OBFBL 2015 EARLY MOCK DRAFT

Posted: December 13, 2014 in League News

Its way too early to mock draft…..thats exactly why we do it!!  This mock is based solely on Main’s Composite rankings, not on the specific needs of each team.

ROUND 1 TEAM PICK
#1 Asshats Victor Martinez
#2 Tribe Adam Wainwright
#3 Dynasty Chris Davis
#4 Super Sods David Ortiz
#5 Motor Boats Matt Holliday
#6 Legacy Trevor Rosenthal
#7 Sex Panthers Sean Doolittle
#8 Dick Dogs Alex Rios
#9 Fury Matt Adams
#10 Poo Dogs Mark Trumbo
#11 Blue Balls James Shields
#12 Crackheads Yadier Molina
ROUND 2 TEAM PICK
#13 Crackheads Cliff Lee
#14 Blue Balls Salvador Perez
#15 Poo Dogs Gio Gonzalez
#16 Fury Mark Melancon
#17 Dick Dogs Hyun-Jin Ryu
#18 Sex Panthers Joey Votto
#19 Legacy Marcell Ozuna
#20 Motor Boats Pablo Sandoval
#21 Super Sods Sonny Gray
#22 Dynasty Elvis Andrus
#23 Tribe Koji Uehara
#24 Asshats Gerrit Cole
ROUND 3
#25 Asshats Cody Allen
#26 Tribe JD Martinez
#27 Dynasty Homer Bailey
#28 Super Sods Shin-Soo Choo
#29 Motor Boats Leonys Martin
#30 Legacy Justin Morneau
#31 Sex Panthers Brandon Moss
#32 Dick Dogs Brian McCann
#33 Fury Alex Wood
#34 Poo Dogs Howie Kendrick
#35 Blue Balls Glen Perkins
#36 Crackheads Jake McGee
ROUND 4
#37 Crackheads Chris Carter
#38 Blue Balls Alexei Ramirez
#39 Poo Dogs Daniel Murphy
#40 Fury Wilin Rosario
#41 Dick Dogs Brett Gardner
#42 Sex Panthers Steve Cishek
#43 Legacy Joe Mauer
#44 Motor Boats Doug Fister
#45 Super Sods Jonathan Papelbon
#46 Dynasty Neil Walker
#47 Tribe Lance Lynn
#48 Asshats Charlie Blackmon
ROUND 5
#49 Asshats Ben Zobrist
#50 Tribe Ben Revere
#51 Dynasty Melky Cabrera
#52 Super Sods Marcus Stroman
#53 Motor Boats Torii Hunter
#54 Legacy Fernando Rodney
#55 Sex Panthers Chris Archer
#56 Dick Dogs Evan Gattis
#57 Fury Joaquin Benoit
#58 Poo Dogs Brandon Belt
#59 Blue Balls Adam LaRoche
#60 Crackheads Steve Pearce

 

2015 Keepers

Posted: December 13, 2014 in League News

All of the 2015 Keepers have been named.  Let the OBFBL off-season begin!!!

Download the first official ChardSheet.

Keeper Rankings 2015

Posted: December 9, 2014 in League News

We did it!! After 3 years building, the Blue Balls captured their first shooter cup since taking over the franchise in 2011. Thanks to the Crackheads for putting up a season-long battle and keeping it exciting right to the end. We were sad to lose our Cuban duo of Puig and Cespedes and we had to say goodbye to Pedroia, our franchise cornerstone in prior years to take the final step forward. There are really only three keys to winning each season and if done right, anybody has a shot. Luck is of course a huge factor, but a strong draft (Gordon, Cueto, Gray, V-Mart) can cover up for some bad luck (losing Wieters, Tulo, Zimmerman, Beltran, Cuddyer). Most important to winning, is a good, strong set of keepers. Strong keepers allow you to have flexibility in your lineup as well as being able to trade one player to fill multiple gaps on your roster that have opened…either through a miss during your draft or due to injury.

Given that it’s still early, only a few sites have full rankings for 2015 updated so far. Each site was given a weight in the composite ranking based on their reputation (ESPN – Keepers = 20%, ESPN – Redraft = 20%, RotoChamp = 15%, Rotoworld = 15% and Fangraphs = 30%)

From the great base these sites provided, I crunched some numbers, resulting in your keeper rankings…hope you enjoy!! All ranks are based on the sites above, so feel free to disagree with the top keepers highlighted on each team. I know we usually find several teams going off the board for players they love that have higher potential than current value suggests. To that end…here’s your top keepers from 2014 and how they rank against each other…

2015_Poo
Right out of the gate and I was shocked to see the Poo Dogs ranked so low after a 3rd place finish last year. A rough year from Davis hurt his rank and Braun/Blackmon/Dozier and maybe even Harrison not getting the respect they deserve. Poo Dogs might not have the top 8 ranked keepers, but he had the most players in the top 200 of all the teams and is going to have to make some tough decisions in the coming week. Having cashed last year, it’s not a bad boat to be in, but would it have held him in the money longer if he’d taken this depth and upgraded the keeper set? This may be a low ranking, but the Poo Dogs draft well and if they select the right set of players, could still have a shot.

