Fantasy Baseball NewsI am heading in for shoulder surgery tomorrow so I may not have these complete for a few weeks, but check out the new team page layout – https://obfbl.wordpress.com/teams-2/pickering-dynasty/
I look forward to your feedback (positive and constructive) in the comment section below.
Today in an anti-climatic online celebration we finally open the OBFBL Hall of Fame!
The concept of having a Hall of Fame dedicated to the OBFBL was an idea I had for years and our 10th season was the perfect time to bring it to life. The intention is to highlight those baseball players that have had significant fantasy baseball success in the OBFBL. Several players in the 10 year history of the OBFBL have been crucial to teams winning the Shooter Cup, and others have had prolonged high performance results.
Players accumulate points each year in 4 ways:
1) Being a keeper
2) Being ranked in the top 20 players (based on final results that year)
3) Being a rookie keeper. With bonus points for being an impactful rookie keeper (ranked in top 100 overall in their first or second RK year)
4) Voting points. Each team owner is given a discretionary amount of points to assign to players at the end of the year. The number of points is based on order of finish with the Shooter Cup winner getting 50 points, 2nd place with 35 points, 3rd place with 25 points, 4th place with 20 points, and the remaining teams getting 10 points. The team owner assigns points to players whose performances resulted in the success of their team
In order to be eligible for the OBFBL Hall of Fame players must reach a defined threshold. Today we are excited to announce the Class of 2011 (Originally selected prior to the 2011 Entry Draft).
ALEX RODRIGUEZ
VLADIMIR GUERRERO
As we prepare for 2012 RK Draft coming up on Monday, February 27th, let’s look back on the History of the draft. We’ll take a look at some of the interesting stats and trends from the previous 8 RK drafts.
NOTE: Refer to the RK Draft page for a link to spreadsheet containing all the draft’s history and additional data.
In Summary:
There have been 94 RK players taken thus far in the history of the OBFBL, leading up to the 2012 RK draft
– of the 94, one-third of the picks (31) or 33% have been BUSTS
– of the 94, only 22.3% of the picks (21) have become STUDS (consistently ranked in top 80, and kept multiple times) or SUPERSTARS (consistently ranked in the top 30 and kept every year)
– of the 94, one-third of the picks (31) or 33% have had some moderate success in their MLB career up to this point (including 1 or 2 seasons ranked in the top 100, and/or may have been kept a couple times)
– of the 94, there are 11 players (11.7%) picked in 2010 or 2011 that it is still early to categorize them
The success rate for drafting RK players that are at least worthwhile regulars on your Fantasy team is pretty high. However the success rate for selecting RK players that turn out to be excellent players, during and/or after their RK contract is still relatively low.
OBFBL RK Draft by MLB Position:
Note: The position used is what the player was designated as when the RK draft took place (i.e. Ryan Braun is a 3B, Wil Myers is a C)
Results by Position:
Catchers: 9 selected – 3 busts (33%), 3 moderate success (33%), 1 stud / 0 superstars (11%), 2 TBD (22%). Biggest success: Joe Mauer; Biggest bust: J.D. Closser
1st Basemen: 7 selected – 2 busts (29%), 1 moderate success (14%), 1 stud / 3 superstars (57%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Joey Votto; Biggest bust: Mike Jacobs
2nd Basemen: 4 selected – 1 bust (25%), 2 moderate success (50%), 0 stud/superstar (0%), 1 TBD (25%). Biggest success: Rickie Weeks; Biggest bust: Chris Burke
3rd Basemen: 12 selected – 6 busts (50%), 2 moderate success (17%), 1 stud / 2 superstars (25%), 1 TBD (8%). Biggest success: Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria; Biggest bust: Dallas McPherson, Andy Marte
Shortstops: 8 selected – 4 busts (50%), 1 moderate success (13%), 1 superstar (13%), 2 TBD (25%). Biggest success: Troy Tulowitzki; Biggest bust: Brandon Wood
Outfielders: 26 selected – 8 busts (31%), 9 moderate success (35%), 4 studs / 2 superstars (23%), 3 TBD (12%). Biggest success: Grady Sizemore, Jacoby Ellsbury; Biggest bust: Jeremy Reed
Starting Pitchers: 25 selected – 7 busts (28%), 11 moderate success (44%), 3 studs / 2 superstars (20%), 2 TBD (8%). Biggest success: Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez; Biggest bust: Mike Pelfrey
Relief Pitchers: 3 selected – 0 busts (0%), 2 moderate success (67%), 1 stud / 0 superstars (33%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Craig Kimbrel; Biggest bust: N/A
Synopsis:
On average, the most successful position yielding the highest % of high end talent is 1st base (57%), followed by 3rd base and Shortstop (25%). Conversely, 3B and SS also tied for the highest percentage of busts with 50%. For those two positions it’s definitely been BOOM or BUST. The safest bets appear to be Outfielders and Starting pitchers, but they also have the largest sample sizes. Of course, the top prospects and their positions for each given RK year vary widely and it’s difficult to draw any conclusions about potential future RK success by looking at the past. It’s interesting to look through the stats though.
