Archive for the ‘League News’ Category

2016 Rookie Keeper Draft

Posted: March 7, 2016 in League News

1. Gold Balls – Yulieski Gouriel
2. Asshats – Steven Matz
3. Fury – Alex Reyes
4. Gold Balls – Byung Ho Park
5. Poo Dogs – AJ Reed
6. Legacy – Nomar Mazara
7. Gold Balls – Orlando Arcia
8. Dick Dogs – JP Crawford
9. Fury – Tyler Glasnow
10. Tribe – Dansby Swanson
11. Legacy – Jesse Winker
12. Dick Dogs – Blake Snell

Keeper Rankings 2016

Posted: February 17, 2016 in League News

By Ryan Main

Domination was the story in 2015 as Sean’s Etobicoke Crackheads set a new league record with 114 rotos to capture his 2nd Shooter Cup. Sean also set records for largest margin of victory (20.5 rotos), single season strikeouts (1603) and single season WHIP (1.10). The in season battle really came down to who would finish 3rd and 4th as Carey and his Super Sods also had a large margin win in the 2nd place slot. Cheese’ Tribe and Larry’s Dynasty locked down the last two spots, denying both Kim and Chris their first money finish. This year’s rankings show that there are at least 3 teams with a healthy advantage over the rest of the league right out of the gate. The top 3 keeper sets this year all have very different methods for managing their teams throughout the season…whether it be to trade, upgrade through waivers or ride their youth. While any one of these strategies can work, it will be interesting to see if one of these teams or any of those ranked lower will successfully combine all three strategies to knock the Crackheads back into a rebuild.

With our keeper deadline pushed back, this allowed me to pull multiple sets of rankings for both the current season and keeper/dynasty rankings. Each site was given a weight in the composite ranking and I decided for the first time to weigh these all evenly as I’ve found all to be reliable over the past few years.

From the great base these sites provided, I crunched some numbers, resulting in your keeper rankings…hope you enjoy!! All ranks are based on the sites above, so feel free to disagree with the top keepers highlighted on each team. I know we usually find several teams going off the board for players they love that have higher potential than current value suggests. To that end…here’s your top keepers for 2016 and how they rank against each other…

Dick
Well at least Dickie won’t have to stress over who he’s keeping this offseason. He may have to stress over whether Desmond will sign somewhere before keepers are locked in though. Dickie dealt several of his top keepers early in 2015 to pick up his newest keeper (Stanton) and was quiet for the remainder. In order to get younger and strengthen the back end of his keepers, he’ll need to continue dealing and hope for a solid draft, especially since he’s consistently quiet on the waiver wire.

Poo
Bobby’s keepers are always interesting to look at. I’m always surprised he’s ranked low when he always seems to be in the action for the money spots. Bobby’s past success indicates that he is very good at realizing who will exceed their rankings going into the season and his drafts usually back up that theory as he typically draft very well vs the rest of the league. Pitching will be a strength for this team with Arrieta, Harvey and Darvish leading them and Arenado could very well be in the MVP conversation if his growth continues in 2016. I’m sure Bobby will prove this ranking wrong again, but we’ll need to wait to see how.

sex
After several years in the league, Chris’ keepers are some of the oldest overall and while they are solid players, Chris may need to look at trading for younger players before his team starts falling apart. He did pick up Michael Conforto last season and while Conforto may not have been ranked in the top 200, he looked very good and would fit well onto this team. Another risky possibility may be to push Jackie Bradley jr into his set…Bradley ended 2015 on an absolute tear, but it will be tough to know if that was a short period of success or an actual turning point. Chris doesn’t value closers in his draft, so it’s very possible that Melancon could be dropped to fit one of these in.

Sods
Holy crap, would you trade us Mike Trout already! Carey finished in 2nd (again) in 2015 and continues to build his keepers around the always consistent Trout. It’s hard to argue with his process, but his overall team is now the 2nd oldest in the league. Carey made several trades in 2015, moving Adam Jones, Francisco Lindor, Dee Gordon and others, so while he won’t move Trout, he’s definitely trying to make things happen. There’s still a very solid team here, but without any RK assets, Carey will need to draft well to make the money or start looking to deal some of these keepers to build toward a better 2017.

Legacy
I love this team. It feels like Baller has been rebuilding for a while now, but the goal was always obvious…build a young set of high potential keepers in order to establish a long term champion or money maker. So here we are now, with Machado finally hitting his stride, staying healthy and still only 23. Fernandez alongside him is also impossible not to like. The RK’s are some of the best power prospects around and even the backend keepers have potential. If Baller can’t make a run in 2016 (will depend on a lot of youth being consistent), then he should look to move Ellsbury, Freeman and Kemp and should get even stronger for 2017. …but that only has to happen well into the season as he easily has a shot at a money spot in 2016.