2015_Tribe
London Tribe spent 2014 rebuilding and has a decent top 6, while the backend has some risk to it. Tanaka doesn’t get any love after an injury plague first season and you have to worry about him possibly blowing his arm out in 2015. Segura had a horrific 2014 season…personally and on the field. There’s still obvious potential in him if he can return to form. Fielder will hopefully become the monster hitter we all thought he could be in Texas. Plenty of overall upside to the Tribe’s roster, but his 2015 looks unlikely to finish in the top half. If they have a good build in 2015, they should come out as a team to contend the following season.

2015_Sexpanthers
RSP has an interesting team. Some very good players, but the low rank shows there’s something missing. For one, still deep in their build, a team with the average age at 28 had better get younger while improving. Also, they’ve been moving valuable youth to upgrade the top keepers, resulting in no RK depth to add value. RSP took a major hit when Taveras, possibly the best young bat in MLB, was taken away. A supplementary RK pick provided some minor value back, but not enough to make up for that loss. While there’s a lot to like here, I still think this team will need two years before they’re competitive.

2015_Motorboats
It’ll be interesting to see how Heyward reacts to the change of scenery. Having grown up in the Atlanta area and playing in front of family and friends half the season, the pressure to perform might have been a bit much for him and he could finally realize his monster potential. It’s interesting that Soler is ranked as high as he is…clearly he showed what he can do, but we have to wonder if the pitching will catch up with him next year and wonder if he’ll adapt. He’s hit at every level and should be fun to watch. TMB has lowest average age of all the teams this year…a full year younger than the next team and 2-3 younger than most. TMB needs a good draft, but it positioned for a money spot if he hits on the right players.

2015_Sods
Trade Mike Trout!! That guy is HORRIBLE…but we’ll take him off your hands. Super Sods has the best keeper in the league and a very solid top 5-6, but beyond that, some work to be done. No RK properties means he’s got very little ability to upgrade before the draft, but he’s proven he can draft very well in the past. With minimally 3 keepers to upgrade and no RK picks, that draft depth will be critical to how long it takes for the Super Sods to be competitive again. One year may be enough for a strong owner like this, but two year would make them a dominant contender…how much patience will they have?

2015_Fury
Another very solid team in the middle of the ranks, Fury will hope that his middle infielders can stay on the field and get back to the dominance they’ve provided in the past. Another lack of RK’s gave Fury’s team a hit on the rankings, but the base set of keepers is very nice. Fury will need to decide soon if they should continue pushing for money spots or instead rebuild as their team age is pushing towards 30 now. As with other teams in this tight range of keeper points, Fury can contend with a solid draft, but has little leverage to increase his chances with one RK pick.

2015_Asshats
The Asshats broke from their norm last year and made a few trades! Getting younger and still with tons of upside to their keepers, the Asshats will look to finish in the money this year and are well positioned to do so. If the Asshats get 1-2 of their young players to maximize their potential and then also build some RK depth, they could easily be a top ranked team for next year, but they’ll have to decide at some point whether they want to build a dynasty team or one that will sit on the outer money spots for years.

2015_DickDogs
I guess pitching won’t be an issue for the Dick Dogs. It’s notable that Votto is sitting outside the top 8…hard to believe he’s not being underrated right now. Similarly, Jay Bruce had an off year and is now in his age 27 season…is the risk here too high to bump one of the players ranked higher or is he worth the risk? Dick Dogs decisions on those two players may drive his season, but if they bounce back, this combination of pitching and hitting/speed could be hard to compete against. If the Dick Dogs had any RK picks or players, they have enough leverage to set themselves up for a title run, but right now I’d expect them to fight for a high money spot.

2015_Legacy
Wow. Legacy jumped 8 spots in the rankings since last year…incredible. Starting with probably the best RK selection since Mike Trout, Abreu led his team with the AL ROY award and it wasn’t close. On the NL side, Billy Hamilton was expected to run away with it, but lost out after tailing off in the 2nd half. While still posting great SB totals and better than expected AVG, Hamilton will hopefully take another step forward in 2015, but in his last RK year, he’ll need to either up his totals or get more consistent to take over a keeper spot. Legacy has, in my opinion, some of the best young keepers in MLB, however he also has some that I feel are very overrated (Longoria, Machado) as they seem to be fan favourites, but have declined since their initial success. Legacy is close, but should take a patient approach, finish in the money, but build to improve the last 2-3 keepers for an extended stay at the top.

2015_BlueBalls
Our current Shooter Cup champion needed to move some of his young, high potential keepers to hold off the Crackheads, but still managed to get back solid players who are closer to decline. This may be the final year before a full rebuild has to start, but could also be used to finish lower, while slowly fixing the age issues. We’ll have to see how the draft goes to get an idea of which course they will take.

2015_Dynasty
Consistently finishing in a money position ended this year, Dynasty is set to get to the top again and battle for the Shooter Cup. Dynasty has a dangerous combination of strong keepers and RK picks/properties that can be used as leverage to upgrade draft positions or his base keeper set. It’ll be interesting to see where he goes as his RK’s could either be moved for value or could contribute themselves if he holds on to them. He also worked the waiver wire well in 2014, ending up with NL ROY deGrom and swapping in someone like that would lower his average team age.