OBFBL RK Draft by Draft Order:
Results by Draft Order:
#1 overall picks: 8 selections – 2 busts (25%), 4 moderate success (50%), 1 stud (12.5%), 1 TBD (12.5%)
#2 overall picks: 8 selections – 1 bust (12.5%), 4 moderate success (50%), 1 stud / 1 superstar (25%), 1 TBD (12.5%)
#3 and #4 overall picks: 16 selections – 8 busts (50%), 6 moderate success (37.5%), 0 studs / 1 superstar (6%), 1 TBD (6%)
#5 and #6 overall picks: 16 selections – 3 busts (19%), 3 moderate success (19%), 4 studs / 4 superstars (50%), 2 TBD (12.5%)
#7 and #8 overall picks: 16 selections – 7 busts (44%), 5 moderate success (31%), 1 stud / 1 superstar (12.5%), 2 TBD (12.5%)
#9 and #10 overall picks: 16 selections – 5 busts (31%), 5 moderate success (31%), 2 studs / 2 superstars (25%), 2 TBD (12.5%)
#11 to #14 overall picks: 14 selections – 5 busts (36%), 4 moderate success (29%), 2 studs / 1 superstar (21%), 2 TBD (14%)
Synopsis:
Wow! You’d think that success rates would be higher for the top end picks. A few things standout:
– Of the 32 picks that were top 4 each year in RK draft, only 4 players turned into studs or superstars
– The bust rate of picks #3 or #4 is 50%! With only 1 superstar picked. By far the worse amongst all the categories
– The rate for studs and superstars picked out of the #5 and #6 pick slots is 50%, highest amongst all slots
– The results for the #9 and #10 category and #11 – #14 category are even better than #7 and #8
– In theory the higher picks should be better and everyone works to get them, or to trade up in the draft, but historically the results show that this doesn’t necessarily lead to success
OBFBL RK Draft by Franchise:
Results by OBFBL Franchise:
Ajax Super Sods: 11 selections – 4 busts (36%), 2 moderate success (18%), 3 studs / 1 superstar (36%), 1 TBD (9%). Biggest success: Troy Tulowitzki; Biggest bust: Mat Gamel
Aurora Asshats: 6 selections – 1 bust (17%), 3 moderate success (50%), 0 studs / superstars (0%), 2 TBD (33%). Biggest success: Jay Bruce; Biggest bust: Geovany Soto
Beaverton Gaping Gash: 1 selection – 1 bust (100%), 0 moderate success (0%), 0 studs / superstars (0%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: N/A; Biggest bust: Edwin Jackson
Brampton Blue Balls / Nomads: 13 selections – 5 busts (39%), 4 moderate success (31%), 2 studs / 1 superstar (23%), 1 TBD (8%). Biggest success: Prince Fielder; Biggest bust: Matt LaPorta, Jeremy Hermida
Brooklin Legacy: 8 selections – 3 busts (38%), 2 moderate success (25%), 1 stud / 2 superstars (38%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Joey Votto, Evan Longoria; Biggest bust: Brandon Wood, J.D. Closser
Durham Dick Dogs: 3 selections – 1 bust (33%), 1 moderate success (33%), 0 studs / 1 superstar (33%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Grady Sizemore; Biggest bust: Joba Chamberlain
Etobicoke Crackheads: 8 selections – 1 bust (12.5%), 3 moderate success (37.5%), 1 stud / 1 superstar (25%), 2 TBD (25%). Biggest success: Ryan Howard; Biggest bust: Jeremy Reed
Frankford Fury: 10 selections – 2 busts (20%), 6 moderate success (60%), 0 studs / 1 superstar (10%), 1 TBD (10%). Biggest success: Felix Hernandez; Biggest bust: Andy Laroche
London Tribe: 7 selections – 4 busts (57%), 2 moderate success (29%), 1 stud / 0 superstars (14%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Mike Stanton; Biggest bust: Chris Burke, Kazuo Matsui