Boats

Is anybody else confused on this one? Kim made a solid run in 2016, trailing off at the end as he hit is max starts, but it felt from the start like it was all happening a year too soon. While Kim had worked very well to build his keepers and had a good draft, he dealt McCutchen, Joc Pederson (3 yr RK), Brantley, Rendon, Familia, Rodon (3 yr RK), Soler, Heyward, Billy Hamilton…and on and on and on. The end result isn’t bad….there’s definitely a strong set of keepers here, but can both Tulo and Cargo stay healthy? Will Jones continue his decline? Will Yelich continue his growth? Kim has two extremely good and young starters in Gray and Syndergaard, so there’s no worry there. This team can easily exceed its ranking if the potential hits for all of the players, but I just feel like another year of patience would have had Kim setup better in 2016.

Tribe
Cheese’s team jumped 5 spots in the keeper rankings after a very strong building season where he finished in 3rd place. I know the money finish surprised me, but it’s hard to overlook these keepers now. Looking at the list, we can see Francisco Lindor lurking below and also that Cheese doesn’t have a SS keeper, but has 3 1B keepers…something tells me there’s a change coming there that will only make him stronger. There’s no doubt that Cheese will be challenging for a money spot, if not a shooter cup in 2016. With the overall age of his keepers, the time is now.

Balls
Holy RK’s! There’s plenty of depth here, and while some of the RK’s have tasted MLB time, many still have lots of questions to answer. When will we see Moncada, is Olivera going to be good, or just an old mess? Can Tomas hit for consistent power and play defense well enough to stay in the games? Will Rodon lower his walk rates? Can Bradley recover from being hit in the face? That’s a lot of questions already and that’s only the RK’s. For the keepers, what does the move from Coors do to Dickerson’s value? Can Stroman pitch a full season with the same consistency he’s had in short stints? Will Rendon stay healthy? This will be an interesting season to watch, but it’s hard to predict if this team will be a competitor or a hot mess.

Fury
Is that Hanley I see down below? Wow, how has his stock dropped so far! Conley has the youngest set of keepers in the league this year and, ranked 4th best, that’s very impressive. There are a few good players in the bottom, but it would be hard to substitute any of his top 8. If anything, we can be sure that Conley will be targeting some power bats in the draft and possibly as future keepers via trade. Conley may have some tough decisions to make as to whether he wants to build toward a real beast in 2017 or make a run in 2016.

Crackheads
Still ranked #3 after a shooter cup win is incredibly hard to do, but that’s where Sean sits right now. Will Pollock stay healthy and continue to grow in 2016? Will Blackmon get traded as Colorado continues to target pitching via trade? Can Cruz continue his senior tour of success and will Cano be there alongside him after a good finish in 2015? Some big questions, but Sean definitely has the keepers to make another run. The risk here, with the age of his team, is that he really needs to get younger soon. Without any RK’s, but a couple picks, he may deal them pre-draft to increase his chances to win or he may use those for in season moves. Goldschmidt on his own can bring Sean a wealth of depth if the need arises, but I’m sure he’d also rather hold him if possible.

Asshats
Looks like someone will get a lot of Saves this year. Oh…and is that both Harper and Correa I see? Wow…STUDS. Paul doesn’t do a lot of trading, but targets players that will stick on his team for a long time. Having never won a Shooter Cup, Paul has plenty of chips he could push into the pot if he chooses to make a run….he could do 2 full roster turnovers if he chose to deal those players to close any gaps on his team. This is a contender not only for 2016, but likely the next few years. I’m guessing Paul likely plays out his young team, content to take a money spot for years to come, but he may have other ideas…we’ll have to remind him frequently that he’s never won.

Dynasty
Heeeeeeeere’s Laaaaaary….primed for yet another money spot, if not another Shooter Cup finish. Larry is the only team that has 3 players in the top two tiers, or 4 in the top 3 tiers. His top end keepers are fantastic. He has a great mix of speed, with average and power as well as top end starting pitching and top tier RK’s. Larry is active on all fronts every season and will likely play all of this depth into a very difficult team to beat, but something tells me Chard, Paul and Con will have something to say about that. There aren’t any difficult decisions for Larry on who to keep, so his challenge will mostly be to stay healthy all season and just watch these studs carry him to the finish.

Good luck to all in 2016!

Summary:

End

By Sean Chard

Each year we take a look back at and analyze what would happen if you had no keepers and the last pick of each round. Could you assemble a team strong enough to win the Shooter Cup?

Each year we’ve built a team that that would have won the Shooter Cup, here are the past results:

2010 Hindsight Warriors article
2011 Hindsight Warriors article
2012 Hindsight Warriors article

2013 Hindsight Warriors article

Let’s take a look back at the 2014 Fantasy Baseball season and do it again, and see if we can build a team to defeat the Brampton Blue Balls’ Shooter Cup winning team (with a near record score of 107 rotos).

There were a lot of BIG surprises in 2014, including some impressive rookies – Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig, Jean Segura; major breakouts from emerging stars like Corey Kluber, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Devin Mesoraco; and some old guys still bringing it – Victor Martinez, Jimmy Rollins, Jon Lester, Francisco Rodriguez.

Here is how the rest of team looks like.

