), 2 studs / 1 superstar (23%), 1 TBD (8%). Biggest success: Prince Fielder; Biggest bust: Matt LaPorta, Jeremy Hermida
Brooklin Legacy: 8 selections – 3 busts (38%), 2 moderate success (25%), 1 stud / 2 superstars (38%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Joey Votto, Evan Longoria;   Biggest bust: Brandon Wood, J.D. Closser
Durham Dick Dogs: 3 selections – 1 bust (33%), 1 moderate success (33%), 0 studs / 1 superstar (33%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Grady Sizemore;   Biggest bust: Joba Chamberlain
Etobicoke Crackheads: 8 selections – 1 bust (12.5%), 3 moderate success (37.5%), 1 stud / 1 superstar (25%), 2 TBD (25%). Biggest success: Ryan Howard;   Biggest bust: Jeremy Reed
Frankford Fury: 10 selections – 2 busts (20%), 6 moderate success (60%), 0 studs / 1 superstar (10%), 1 TBD (10%). Biggest success: Felix Hernandez;   Biggest bust:  Andy Laroche
London Tribe: 7 selections – 4 busts (57%), 2 moderate success (29%), 1 stud / 0 superstars (14%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Mike Stanton;   Biggest bust: Chris Burke, Kazuo Matsui
Pickering Dynasty: 9 selections – 3 busts (33%), 5 moderate success (56%), 0 studs / 1 superstar (11%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Justin Verlander;   Biggest bust: Dallas McPherson
Toronto Motorboats / TCD / NYMD: 11 selections – 5 busts (46%), 2 moderate success (18%), 1 stud / 1 superstar (18%), 2 TBD (18%). Biggest success: Jacoby Ellsbury;   Biggest bust: Khalil Greene
Whitby Poo Dogs: 7 selections – 1 busts (14%), 1 moderate success (14%), 2 studs / 1 superstar (43%), 2 TBD (29%). Biggest success: Ryan Braun;   Biggest bust: Andy Marte

Synopsis:

Some interesting results there, let’s take a look at some key findings:

– Overall most teams have a good mix of big wins and big busts in the RK draft
– Of the 10 players categorized as superstars, they are spread across 9 different teams. Only the Brooklin Legacy have 2, while the Asshats, Gash and Tribe have 0
– The Super Sods have the most Studs/Superstars selected with 4 combined, followed by the Blue Balls/Nomads, Legacy and Poo Dogs all with 3 combined
– The Blue Balls / Nomads and Motorboats / TCD / NYMD franchises tie with the most amount of busts with 5. Is it a coincidence that both franchises have gone through turnover in ownership?
– The Blue Balls / Nomads franchise has made the most RK selections with 13, followed by the Fury, Super Sods and Motorboats/TCD/NYMD with 11
– The Gaping Gash have only made 1 RK selection in the 8-year history, and it was during the first year when it was mandatory. The pick was Edwin Jackson – a bust. The Dick Dogs are next with only 3 selections
– The Poo Dogs have the highest percentage of success in the RK draft with 3 out of their 7 selections being Studs/Superstars, 1 with moderate success and 2 TBD. The Legacy are next for best %, then the Super Sods

Well that brings us to the completion for our stroll through the OBFBL RK draft history, I hope you enjoyed it.

Next up is a 2012 RK Draft preview and combined Top Prospect rankings. That article will be published in the coming week, as we are now only 19 days away from the 2012 RK Draft.

Comments
  1. ASS says:

    I am the greatest!! LOL

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