Pickering Dynasty: 9 selections – 3 busts (33%), 5 moderate success (56%), 0 studs / 1 superstar (11%), 0 TBD (0%). Biggest success: Justin Verlander; Biggest bust: Dallas McPherson
Toronto Motorboats / TCD / NYMD: 11 selections – 5 busts (46%), 2 moderate success (18%), 1 stud / 1 superstar (18%), 2 TBD (18%). Biggest success: Jacoby Ellsbury; Biggest bust: Khalil Greene
Whitby Poo Dogs: 7 selections – 1 busts (14%), 1 moderate success (14%), 2 studs / 1 superstar (43%), 2 TBD (29%). Biggest success: Ryan Braun; Biggest bust: Andy Marte
Synopsis:
Some interesting results there, let’s take a look at some key findings:
– Overall most teams have a good mix of big wins and big busts in the RK draft
– Of the 10 players categorized as superstars, they are spread across 9 different teams. Only the Brooklin Legacy have 2, while the Asshats, Gash and Tribe have 0
– The Super Sods have the most Studs/Superstars selected with 4 combined, followed by the Blue Balls/Nomads, Legacy and Poo Dogs all with 3 combined
– The Blue Balls / Nomads and Motorboats / TCD / NYMD franchises tie with the most amount of busts with 5. Is it a coincidence that both franchises have gone through turnover in ownership?
– The Blue Balls / Nomads franchise has made the most RK selections with 13, followed by the Fury, Super Sods and Motorboats/TCD/NYMD with 11
– The Gaping Gash have only made 1 RK selection in the 8-year history, and it was during the first year when it was mandatory. The pick was Edwin Jackson – a bust. The Dick Dogs are next with only 3 selections
– The Poo Dogs have the highest percentage of success in the RK draft with 3 out of their 7 selections being Studs/Superstars, 1 with moderate success and 2 TBD. The Legacy are next for best %, then the Super Sods
Well that brings us to the completion for our stroll through the OBFBL RK draft history, I hope you enjoyed it.
Next up is a 2012 RK Draft preview and combined Top Prospect rankings. That article will be published in the coming week, as we are now only 19 days away from the 2012 RK Draft.
As we prepare for the 2012 OBFBL RK draft, let’s take a look back at the 8 previous years.
The goal for everyone entering the RK draft is to select the next superstar that’s going to be the cornerstone of your franchise for years to come.
We arm ourselves with as much Top Prospect information we can find and go into the RK draft with the belief that we’re going to land the next BIG thing.
In this article we’ll look back and analyze the past 8 RK drafts by Year. Part 2 of the article will take a close look at RK draft results by player position, by draft position and success ratios per OBFBL team.
Refer to the RK Draft page for a link to spreadsheet containing all the draft’s history and additional data.
OBFBL RK Draft by Year:
2004
Summary: The RK system – a concept initiated by departed owner Damon Hawkey – seemed like a great addition to the OBFBL, but most of us didn’t have a clue about what to do for it, or who to take. We searched for whatever information we could find on prospects and/or rookie of the year candidates. The end result was that no superstars were taken, but several good players, and a few definitive busts. This was the only time that every team in the league made an RK pick as trading of RK picks became increasing popular each year.