2014 HINDSIGHT WARRIORS

C – Devin Mesoraco (round 17) and Yan Gomes (round 11) [using a % of each of their stats for 162 GP]
1B – Chris Carter (round 9)
2B – Jose Altuve (round 1)
3B – Todd Frazier (round 12)
SS – Jimmy Rollins (round 13)
UTIL – Victor Martinez (round 3)
UTIL – Brian Dozier (round 5)
OF – Michael Brantley (round 7)
OF – Ben Revere (round 6)
OF – Corey Dickerson (round 25)
OF – Brandon Moss (round 12)
OF – Charlie Blackmon (round 26)

NOTES:
– Killer comeback seasons from Revere, Martinez, Rollins
– Big breakouts from Altuve, Mesoraco, Frazier, Blackmon, Brantley, Dozier
– Moss joins the Hindsight Warriors for the 2nd straight season

Offensive Totals (and Roto rank):
R = 984 (10 Rotos) HR = 265 (12 Rotos) RBI = 910 (8 Rotos)
SB = 243 (12 Rotos) Batting Average = .285 (12 Rotos) TOTAL = 54 ROTOS

Our Pitching Staff

P – Corey Kluber (round 10)
P – Johnny Cueto (round 8)
P – Jon Lester (round 4)
P – Matt Shoemaker (round 15)
P – Jake Arrieta (round 16)
P – Wade Davis (round 19)
P – Zach Britton (round 20)
P – Francisco Rodriguez (round 18)
P – Dellin Betances (round 22)
P – Santiago Casilla (round 21)
P – Sean Doolittle (round 23)

P – Tony Watson (round 24)

NOTES:
– Big breakouts from Kluber, Arrieta, Britton
– An out of nowhere comeback season by Cueto
– Lots of RP gold, as there seems to be every year

Pitching Totals (and Roto rank):
IP = 1496.1 W = 117 (12 Rotos) SV = 128 (10 Rotos) K = 1616 (12 Rotos)
ERA = 2.34 (12 Rotos) WHIP = 0.99 (12 Rotos) TOTAL = 54 ROTOS

GRAND TOTAL 112 Rotos  and the 2014 SHOOTER CUP!!!     (and a new OBFBL scoring record)
Read through the full spreadsheet for the 2014 Hindsight Warriors HERE.

In summary, any team can win the Shooter Cup this year! Even those that have rebuilt and are down to 4 or 5 keepers. Keepers are great for building the foundation of your team for the year, but your draft and post-draft success (and some luck of course) are equally important. This is something for us to keep in mind as we all prepare for the 2015 Draft, now just 1 day away!

2015 Rookie Keeper Draft

Posted: February 23, 2015 in League News

1. RIVERDALE SEX PANTERS – Yoan Moncada, SS (Red Sox)
Moncada, a 19-year-old switch-hitting infielder, is the most sought-after international prospect in recent history. Said to be a true five-tool talent, scouts have likened his upside to that of Robinson Cano and Chase Utley (in his prime). Prospect specialists at Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have all suggested that Moncada would rank in the top five to 15 prospects in Major League Baseball upon signing, which will make him Boston’s new No. 1 prospect. Unlike recent Cuban signings such as Jose Abreu and Rusney Castillo, however, Moncada will likely require at least one season in the minors.

2. AURORA ASSHATS –  Carlos Correa, SS (Houston Astros)
Hit
: 20/60, Raw Power: 60/65, Game Power: 20/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 65/65, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Correa was seen as a consensus top-three pick in the 2012 draft, but only a portion of the scouting community had him as the top prospect in the draft. The Astros saw him as the best talent and also saw an opportunity to capitalize on this perception (with Buxton seen as the consensus top prospect) to cut a below-slot deal with Correa, allowing them to sign two high schoolers — 3B Rio Ruiz (#43 on this list, since traded to Atlanta in the Evan Gattis deal) and RHP Lance McCullers (#126) — to over-slot deals later in the draft. Correa has really performed since signing and hasn’t added the weight many expected to come and force a move to third base. His 2014 season ended early with a broken fibula, but he’s been back to 100 percent for over a month and is expected to be ready to head to Double-A to start the year.

3. FRANKFORD FURY – Addison Russell, SS (Chicago Cubs)
Hit
: 40/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 40/55, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Russell was known to scouts early in his high school career, then he added a lot of weight in the summer before his draft year, causing most to project him as a third baseman. Russell didn’t like hearing this, so he dropped all the weight by his draft spring, losing some 65 or 70 raw power, but becoming a plus runner with a good chance to stick at shortstop. He went 11th overall to Oakland and surprised from day one with how advanced he was offensively, while continuing to improve defensively. He was dealt to the Cubs last year in the Jeff Samardzija deal and joins a glut of talented young hitters for the Cubs. The biggest remaining question for Russell is if he can still stick at shortstop due to a hitch in his release that limits how quickly he can unload the ball deep in the hole.

4. TORONTO MOTOR BOATS – Joc Pederson, OF (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 45/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Pederson signed for $600,000 in the 11th round of the 2010 draft from a Northern California high school; he wasn’t a consensus prospect and wasn’t seen as having much upside, but flashed average tools and good feel for the game. Something clicked in 2012 and the Dodgers sent him straight to High-A as a 20-year-old, where he became a top 100 type prospect. He raked again in Double-A in 2013, then again in 2014 in Triple-A, with only the Dodgers outfield surplus keeping him on the farm so long. Pederson has average to above average tools across the board, with only his raw power showing plus, though that’s with effort in batting practice. He can play a solid center field for now, but likely settles as a right fielder when he matures. His offensive projection will come down to what kind of hitter he wants to be–the 55 future hit/power tools is a little conservative and converts to .270s and 20 homers–but his controlled aggressive approach should lead to high OBPs either way.