2015_Crack
Well, well, well…do the Crackheads ever finish outside the top 3 in the rankings? Easily the best base keepers, the Crackheads will fight for a Shooter Cup for one more season before they may have to look at some changes. A fantastic combination of power, speed, consistency and high end pitching, we’ll all hope they have horrible draft so that we can keep pace. On top of the base keepers, they also have a couple middle of the pack RK picks to use as leverage to either correct mistakes or cover up injuries along the way or in advance of his draft. The Crackheads are the favourite to take home the 2015 Shooter Cup.

Good luck to all in 2015!

2015_overall

Now that the 2014 OBFBL and MLB seasons are well behind us, and all the awards have been handed out, let’s see how we all did with our preseason predictions.

The full poll results can be accessed at: https://obfbl.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/obfbl-2014-poll.xlsx OR by clicking “League History”, then “Preseason Poll” in the above menu).

OBFBL PREDICTIONS:

  • Four people correctly predicted the Blue Balls to win the Shooter Cup, and the Crackheads to finish in second (Conley, Gunn, Mazgay, Chard)
  • For overall standings predictions, Conley came closest with four teams picked in the right slots, and being close on four others
  • Half the league correctly predicted the Sex Panthers to finish last, in a rebuilding year for them
  • For OBFBL storyline, we’ll give partial credit to the Hamilton breakout prediction by Mazgay, and no credit to Kim’s prediction that the “Brad Miller pick doesn’t look that bad”. Hopefully Fisher’s prediction doesn’t come true
  • Four people correctly guessed that the Crackheads would end up with the most pitching rotos, including Conley, Ferreira, Gunn and Main
  • Three people corrected guessed that the Blue Balls would end up with the most batting rotos, including Conley, Gunn and Main

MLB PREDICTIONS:

  • AL East:  Only one person (Chard) predicted the Orioles to win the division. He also had the highest number of playoff teams predicted correctly at 8 out of 10
  • AL Central – Most had the Tigers, Smith did pick the Royals to win it and they had a nice run as a Wildcard winner
  • AL West – Three people (Smith, Fisher, Chard) picked the Angels to win
  • NL East/Central/West – Nearly everyone correctly picked the Nationals, Cardinals and Dodgers. These three teams were favored to win their divisions and they all did it, which is rare
  • AL Wildcards – A few had the Royals making it
  • NL Wildcards – A few had Pittsburgh and a couple had the Giants. Conley nailed both NL wildcard teams
  • AL / NL Winners and World Series – While several people picked the Giants and Royals to make the playoffs, no one had either team making it all the way to the World Series

NOTE: In the “expert” picks on the right side of the poll spreadsheet, you’ll see that Mike Wilner did pick the Giants to win the World Series

  • Prediction for Blue Jays – predictions were all over the map, the Jays’ rollercoaster season was fun at times but ended up in disappointment, again. The 84-78 prediction by Riley for the Jays record was really close (83-79 actual)
  • Billy Hamilton SB total: His final total was 56 which ended up being below the predicted average of 57.9, but fairly close to it. As for who was closest, Smith gets that with his pick of 63 SBs
  • AL MVP: Trout was the consensus pick (8 out of 11 chose him), and he came through winning it after being runner-up for 2 straight years
  • NL MVP: None of the predicted players were in the running for the MVP award, which went to SP Clayton Kershaw
  • AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber (picked by no one) surged to the award, edging out King Felix (who was picked by Main, Dickie, and Chard)
  • NL Cy Young: Kershaw wins the award unanimously. In our poll he was picked by Smith and Gunn to win it
  • Al Rookie of the Year: Jose Abreu dominated the AL this year and won the award unanimously. He was picked by Conley, Mazgay, Dickie and Fisher
  • NL Rookie of the Year: No one picked Jacob deGrom, who had a very good but not a standout season, and he beat out Billy Hamilton (picked by Smith, Riley, Mazgay, Main and Chard) for the award. Kolten Wong (picked by Conley, Ferreira, Gunn and Dickie) was third.
  • Comeback Players of the Year: No one thought of Chris Young or Casey McGehee who were the winners. Aside from Cueto (picked by Main) who had an outstanding year (but perhaps wasn’t considered for this award), none of the other players predicted were that great and many of them were still busts.

FANTASY PREDICTIONS

AL Breakout Players:

GOOD Picks: Jose Abreu, Yordano Ventura, Kole Calhoun, Sonny Gray, Alex Cobb [all picked by multiple people], Cody Allen (picked by Chard)

BAD Picks: Danny Salazar, Xander Bogaerts, Mike Moustakas, Dan Straily, Ivan Nova, Brad Miller (some picked multiple times as breakouts, see spreadsheet for individual picks)

NL Breakout Players:

GOOD Picks: Christian Yelich (picked by Smith), Marcel Ozuna (picked by Mazgay), Charlie Blackmon (picked by Dickie), Anthony Rendon (nicely picked by Fisher), Billy Hamilton / Alex Wood / Zack Wheeler / Nolan Arenado / Kolten Wong (each picked by multiple people, see spreadsheet for individual picks)

BAD Picks: Tony Cingrani, Chris Owings, Michael Wacha, Archie Bradley (see spreadsheet for individual picks)

AL Fantasy Busts:

GOOD Picks: Wil Myers and Brad Miller (Conley), Dustin Pedroia  and CC Sabathia (Main), Jered Weaver (Mazgay), Alex Rios (Fisher), Prince Fielder / Xander Bogaerts / Josh Hamilton / Brett Lawrie (picked by multiple people, see spreadsheet for individual picks)