Draft Results:
Superstars (was a star during their 3-year RK contract and for several years after) [0 players]: N/A
Studs (consistent success during and/or post their RK contract) [3 players]: Joe Mauer (#1 overall – Whitby Poo Dogs), Justin Morneau (#5 – Ajax Super Sods), Jason Bay (#6 – Brooklin Legacy)
Moderate success (during and/or post their RK contract) [3 players]: B.J. Upton (#8 – Frankford Fury), Edwin Jackson (#7 – Beaverton Gaping Gash), Rickie Weeks (#9 – Durham Dick Dogs)
Busts (limited or no success in their MLB career) [4 players]: Kaz Matsui (#2 – London Tribe), Khalil Greene (#3 NYMD – now TMB), Bobby Crosby (#4 – Nomads – now BBB), Jeremy Reed (#12 – Etobicoke Crackheads)
2005
Summary: Prior to this RK draft, the Pickering Dynasty (then known as the Port Delhousie High Tops) joined the league and made trades to end up with 3 picks, including #1 & #2. The 2005 draft yielded 4 superstar RKs (the highest of any RK draft), but unfortunately for the Dynasty none of their 3 picks resulted in much success. The draft also had 4 of the biggest RK busts ever
Draft Results:
Superstars (was a star during their 3-year RK contract and for several years after) [4 players]: Ryan Howard (#3 – Crackheads), Felix Hernandez (#4 – Fury), Prince Fielder (#8 – Nomads / BBB), Grady Sizemore (#12 – Dick Dogs)
Studs (consistent success during and/or post their RK contract) [0 players]: N/A
Moderate success (during and/or post their RK contract) [4 players]: Delmon Young (#2 – Dynasty), Scott Kazmir (#6 – Super Sods), Tadahito Iguchi (#9 – Dynasty), Gavin Floyd (#11 – NYMD / TMB)
Busts (limited or no success in their MLB career) [4 players]: Dallas McPherson (#1 – Dynasty), JD Closser (#4 – Legacy), Chris Burke (#7 – Tribe), Andy Marte (#10 – Fury)
2006
Summary: The prize of the 2006 draft was top prospect Jeremy Hermida, who appeared to be a can’t-miss, but ended up being the 2nd consecutive #1 RK pick to be a massive bust. This draft did yield one superstar player (Verlander) and a couple studs, but the rest of the draft contained either a few players with some limited success during the RK contract and then fizzled out, or several all-out busts. Looking back, the RK class of 2006 is arguably the worst overall in the 8-year RK history
Draft Results:
Superstars (was a star during their 3-year RK contract and for several years after) [1 player]: Justin Verlander (#6 – Dynasty)
Studs (consistent success during and/or post their RK contract) [2 players]: Matt Cain (#5 – Poo Dogs), Ryan Zimmerman (#8 – NYMD/TMB)
Moderate success (during and/or post their RK contract) [3 players]: Francisco Liriano (#2 – Legacy), Bobby Jenks (#3 – Poo Dogs), Chris Ray (#12 – Fury)
Busts (limited or no success in their MLB career) [5 players]: Jeremy Hermida (#1 – Nomads / BBB), Brandon Wood (#4 – Legacy), Lastings Milledge (#7 – Legacy), Mike Jacobs (#9 – Super Sods), Kenji Johjima (#10 – Nomads/BBB)
2007
Summary: A quick glance at the results of the 2007 RK draft and there is an obvious trend that stands out. Remarkably, the first half of the draft is quite weak, while the second half was incredible, thus proving that often it doesn’t matter where in the draft your pick is as long as you have one. Overall, this draft rivals 2005 as the two strongest. The #1 pick – Alex Gordon – was a definite bust during his RK contract (for the 3rd straight year), but his value is rising after a strong 2011 season
Draft Results:
Superstars (was a star during their 3-year RK contract and for several years after) [3 players]: Ryan Braun (#6 – Poo Dogs), Troy Tulowitzki (#9 – Super Sods), Joey Votto (#11 – Legacy)
Studs (consistent success during and/or post their RK contract) [1 player]: Justin Upton (#11 – Super Sods)
Moderate success (during and/or post their RK contract) [4 players]: Alex Gordon (#1 – Fury), Daisuke Matsuzaka (#2 – NYMD/TMB), Chris Young (#5 – Fury), Billy Butler (#7 – Nomads/BBB)