5. LONDON TRIBE – Rusney Casttilo, OF (Boston Red Sox)
Castillo provided a brief glimpse of his potential last September when he made his big league debut less than a month after signing a seven-year, $72.5 million contract with the Red Sox. The 27-year-old impressed to the tune of a .333/.400/.528 batting line to go along with 2 homers and 3 stolen bases over his very limited 10-game sample with Boston.  The Red Sox enter the spring with a bit of a logjam in the outfield, but Castillo’s talent should keep him in the outfield mix (although Boston manager John Farrell told reporters that, if healthy, he expects Shane Victorino to start in right). If Castillo lives up to the hype, he has to be considered the front-runner for AL ROY honors..

6. FRANKFORD FURY – Corey Seager, SS (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Game Power: 40/55, Run: 45/40, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Seager is the younger brother of Mariners 3B Kyle Seager and, in the last few years, both have emerged as a couple of the best infielders in the world. Corey was identified as such earlier, as he went in the middle of the first round in 2012 out of a Charlotte-area high school, but even the Dodgers were surprised by how much and how quickly Seager excelled offensively. He hasn’t failed in any meaningful way yet, including an impressive late-season run in 2014 at Double-A at age 20. If you have to nitpick, the strikeouts are a little higher than some would like, but Seager is 6-foot-4 and that’s to be expected if a bigger guy is going to hit for some power. The Dodgers think Seager is fringy to average defensively at shortstop and will try to keep him there as long as possible, but he should slide over to third base at some point in the next year or two.

7. BROOKLIN LEGACY – Steven Souza Jr. OF (Tampa Rays)
Hit
: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: It would seem easy to like a guy with everyday tools that also really performs. Some scouts are all-in on Souza, but most are at least a little dubious that he’ll be able to keep it up in the majors, due to his approach, size and career path. After a slow start to his career as a 3rd round pick in 2007 out of high school (which included a drug suspension in 2010), Souza started crushing everything he faced in 2012 at age-23 in High-A. He followed that with huge years in 2013 at age-24 in Double-A and in 2014 at age-25 in Triple-A. All three of those seasons are two years old for the target age for a prospect to be at each level, so some scouts don’t even totally buy into the performance. Souza is a late bloomer, but he was also the key to the Wil Myers trade for Tampa Bay and he’ll likely be an Opening Day Starter that may post a couple WAR in 2015 and also may outperform Myers right after the deal. These things are all on the table now, but seemed completely absurd to consider a year or two ago, giving you a sense of how much Souza’s stock has risen in that time.

8. PICKERING DYNASTY – Yasmani Tomas, 3B (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Three years ago while playing in Cuba’s Serie National, Tomas flashed big power potential in slugging 16 homers in 226 plate appearances. But that was 2012 and after a lengthy layoff, Tomas will finally try and make good on all of the potential he showed years ago. The big question is whether Tomas’ power will translate to the American game the way that Jose Abreu’s did on the South Side of Chicago last summer. But Tomas is an entirely different player than Abreu and at a different person. There is no question that his build, swing and raw tools are extremely intriguing, but he is far from a finished product at this point. Tomas hasn’t played in a game since 2013 and will have a tremendous amount of developing to do.

9. FRANKFORD FURY – Lucas Giolito, SP (Washington Nationals)
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 60/70, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Giolito was nationally known by scouts all the way back to when he hit 95 mph at age 15 and he dominated over the summer and winter leading up to his draft year; he was in the running to go 1-1 as one of the top prep pitchers of all-time. His draft year, however, was cut short by a sprained UCL in his elbow that led to Tommy John surgery. The stuff was all the way back this year as he dominated Low-A in his age-19 season in his first full year coming off of surgery. The Nationals were understandably conservative with pitch and innings counts in 2014, wanting to keep Giolito at the same level in a low stress environment so he wouldn’t go too deep in innings/games or be tempted to reach back for the 100 mph heater he’s thrown many times before. Giolito will start in High-A this year and the reigns will be loosened, with an expectation that he’ll get promoted to Double-A at some point in 2015, with the majors only a phone call away.

10. PICKERING DYNASTY – Juilio Urias, SP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 60/65, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 65
Scouting Report: The Mexican-born Urias signed when he turned 16 in August 2012, as part of a package deal from his Mexican team, where he was the headline player, signing for $1.0 million (the Dodgers paid another $800,000 for the other players in the package). The Dodgers brass signed Urias after a famous trip to Mexico. They went to see his teammate C Julian Leon (a solid prospect in his own right), but the 15-year-old Urias sat 90-92 mph with a loose delivery, crisp curveball and good feel to pitch. Later on that same trip, the Dodgers also signed Yasiel Puig, making it one of the most notable scouting trips of all time. The reason Urias was still available what that he had a serious condition in his left eye (and still does–check out his official photo) after a tumor was removed, and some teams were worried about future blindness, though it doesn’t appear to be a problem now. Urias now sits in the low to mid-90’s and touches 97 mph with three plus pitches and advanced command, and he’s still just 18. He’ll start 2015 in Double-A and when he’s called up is simply a function of when the Dodgers want to start his arbitration clock, because we haven’t seen him fail yet, so we don’t even fully know his ceiling.