BAD Picks: Sonny Gray, Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre, David Ortiz, Felix Hernandez, Koji Uehara, Doug Fister (see spreadsheet for individual picks)

NL Fantasy Busts:

GOOD Picks: Sergio Romo (Conley), Martin Prado (Mazgay), A.J. Burnett, B.J. Upton and David Wright (Main), Chase Headley (Cheese), Bryce Harper and Everth Cabrera (Dickie), Jean Segura (multiple people)

BAD Picks: Doug Fister, Carlos Gomez, Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, Anthony Rizzo, Kenley Jansen, Justin Upton, Huston Street (see spreadsheet for individual picks)

That wraps it up for the poll and results for 2014, I hope you enjoyed the summary report.

We’ll do this all again just prior to the 2015 season!

Thanks,

Sean

2015 Draft Orders

Posted: November 10, 2014 in League News

ENTRY DRAFT
1. Aurora Asshats
2. London Tribe
3. Pickering Dynasty
4. Ajax Super Sods
5. Toronto Motor Boats
6. Brooklin Legacy
7. Riverdale Sex Panthers
8. Durham Dick Dogs
9. Frankford Fury
10. Whitby Poo Dogs
11. Brampton Blue Balls
12. Etobicoke Crackheads

ROOKIE KEEPER
1. London Tribe
2. Aurora Asshats
3. Brampton Blue Balls (Dynasty)
4. Toronto Motor Boats
5. Riverdale Sex Panthers (Legacy)
6. Etobicoke Crackheads (Super Sods)
7. Etobicoke Crackheads (Sex Panthers)
8. Pickering Dynasty (Dick Dogs)
9. Frankford Fury
10. Pickering Dynasty (Poo Dogs)
11. Pickering Dynasty (Crackheads)
12. Brampton Blue Balls

OBFBL Season Records

Posted: August 7, 2014 in League News

by Sean Chard

With less than 2 months to go in the OBFBL season, it’s a good time to look at the Record Book and see which Season records are at risk to fall this year.

OBFBL Season Records

A quick glance at the batting records and all of them are at no risk whatsoever to fall, and they are likely to remain intact forever from the 2006/2007 seasons when they were set.

In fact, if we tracked the totals for each stat for team with the most each year, this season we have break the record for the lowest winning total for several of the offensive categories.

With the dreadful offense numbers of course, this also means that some of the pitching records are at risk.

  • Wins: Record is 125 (set in 2008 by Blue Balls franchise) and is safe
  • Saves: Record is 213 (set in 2012 by Tribe), currently the Crackheads have 159 and would be on pace to break the record
  • Strikeouts: Record is 1508 (set in 2013 by Dynasty), currently the Crackheads are at 1107 (in 1054.2 IP) and are on pace to break the record
  • ERA: Record is 3.04 (set in 2013 by Dynasty), currently the Tribe are at 2.92 and have a good shot to break the record
  • WHIP: Record is 1.10 (set in 2004 by Sex Panthers franchise and the oldest standing Season record), currently the Blue Balls are at 1.14 and Tribe at 1.15. Both have a chance to get under 1.10 but it may be difficult

 

ADDITIONALLY:  The record for highest ever scoring season (Poo Dogs in 2008 at 110 rotos) is at risk, with the Blue Balls currently at 109 rotos and with points to gain

 

The Career Records may be changing hands after this year also. These will be updated on the site and a separate post in the offseason.

OBFBL 2014 Poll

Posted: April 23, 2014 in League News
Tags:

The annual OBFBL poll was completed by (nearly) all of the participants. The poll responses were received over a 2-week period, starting a few days before the season and then continuing nearly 2 weeks into it. As such, the responses for some may have some information already about the season’s results, but not too much.

Let’s dive into some of the observations within the poll.  Link to POLL here.

OBFBL Standings:

  • 7 of 11 poll respondents picked the Etobicoke Crackheads to win the Shooter Cup this year and they are the consensus favourite
  • Closely behind are the Brampton Blue Balls, with 4 1st place votes. It would be the 1st title for the Blue Balls
  • Following those two teams, the predictions are all over the board, with the consensus picks having the Dick Dogs and Dynasty also finishing in the money
  • Towards the bottom of the consensus results, the Poo Dogs, Tribe, Legacy and Sex Panthers are all believed to finish down in the standings

OBFBL Predictions:

  • A wide range of responses for “Storyline of the Year” from the Crackheads or Blue Balls capturing the title, to rapings and other violent acts, to breakout seasons by Brad Miller and Billy Hamilton, and even a wild prediction of 2 owners not returning for next year.  We’ll see which of these storylines comes true
  • Most Pitching Rotos: Crackheads with 4 votes, Dick Dogs with 3
  • Most Batting Rotos: Crackheads with 4 votes, Blue Balls with 3
  • Most Keepers the Same:  6 votes for the Asshats
  • Fewest Keepers the Same: 3 votes each for the Legacy and Sex Panthers

MLB Predictions:

  • AL East:  Rays (5 picks), Red Sox (3), Yankees (2), Orioles (1), Blue Jays (0)
  • AL Central: Tigers (9 picks), Royals (1), Indians (1)
  • AL West: Athletics (5 picks), Angels (3), Mariners (3)
  • NL East: Nationals (9 picks), Braves (2)
  • NL Central: Cardinals (8 picks), Pirates (3)
  • NL West: Dodgers (9 picks), Giants (1), Diamondbacks (1)
  • AL Wild Cards: Red Sox (4 picks), Royals (4), Blue Jays (3)
  • NL Wild Cards: Pirates (5 picks), Cardinals (3), Braves (3)
  • AL Winner: Tigers (4 picks), Rays (4 picks), Orioles (1), Angels (1), Red Sox (1)
  • NL Winner: Dodgers (5 picks), Nationals (3), Cardinals (3)
  • World Series: Dodgers (5 picks), Nationals (3), Cardinals (2), Rays (1)

 

  • Predictions for Blue Jays: All over the Map, from wildcard winner to a very bad team that gets blown up and GM/manager fired
  • Billy Hamilton SB total:  Average of 57.9 SBs,  High total = 80,   Low total = 28

 

  • AL MVP: Mike Trout (8 votes), Evan Longoria/Wil Myers/Prince Fielder (1 each)
  • NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen (3 votes), Bryce Harper (2 votes), Hanley Ramirez/Matt Carpenter/Carlos Gomez/Paul Goldschmidt/Freddie Freeman/Carlos Gonzalez (1 each)
  • AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish (4 votes), Felix Hernandez (3 votes), James Shields/Max Scherzer/Alex Cobb/David Price (1 each)
  • NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg (5 votes), Adam Wainwright (2 votes), Clayton Kershaw (2 votes), Jose Fernandez/Madison Bumgarner (1 each)
  • AL Rookie of the Year: Jose Abreu (4 votes), Nick Castellanos (2 votes), Yordano Ventura (2 votes), Masahiro Tanaka/Xander Bogaerts/Chris Colabello (1 each)
  • NL Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton (5 votes), Kolten Wong (4 votes), Archie Bradley (2 votes)
  • AL Comeback Player: Grady Sizemore (5 votes), Albert Pujols (2 votes), Josh Hamilton/Corey Hart/Derek Jeter/Michael Pineda (1 each)
  • NL Comeback Player: Matt Kemp (3 votes), Ryan Braun (2 votes), Tim Hudson/Jason Heyward/Johnny Cueto/Curtis Granderson/Troy Tulowitzki (1 each)

Fantasy Predictions:

  • AL Breakout Players: 2 or more votes for – Alex Cobb, Sonny Gray, Danny Salazar, Michael Pineda, Kole Calhoun, Yordano Ventura, Taijuan Walker, Brad Miller, Adam Eaton
  • NL Breakout Players: 2 or more votes for – Andrew Cashner, Billy Hamilton, Nolan Arenado, Archie Bradley, Chris Owings, Alex Wood
  • AL Fantasy Busts: 2 or more votes for – Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Josh Hamilton, Prince Fielder
  • NL Fantasy Busts: 2 or more votes for – Yasiel Puig, Jean Segura, Doug Fister

 

Thanks to everyone (except 1) for filling out the survey. It’s always fun to look back on this midseason and at the end of the year and see how we did with our predictions.

Sean

By Sean Chard

Each year we take a look back at and analyze what would happen if you had no keepers and the last pick of each round. Could you assemble a team strong enough to win the Shooter Cup?

Each year we’ve taken a look back to build a team that would have won the Shooter Cup, here are the past results:

2010 Hindsight Warriors article
2011 Hindsight Warriors article
2012 Hindsight Warriors article

Let’s take a look back at the 2013 Fantasy Baseball season and do it again, and see if we can build a team to defeat the Frankford Fury’s 2013 Shooter Cup winning team.

There were a lot of BIG surprises in 2013, including some impressive rookies – Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig, Jean Segura; major breakouts from emerging stars like Carlos Gomez, Matt Harvey (before TJ), Pedro Alvarez; and some old guys still bringing it – Alfonso Soriano, Michael Cuddyer, Koji Uehara.

Here is how the rest of team looks like.

2013 HINDSIGHT WARRIORS

C – Jonathan Lucroy (round 9) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (round 18) [using a % of each of their stats for 162 GP]
1B – Brandon Moss (round 13)
2B – Matt Carpenter (round 10)
3B – Pedro Alvarez (round 4)
SS – Jean Segura (round 14)
UTIL – Michael Cuddyer (round 7)
UTIL – Josh Donaldson (round 20)
OF – Carlos Gomez (round 1)
OF – Hunter Pence (round 3)
OF – Yasiel Puig (round 6)
OF – Alfonso Soriano (round 11)
OF – Coco Crisp (round 8)

NOTES:
– Killer comeback seasons from Crisp, Pence, Saltalamacchia
– Big breakouts from Gomez, Puig, Alvarez, Donaldson, Carpenter
– Soriano joins the Hindsight Warriors for the 2nd straight season

Offensive Totals (and Roto rank):
R = 1003 (8 Rotos) HR = 280 (12 Rotos) RBI = 967 (9 Rotos)
SB = 188 (12 Rotos) Batting Average = .284 (11 Rotos) TOTAL = 52 ROTOS