11. PICKERING DYNASTY – Carlos Rodon, SP (Chicago White Sox)
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 60/70, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Rodon was a notable prospect out of high school, but had a 3rd-4th round grade from most teams, as the fastball sat around 90, there was no projection and some teams had him off the board due to a back issue. His velocity spiked soon after he got to campus at NC State and he was sitting 92-95 mph and flashing a plus-plus slider en route to a dominating freshman season that began hype that Rodon would go #1 overall in 2014. He hit some bumps along the way and only showed flashes of his ultra premium stuff in his draft year, but it all came back after signing, due in part to his overuse in college and his reliance on his knockout slider. He’ll likely start in Triple-A, and should be up at some point this year. He has frontline starter potential, but he’s also shown flashes of a more ordinary pitcher in recent years.

12. BRAMPTON BLUE BALLS – Hector Olivera, 2B (Free Agent)
The 29-year-old Olivera, who turns 30 in April, is said to be seeking a five- or six-year pact along the lines of the contracts signed by Yasmany Tomas (six years, $68.5MM with a year-four opt-out) and Rusney Castillo (seven years, $72.5MM). The 6’2″ Olivera is in the best shape of his career and has “wowed” in open showcases and private workouts, leading many to believe he could hit 15 to 20 homers annually.

13. RIVERDALE SEX PANTHERS – Dalton Pompey, OF (Toronto Blue Jays)
Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 45/45, Game Power: 35/40, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 45/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Pompey was a little-known, young-for-his-class Canadian high schooler in the 2011 draft and stayed under the radar until a strong finish to his 2013 campaign in Low-A. He shot through the system in 2014, going form High-A to the big leagues after he kept impressing at each level when the Blue Jays though he may settle in. Pompey will start in Triple-A or the big leagues in 2015 and is the center fielder of the future, but the tools are more solid everyday than star material.

 

2015 Rookie Keeper MOCK DRAFT

Posted: February 3, 2015 in League News

By Kim Fereria

TRIBE – Yoan Moncada SS
ASSHATS – Yasmany Tomas 3B/OF
BLUE BALLS – Rusney Castillo OF
MOTOR BOATS – Joc Pederson OF
SEX PANTHERS – Carlos Correa SS
CRACKHEADS – Corey Seager SS
CRACKHEADS – Carlos Rondon SP
DYNASTY – Addison Russell SS
FURY – Noah Syndergaard SP
DYNASTY – Dalton Pompey OF
DYNASTY – Francisco Lindor SS
BLUE BALLS – Andrew Heaney SP
SEX PANTHERS – Josh Bell 1B/OF

OBFBL 2015 EARLY MOCK DRAFT

Posted: December 13, 2014 in League News

Its way too early to mock draft…..thats exactly why we do it!!  This mock is based solely on Main’s Composite rankings, not on the specific needs of each team.

ROUND 1 TEAM PICK
#1 Asshats Victor Martinez
#2 Tribe Adam Wainwright
#3 Dynasty Chris Davis
#4 Super Sods David Ortiz
#5 Motor Boats Matt Holliday
#6 Legacy Trevor Rosenthal
#7 Sex Panthers Sean Doolittle
#8 Dick Dogs Alex Rios
#9 Fury Matt Adams
#10 Poo Dogs Mark Trumbo
#11 Blue Balls James Shields
#12 Crackheads Yadier Molina
ROUND 2 TEAM PICK
#13 Crackheads Cliff Lee
#14 Blue Balls Salvador Perez
#15 Poo Dogs Gio Gonzalez
#16 Fury Mark Melancon
#17 Dick Dogs Hyun-Jin Ryu
#18 Sex Panthers Joey Votto
#19 Legacy Marcell Ozuna
#20 Motor Boats Pablo Sandoval
#21 Super Sods Sonny Gray
#22 Dynasty Elvis Andrus
#23 Tribe Koji Uehara
#24 Asshats Gerrit Cole
ROUND 3
#25 Asshats Cody Allen
#26 Tribe JD Martinez
#27 Dynasty Homer Bailey
#28 Super Sods Shin-Soo Choo
#29 Motor Boats Leonys Martin
#30 Legacy Justin Morneau
#31 Sex Panthers Brandon Moss
#32 Dick Dogs Brian McCann
#33 Fury Alex Wood
#34 Poo Dogs Howie Kendrick
#35 Blue Balls Glen Perkins
#36 Crackheads Jake McGee
ROUND 4
#37 Crackheads Chris Carter
#38 Blue Balls Alexei Ramirez
#39 Poo Dogs Daniel Murphy
#40 Fury Wilin Rosario
#41 Dick Dogs Brett Gardner
#42 Sex Panthers Steve Cishek
#43 Legacy Joe Mauer
#44 Motor Boats Doug Fister
#45 Super Sods Jonathan Papelbon
#46 Dynasty Neil Walker
#47 Tribe Lance Lynn
#48 Asshats Charlie Blackmon
ROUND 5
#49 Asshats Ben Zobrist
#50 Tribe Ben Revere
#51 Dynasty Melky Cabrera
#52 Super Sods Marcus Stroman
#53 Motor Boats Torii Hunter
#54 Legacy Fernando Rodney
#55 Sex Panthers Chris Archer
#56 Dick Dogs Evan Gattis
#57 Fury Joaquin Benoit
#58 Poo Dogs Brandon Belt
#59 Blue Balls Adam LaRoche
#60 Crackheads Steve Pearce

 

2015 Keepers

Posted: December 13, 2014 in League News

All of the 2015 Keepers have been named.  Let the OBFBL off-season begin!!!