P – Matt Harvey (round 2)
P – Anibal Sanchez (round 5)
P – Jose Fernandez (round 21)
P – Hisashi Iwakuma (round 22)
P – Justin Masterson (round 23)
P – Ubaldo Jimenez (round 24)
P – Koji Uehara (round 25)
P – Edward Mujica (round 26)
P – Jim Henderson (round 27)
P – Joaquin Benoit (round 28)
P – Brad Ziegler (round 29)

NOTES:
– Big breakouts from Fernandez, Harvey, Iwakuma
– An out of nowhere comeback season by Masterson
– Lots of RP gold, as there seems to be every year

Pitching Totals (and Roto rank):
IP = 1500 W = 99 (11 Rotos) SV = 123 (7 Rotos) K = 1493 (12 Rotos)
ERA = 2.57 (12 Rotos) WHIP = 1.06 (12 Rotos) TOTAL = 54 ROTOS

GRAND TOTAL 106 Rotos  and the 2013 SHOOTER CUP!!!
Read through the full spreadsheet for the 2013 Hindsight Warriors HERE.

In summary, any team can win the Shooter Cup this year! Even those that have rebuilt and are down to 4 or 5 keepers. Keepers are great for building the foundation of your team for the year, but your draft and post-draft success (and some luck of course) are equally important. This is something for us to keep in mind as we all prepare for the 2014 Draft, now just 1 day away!

2014 ROOKIE KEEPER DRAFT

Posted: February 23, 2014 in League News

1. Pickering Dynasty – Bryon Buxton, OF
Buxton took the Minor Leagues by storm in his first full professional season, showing why many evaluators had rated him as the top talent in the 2012 Draft class. He excelled in the Midwest League and the Florida State League, and he finished the year by getting a taste of more experienced competition in the Arizona Fall League.Everywhere Buxton went, he stood out as the top talent on the field and a legitimate five-tool player. He has a simple, direct swing and creates excellent bat speed. Buxton’s power has already been better than expected and scouts expect it to improve more as he grows. His speed grades out at the top of the scale and he knows how to use it on the basepaths. Defensively, Buxton covers plenty of ground in center field and has good instincts in the outfield.
The Twins are traditionally conservative in their developmental timelines, but Buxton has already put himself on an accelerated track to the Major Leagues.

2. Brooklin Legacy – Jose Abreu, 1B
Abreu became the latest Cuban to land a large Major League contract after signing with the White Sox during the offseason. The 27-year-old has been known as a power hitter for a while, a fact he proved by batting .360 with three homers and nine RBIs in six games during the 2013 World Baseball Classic. Abreu’s power should transfer to the Majors almost immediately, and he also could hit for average. And though the 2014 White Sox are not projected to boast an elite lineup, Abreu should receive his share of RBI chances out of the middle of their order.

3. London Tribe – Masahiro Tanaka, SP
The hype surrounding Tanaka swelled to epic proportions after it was announced in December that the Rakuten Golden Eagles would post their superstar right-hander, allowing him to sign with a big league team. Tanaka overwhelmed his Japanese League opponents in 2013, finishing the season with a perfect 24-0 record, a 1.27 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP and a 183-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 212 innings. After reaching a deal with the Yankees in January, the 25-year-old will enter 2014 with immediate ace potential.

4. Pickering Dynasty – Javier Baez, SS
Baez has lived up to his lofty expectations since the Cubs selected him eighth overall in 2011. He reached Double-A Tennessee two years later as a 20-year-old and his 75 extra-base hits and 111 RBIs led the Minor Leagues.
Baez generates incredible bat speed, resulting in big power. He also has the ability to hit for average if he is able to develop more plate discipline. But he is a good bad-ball hitter and often finds a way to get his bat on the ball in spite of his aggressiveness.
Baez isn’t as advanced defensively. His average speed begets solid range and he has a good arm, but he still commits too many errors. Some scouts feel he is destined for a move to third or second base, which be eased by Starlin Castro’s presence in Chicago. No matter where he plays, Baez’s bat has the ability to make him a star.

5. Aurora Asshats – Taijuan Walker, SP
A year after being the youngest pitcher, by far, in the Southern League, Walker returned to Double-A Jackson to start 2013. He fared much better the second time around and pitched his way to Seattle for his Major League debut.
Walker came late to pitching after playing mostly shortstop and basketball in high school and is still developing from a thrower into a pitcher. That is especially apparent in his command, which he will need to tighten to reach his lofty potential. He gets easy velocity on his fastball, throwing it in the mid to upper 90s. He also throws a changeup, curveball and a slider that often moves like a cutter. All of his offspeed pitches have the potential to be above-average offerings.
Walker’s youth, athleticism, size and stuff all give him the chance to develop into a frontline Major League starter.

6. Pickering Dynasty – George Springer, OF
Springer had a season for the ages in 2013. He became the third Minor Leaguer in 40 years to hit 30 home runs and steal 40 bases, and he finished three homers shy of the first 40-40 season in the Minor Leagues in at least 50 years.
Springer’s power and speed stand out the most, but he is a solid all-around player. He has the ability to hit for average, though there is a lot of swing-and-miss in his game that he will need to cut down on. Springer’s speed translates well to the outfield, where he covers a lot of ground. His strong arm would play well in right field if that’s where he ends up. He earns high marks for his makeup and energy.
Springer ended the 2013 season with Triple-A Oklahoma City, and it won’t be long before he makes his Major League debut.