Download the first official ChardSheet.

Keeper Rankings 2015

Posted: December 9, 2014 in League News

We did it!! After 3 years building, the Blue Balls captured their first shooter cup since taking over the franchise in 2011. Thanks to the Crackheads for putting up a season-long battle and keeping it exciting right to the end. We were sad to lose our Cuban duo of Puig and Cespedes and we had to say goodbye to Pedroia, our franchise cornerstone in prior years to take the final step forward. There are really only three keys to winning each season and if done right, anybody has a shot. Luck is of course a huge factor, but a strong draft (Gordon, Cueto, Gray, V-Mart) can cover up for some bad luck (losing Wieters, Tulo, Zimmerman, Beltran, Cuddyer). Most important to winning, is a good, strong set of keepers. Strong keepers allow you to have flexibility in your lineup as well as being able to trade one player to fill multiple gaps on your roster that have opened…either through a miss during your draft or due to injury.

Given that it’s still early, only a few sites have full rankings for 2015 updated so far. Each site was given a weight in the composite ranking based on their reputation (ESPN – Keepers = 20%, ESPN – Redraft = 20%, RotoChamp = 15%, Rotoworld = 15% and Fangraphs = 30%)

From the great base these sites provided, I crunched some numbers, resulting in your keeper rankings…hope you enjoy!! All ranks are based on the sites above, so feel free to disagree with the top keepers highlighted on each team. I know we usually find several teams going off the board for players they love that have higher potential than current value suggests. To that end…here’s your top keepers from 2014 and how they rank against each other…

2015_Poo
Right out of the gate and I was shocked to see the Poo Dogs ranked so low after a 3rd place finish last year. A rough year from Davis hurt his rank and Braun/Blackmon/Dozier and maybe even Harrison not getting the respect they deserve. Poo Dogs might not have the top 8 ranked keepers, but he had the most players in the top 200 of all the teams and is going to have to make some tough decisions in the coming week. Having cashed last year, it’s not a bad boat to be in, but would it have held him in the money longer if he’d taken this depth and upgraded the keeper set? This may be a low ranking, but the Poo Dogs draft well and if they select the right set of players, could still have a shot.

2015_Tribe
London Tribe spent 2014 rebuilding and has a decent top 6, while the backend has some risk to it. Tanaka doesn’t get any love after an injury plague first season and you have to worry about him possibly blowing his arm out in 2015. Segura had a horrific 2014 season…personally and on the field. There’s still obvious potential in him if he can return to form. Fielder will hopefully become the monster hitter we all thought he could be in Texas. Plenty of overall upside to the Tribe’s roster, but his 2015 looks unlikely to finish in the top half. If they have a good build in 2015, they should come out as a team to contend the following season.

2015_Sexpanthers
RSP has an interesting team. Some very good players, but the low rank shows there’s something missing. For one, still deep in their build, a team with the average age at 28 had better get younger while improving. Also, they’ve been moving valuable youth to upgrade the top keepers, resulting in no RK depth to add value. RSP took a major hit when Taveras, possibly the best young bat in MLB, was taken away. A supplementary RK pick provided some minor value back, but not enough to make up for that loss. While there’s a lot to like here, I still think this team will need two years before they’re competitive.

2015_Motorboats
It’ll be interesting to see how Heyward reacts to the change of scenery. Having grown up in the Atlanta area and playing in front of family and friends half the season, the pressure to perform might have been a bit much for him and he could finally realize his monster potential. It’s interesting that Soler is ranked as high as he is…clearly he showed what he can do, but we have to wonder if the pitching will catch up with him next year and wonder if he’ll adapt. He’s hit at every level and should be fun to watch. TMB has lowest average age of all the teams this year…a full year younger than the next team and 2-3 younger than most. TMB needs a good draft, but it positioned for a money spot if he hits on the right players.

2015_Sods
Trade Mike Trout!! That guy is HORRIBLE…but we’ll take him off your hands. Super Sods has the best keeper in the league and a very solid top 5-6, but beyond that, some work to be done. No RK properties means he’s got very little ability to upgrade before the draft, but he’s proven he can draft very well in the past. With minimally 3 keepers to upgrade and no RK picks, that draft depth will be critical to how long it takes for the Super Sods to be competitive again. One year may be enough for a strong owner like this, but two year would make them a dominant contender…how much patience will they have?

2015_Fury
Another very solid team in the middle of the ranks, Fury will hope that his middle infielders can stay on the field and get back to the dominance they’ve provided in the past. Another lack of RK’s gave Fury’s team a hit on the rankings, but the base set of keepers is very nice. Fury will need to decide soon if they should continue pushing for money spots or instead rebuild as their team age is pushing towards 30 now. As with other teams in this tight range of keeper points, Fury can contend with a solid draft, but has little leverage to increase his chances with one RK pick.

2015_Asshats
The Asshats broke from their norm last year and made a few trades! Getting younger and still with tons of upside to their keepers, the Asshats will look to finish in the money this year and are well positioned to do so. If the Asshats get 1-2 of their young players to maximize their potential and then also build some RK depth, they could easily be a top ranked team for next year, but they’ll have to decide at some point whether they want to build a dynasty team or one that will sit on the outer money spots for years.

2015_DickDogs
I guess pitching won’t be an issue for the Dick Dogs. It’s notable that Votto is sitting outside the top 8…hard to believe he’s not being underrated right now. Similarly, Jay Bruce had an off year and is now in his age 27 season…is the risk here too high to bump one of the players ranked higher or is he worth the risk? Dick Dogs decisions on those two players may drive his season, but if they bounce back, this combination of pitching and hitting/speed could be hard to compete against. If the Dick Dogs had any RK picks or players, they have enough leverage to set themselves up for a title run, but right now I’d expect them to fight for a high money spot.

2015_Legacy
Wow. Legacy jumped 8 spots in the rankings since last year…incredible. Starting with probably the best RK selection since Mike Trout, Abreu led his team with the AL ROY award and it wasn’t close. On the NL side, Billy Hamilton was expected to run away with it, but lost out after tailing off in the 2nd half. While still posting great SB totals and better than expected AVG, Hamilton will hopefully take another step forward in 2015, but in his last RK year, he’ll need to either up his totals or get more consistent to take over a keeper spot. Legacy has, in my opinion, some of the best young keepers in MLB, however he also has some that I feel are very overrated (Longoria, Machado) as they seem to be fan favourites, but have declined since their initial success. Legacy is close, but should take a patient approach, finish in the money, but build to improve the last 2-3 keepers for an extended stay at the top.

2015_BlueBalls
Our current Shooter Cup champion needed to move some of his young, high potential keepers to hold off the Crackheads, but still managed to get back solid players who are closer to decline. This may be the final year before a full rebuild has to start, but could also be used to finish lower, while slowly fixing the age issues. We’ll have to see how the draft goes to get an idea of which course they will take.

2015_Dynasty
Consistently finishing in a money position ended this year, Dynasty is set to get to the top again and battle for the Shooter Cup. Dynasty has a dangerous combination of strong keepers and RK picks/properties that can be used as leverage to upgrade draft positions or his base keeper set. It’ll be interesting to see where he goes as his RK’s could either be moved for value or could contribute themselves if he holds on to them. He also worked the waiver wire well in 2014, ending up with NL ROY deGrom and swapping in someone like that would lower his average team age.

2015_Crack
Well, well, well…do the Crackheads ever finish outside the top 3 in the rankings? Easily the best base keepers, the Crackheads will fight for a Shooter Cup for one more season before they may have to look at some changes. A fantastic combination of power, speed, consistency and high end pitching, we’ll all hope they have horrible draft so that we can keep pace. On top of the base keepers, they also have a couple middle of the pack RK picks to use as leverage to either correct mistakes or cover up injuries along the way or in advance of his draft. The Crackheads are the favourite to take home the 2015 Shooter Cup.

Good luck to all in 2015!

2015_overall

Now that the 2014 OBFBL and MLB seasons are well behind us, and all the awards have been handed out, let’s see how we all did with our preseason predictions.

The full poll results can be accessed at: https://obfbl.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/obfbl-2014-poll.xlsx OR by clicking “League History”, then “Preseason Poll” in the above menu).

OBFBL PREDICTIONS:

  • Four people correctly predicted the Blue Balls to win the Shooter Cup, and the Crackheads to finish in second (Conley, Gunn, Mazgay, Chard)
  • For overall standings predictions, Conley came closest with four teams picked in the right slots, and being close on four others
  • Half the league correctly predicted the Sex Panthers to finish last, in a rebuilding year for them
  • For OBFBL storyline, we’ll give partial credit to the Hamilton breakout prediction by Mazgay, and no credit to Kim’s prediction that the “Brad Miller pick doesn’t look that bad”. Hopefully Fisher’s prediction doesn’t come true
  • Four people correctly guessed that the Crackheads would end up with the most pitching rotos, including Conley, Ferreira, Gunn and Main
  • Three people corrected guessed that the Blue Balls would end up with the most batting rotos, including Conley, Gunn and Main

MLB PREDICTIONS:

  • AL East:  Only one person (Chard) predicted the Orioles to win the division. He also had the highest number of playoff teams predicted correctly at 8 out of 10
  • AL Central – Most had the Tigers, Smith did pick the Royals to win it and they had a nice run as a Wildcard winner
  • AL West – Three people (Smith, Fisher, Chard) picked the Angels to win
  • NL East/Central/West – Nearly everyone correctly picked the Nationals, Cardinals and Dodgers. These three teams were favored to win their divisions and they all did it, which is rare
  • AL Wildcards – A few had the Royals making it
  • NL Wildcards – A few had Pittsburgh and a couple had the Giants. Conley nailed both NL wildcard teams
  • AL / NL Winners and World Series – While several people picked the Giants and Royals to make the playoffs, no one had either team making it all the way to the World Series