7. Whitby Poo Dogs – Archie Bradley, SP
The D-backs had two of the first seven picks of the 2011 Draft and wasted no time grabbing high-end pitching. They took Trevor Bauer with the third overall pick and selected Bradley four picks later. Bradley reached Double-A Mobile in 2013 and his 1.84 ERA ranked third in all of the Minor Leagues.
Bradley throws his fastball in the mid-90s and can reach the upper 90s when he needs to. The steep downhill angle he throws from and good sinking action on the pitch combine to produce a lot of ground balls. He complements his plus-plus fastball with an above-average 12-to-6 curveball and changeup that will likely be at least a Major League-average offering.
Bradley has improved his command and earns praise for his demeanor on the mound. His stuff, size and makeup make him the best pitcher in the Minor Leagues and it isn’t difficult to project him as a frontline starter soon.

8. Toronto Motor Boats – Kris Bryant, 3B
Bryant began his incredible run in 2013 by winning the Golden Spikes Award at the University of San Diego and ended it with the MVP in the Arizona Fall League. In between, the Cubs made him the No. 2 overall pick and he crushed pitching everywhere he went.
Bryant has well above-average power and drives the ball to all fields. There is some swing-and-miss in his game, but he has worked to eliminate some of the holes in his swing and projects to be able to hit for a good average.
Bryant has a strong arm and is more athletic than his large frame would suggest. He should be able to stay at third base, but he played some outfield in college and would be able to handle a move to right field if necessary. Bryant wowed in his professional debut and the Cubs likely won’t have to wait long for him to get to Wrigley.

9. Brooklin Legacy – Alex Guerrero, 2B
Guerrero defected from Cuba in 2013 before signing a four-year deal with the Dodgers in October. The 27-year-old is a bit of an enigma at this point, but he reportedly has a solid power-speed profile that could help him earn everyday at-bats as Los Angeles’ second baseman in 2014.
Originally my pick, I started to get cold feet.  Talks of poor d in his transition to 2bag and a platoon at 2 bag scared me. But if you go deep and query the true dodgers followers. No matter how the season begins, he’s the starter sooner rather than later. With projections of .277, 25 jacks and 77 RBI out of second base, it must be so. Good track record of Cubans. Cespedes. Puig. They are so damn intriguing. Add Abreu and it’s a Cubas year. I’m all in on #cuba. Power is good. If I wasn’t in the shitter I would drop my phone and walk away. It’s been done!!!

10. London Tribe – Nick Castellanos, 3B
Castellanos established himself as one of the best prep hitters in the 2010 Draft class and has lived up to his billing as a professional. He was named Futures Game MVP in 2012 and reached Triple-A the following season as a 21-year old.
Castellanos has a smooth swing and has shown the ability to make adjustments at the plate. He drives the ball to all fields and began to unlock his raw power in 2013. He is a below-average runner.
Castellanos spent the last year making himself a serviceable left fielder, but will now return to third base as Miguel Cabrera slides back across the diamond to first base. Castellanos is a capable defender at third base with a good enough arm to man the hot corner. He will get a chance to step into that role in the Major Leagues in 2014.

11. Riverdale Sex Panthers – Gegory Polanco, OF
After a breakout 2012, Polanco built on that progress with another big season in 2013. He appeared in the Futures Game and climbed three levels to end the season at Triple-A Indianapolis. Just for good measure, he won the MVP in the Dominican Winter League.
Polanco has five-tool potential. He is an aggressive hitter, but doesn’t strike out a ton and has become more willing to take a walk. His swing does have a tendency to get long, a problem compounded by his lanky frame. Still, with his hands and bat speed, he has the potential to be a special hitter with above-average power.
Polanco has plus speed and covers ground well in the outfield. He is a center fielder now, but he has a strong arm and could slide over to right field if necessary. That could be his spot in PNC Park before too long.
12. London Tribe – RE-UP Miguel Sano, 3B
Sano was in the spotlight even before he signed with the Twins in 2009 for $3.15 million, a club record for international players. But since reaching the professional ranks, he has shown what all the fuss is about.
Sano has prodigious raw power and knows how to use it in games. He hit 35 home runs between Class A Advanced Fort Myers and Double-A new Britain in 2013. With his power, however, comes a lot of swing and miss. He has struck out more than 140 times in both of his years in full-season ball.
Sano’s defense continues to be a question mark. He has made strides at third base, but some scouts still believe he is destined to move across the diamond to first base. Sano’s arm is plenty strong enough for third base and he does have a chance to remain on the hot corner. But if he keeps pounding the ball, the Twins will find somewhere to play him, possibly soon, in the Major Leagues.

OBFBL First 2014 MOCK DRAFT

Posted: December 16, 2013 in League News
Tags: , , ,

The keepers are announced, the offseason trading has begun already with 3 deals made so far.

Let’s take a look at the top players available in the upcoming 2014 OBFBL draft.  Using the composite player rankings from Main’s worksheet (that he used to create the Keeper Rankings feature), the following MOCK draft was created. Note: the players selected for the teams are solely based on the ranking and the mock does not take into account specific team needs or their expected plans for 2014.  The “Overall Rank” column shown is the composite ranking from Ryan’s worksheet.

Look below the table for some analysis of the MOCK draft, the first of several we’ll have before the OBFBL draft in March.