NOTE: In the “expert” picks on the right side of the poll spreadsheet, you’ll see that Mike Wilner did pick the Giants to win the World Series

  • Prediction for Blue Jays – predictions were all over the map, the Jays’ rollercoaster season was fun at times but ended up in disappointment, again. The 84-78 prediction by Riley for the Jays record was really close (83-79 actual)
  • Billy Hamilton SB total: His final total was 56 which ended up being below the predicted average of 57.9, but fairly close to it. As for who was closest, Smith gets that with his pick of 63 SBs
  • AL MVP: Trout was the consensus pick (8 out of 11 chose him), and he came through winning it after being runner-up for 2 straight years
  • NL MVP: None of the predicted players were in the running for the MVP award, which went to SP Clayton Kershaw
  • AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber (picked by no one) surged to the award, edging out King Felix (who was picked by Main, Dickie, and Chard)
  • NL Cy Young: Kershaw wins the award unanimously. In our poll he was picked by Smith and Gunn to win it
  • Al Rookie of the Year: Jose Abreu dominated the AL this year and won the award unanimously. He was picked by Conley, Mazgay, Dickie and Fisher
  • NL Rookie of the Year: No one picked Jacob deGrom, who had a very good but not a standout season, and he beat out Billy Hamilton (picked by Smith, Riley, Mazgay, Main and Chard) for the award. Kolten Wong (picked by Conley, Ferreira, Gunn and Dickie) was third.
  • Comeback Players of the Year: No one thought of Chris Young or Casey McGehee who were the winners. Aside from Cueto (picked by Main) who had an outstanding year (but perhaps wasn’t considered for this award), none of the other players predicted were that great and many of them were still busts.

FANTASY PREDICTIONS

AL Breakout Players:

GOOD Picks: Jose Abreu, Yordano Ventura, Kole Calhoun, Sonny Gray, Alex Cobb [all picked by multiple people], Cody Allen (picked by Chard)

BAD Picks: Danny Salazar, Xander Bogaerts, Mike Moustakas, Dan Straily, Ivan Nova, Brad Miller (some picked multiple times as breakouts, see spreadsheet for individual picks)

NL Breakout Players:

GOOD Picks: Christian Yelich (picked by Smith), Marcel Ozuna (picked by Mazgay), Charlie Blackmon (picked by Dickie), Anthony Rendon (nicely picked by Fisher), Billy Hamilton / Alex Wood / Zack Wheeler / Nolan Arenado / Kolten Wong (each picked by multiple people, see spreadsheet for individual picks)

BAD Picks: Tony Cingrani, Chris Owings, Michael Wacha, Archie Bradley (see spreadsheet for individual picks)

AL Fantasy Busts:

GOOD Picks: Wil Myers and Brad Miller (Conley), Dustin Pedroia  and CC Sabathia (Main), Jered Weaver (Mazgay), Alex Rios (Fisher), Prince Fielder / Xander Bogaerts / Josh Hamilton / Brett Lawrie (picked by multiple people, see spreadsheet for individual picks)

BAD Picks: Sonny Gray, Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre, David Ortiz, Felix Hernandez, Koji Uehara, Doug Fister (see spreadsheet for individual picks)

NL Fantasy Busts:

GOOD Picks: Sergio Romo (Conley), Martin Prado (Mazgay), A.J. Burnett, B.J. Upton and David Wright (Main), Chase Headley (Cheese), Bryce Harper and Everth Cabrera (Dickie), Jean Segura (multiple people)

BAD Picks: Doug Fister, Carlos Gomez, Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, Anthony Rizzo, Kenley Jansen, Justin Upton, Huston Street (see spreadsheet for individual picks)

That wraps it up for the poll and results for 2014, I hope you enjoyed the summary report.

We’ll do this all again just prior to the 2015 season!

Thanks,

Sean

2015 Draft Orders

Posted: November 10, 2014 in League News

ENTRY DRAFT
1. Aurora Asshats
2. London Tribe
3. Pickering Dynasty
4. Ajax Super Sods
5. Toronto Motor Boats
6. Brooklin Legacy
7. Riverdale Sex Panthers
8. Durham Dick Dogs
9. Frankford Fury
10. Whitby Poo Dogs
11. Brampton Blue Balls
12. Etobicoke Crackheads

ROOKIE KEEPER
1. London Tribe
2. Aurora Asshats
3. Brampton Blue Balls (Dynasty)
4. Toronto Motor Boats
5. Riverdale Sex Panthers (Legacy)
6. Etobicoke Crackheads (Super Sods)
7. Etobicoke Crackheads (Sex Panthers)
8. Pickering Dynasty (Dick Dogs)
9. Frankford Fury
10. Pickering Dynasty (Poo Dogs)
11. Pickering Dynasty (Crackheads)
12. Brampton Blue Balls