ROUND #1 TEAM PLAYER POSITION(s) OVERALL RANK
PICK 1.1 Crackheads Elvis Andrus SS #63
PICK 1.2 Blue Balls Carlos Santana C/1B #67
PICK 1.3 Motorboats Mike Minor SP #72
PICK 1.4 Tribe Homer Bailey SP #77
PICK 1.5 Asshats Brandon Phillips 2B #82
PICK 1.6 Blue Balls (via Legacy) James Shields SP #83
PICK 1.7 Poo Dogs Ben Zobrist 2B/SS/OF #87
PICK 1.8 Dick Dogs Hisashi Iwakuma SP #88
PICK 1.9 Super Sods Jonathan Lucroy C #94
PICK 1.10 Fury Alex Cobb SP #95
PICK 1.11 Dynasty Hyun-Jin Ryu SP #97
PICK 1.12 Dynasty (via Sex Panthers) Jose Altuve 2B #98
         
ROUND #2 TEAM PLAYER POSITION OVERALL RANK
PICK 2.1 Dynasty (via Sex Panthers) Carlos Beltran OF #100
PICK 2.2 Dynasty Carlos Granderson OF #101
PICK 2.3 Fury Patrick Corbin SP #102
PICK 2.4 Super Sods Glen Perkins RP #104
PICK 2.5 Dick Dogs A.J. Burnett SP #105
PICK 2.6 Poo Dogs Jered Weaver SP #106
PICK 2.7 Legacy Clay Buchholz SP #107
PICK 2.8 Asshats Kris Medlen SP #108
PICK 2.9 Tribe Martin Prado 2B/3B/OF #109
PICK 2.10 Motorboats Joe Nathan RP #111
PICK 2.11 Blue Balls Wilin Rosario C #112
PICK 2.12 Crackheads Jayson Werth OF #113
         
ROUND #3 TEAM PLAYER POSITION OVERALL RANK
PICK 3.1 Crackheads Chase Utley 2B #116
PICK 3.2 Blue Balls Koji Uehara RP #117
PICK 3.3 Motorboats Austin Jackson OF #118
PICK 3.4 Tribe Rafael Soriano RP #119
PICK 3.5 Asshats Salvador Perez C #123
PICK 3.6 Legacy Aaron Hill 2B #124
PICK 3.7 Poo Dogs Trevor Rosenthal RP #125
PICK 3.8 Dick Dogs Jason Grilli RP #126
PICK 3.9 Super Sods Shane Victorino OF #127
PICK 3.10 Fury CC Sabathia SP #130
PICK 3.11 Dynasty Francisco Liriano SP #131
PICK 3.12 Sex Panthers Jeff Samardzija SP #132
         
ROUND #4 TEAM PLAYER POSITION OVERALL RANK
PICK 4.1 Dynasty (via Sex Panthers) Lance Lynn SP #133
PICK 4.2 Dynasty Jonathan Papelbon RP #134
PICK 4.3 Fury Doug Fister SP #135
PICK 4.4 Super Sods Andrelton Simmons SS #137
PICK 4.5 Dick Dogs Dexter Fowler OF #139
PICK 4.6 Poo Dogs Sergio Romo RP #140
PICK 4.7 Blue Balls (via Legacy) Matt Garza SP #141
PICK 4.8 Asshats Hiroki Kuroda SP #142
PICK 4.9 Tribe Asdrubal Cabrera SS #143
PICK 4.10 Motorboats Brandon Belt 1B #145
PICK 4.11 Blue Balls Johnny Cueto SP #146
PICK 4.12 Crackheads Kendrys Morales 1B #147
         
ROUND #5 TEAM PLAYER POSITION OVERALL RANK
PICK 5.1 Crackheads Andrew Cashner SP #148
PICK 5.2 Blue Balls Jake Peavy SP #152
PICK 5.3 Motorboats Michael Cuddyer 1B/OF #153
PICK 5.4 Tribe Jon Lester SP #155
PICK 5.5 Asshats Derek Holland SP #156
PICK 5.6 Legacy Victor Martinez 1B #157
PICK 5.7 Poo Dogs Matt Wieters C #158
PICK 5.8 Dick Dogs Jed Lowrie 2B/SS #159
PICK 5.9 Super Sods Tony Cingrani SP #160
PICK 5.10 Fury Mark Teixeira 1B #161
PICK 5.11 Dynasty Coco Crisp OF #163
PICK 5.12 Sex Panthers Grant Balfour RP #164

ANALYSIS

  • 24 of the 60 players (40%) in the MOCK are Starting Pitchers, which is typical of our OBFBL drafts with pitchers less kept despite their ranking, due to higher risk
  • 9 closers taken in the MOCK.  While the mock does show closers starting to be taken in the 2nd round, which matches our OBFBL draft, we know that there is a higher frequency of them taken in the first 5 rounds, than the 9 in the mock
  • The 5 catchers taken in the MOCK are all good contributors, and they’ll go within the first 5 rounds of the actual draft likely to those that need that position. The order they go in will depend on team needs
  • Ben Zobrist and Martin Prado fill a nice utility knife need as usual with 3 positions eligible each, while Jed Lowrie and Michael Cuddyer have 2 positions
  • The OF position isn’t well represented in the MOCK, while the 3B options are very limited