Busts (limited or no success in their MLB career) [3 players]: Phil Hughes (#3 – NYMD/TMB), Homer Bailey (#4 – Tribe), Mike Pelfrey (#8 – Tribe)
2008
Summary: The Aurora Asshats join the league and did their first RK draft, making 3 picks including #1. The 2008 seems to be clearly split between hits and misses, with not much in between. A few of the picks who were headed for Bust status after only minimal success in their RK contracts have since broken out with strong seasons in 2011, their first post RK. A couple superstars have already emerged from the RK draft, with more potentially getting to that status in 2012. The draft also saw the first player to be selected who hadn’t played a single professional baseball game (Price)
Draft Results:
Superstars (was a star during their 3-year RK contract and for several years after) [2 players]: Evan Longoria (#2 – Legacy), Jacoby Ellsbury (#6 – NYMD / TMB)
Studs (consistent success during and/or post their RK contract) [2 players]: David Price (#9 – Crackheads), Clayton Kershaw (#10 – Super Sods)
Moderate success (during and/or post their RK contract) [5 players]: Jay Bruce (#1 – Asshats), Cameron Maybin (#3 – Nomads/BBB), Clay Buchholz (#4 – Asshats), Colby Rasmus (#7 – Fury), Ian Kennedy (#11 – Tribe)
Busts (limited or no success in their MLB career) [5 players]: Joba Chamberlain (#5 – Dick Dogs), Kosuke Fukudome (#8 – Nomads/BBB), Andy Laroche (#12 – Fury), Travis Snider (#13 – Fury), Geovany Soto (#14 – Asshats)
2009
Summary: The class of 2009 just completed their RK contracts, and so far only one stud has emerged (McCutchen) but several others are on the verge. The 2009 draft also set 2 records: most # of picks by one team – Dynasty with 5, including four in a row; and fewest number of teams that had RK picks: only 6 teams or half the league. NOTE: The “busts” are solely based on RK performance up to last year, and some players may be late bloomers
Draft Results:
Superstars (was a star during their 3-year RK contract and for several years after) [0 players]: N/A
Studs (consistent success during and/or post their RK contract) [1 players]: Andrew McCutchen (#11 – Nomads/BBB)
Moderate success (during and/or post their RK contract) [6 players]: Matt Wieters (#1 – Crackheads), Jason Heyward (#2 – Super Sods), Pablo Sandoval (#4 – Asshats), Neftali Feliz (#5 – Dynasty), Elvis Andrus (#8 – Dynasty), Madison Bumgarner (#9 – Dynasty)
Busts (limited or no success in their MLB career so far) [5 players]: Dexter Fowler (#3 – NYMD/TMB), Matt LaPorta (Nomads / BBB), Pedro Alvarez (#7 – Dynasty), Justin Smoak (#10 – Dynasty), Mat Gamel (#12 – Super Sods)
2010
Summary: With just 2-years completed for their RK contracts, the class of 2010 already looks to be a strong one. One Stud has already emerged out of the group (Stanton), and it looks like several more might reach that status this year or next. The 2010 RK draft was the final one for founder of the RK draft – Damon Hawkey / Nomads. NOTE: The “busts” are solely based on RK performance so far in the first two years on the RK contract, and will be subject to change based on performance in the 2012 season and upcoming. A new category “Undetermined yet” was added for those players who can’t be fairly categorized yet
Draft Results:
Superstars (was a star during their 3-year RK contract and for several years after) [0 players]: N/A
Studs (consistent success during and/or post their RK contract) [1 players]: Mike Stanton (#2 – Tribe)
Moderate success (during and/or post their RK contract) [6 players]: Stephen Strasburg (#1 – Crackheads), Desmond Jennings (#3 – Crackheads), Buster Posey (#9 – Legacy), Carlos Santana (#10 – Nomads / BBB)
Busts (limited or no success in their MLB career so far) [4 players]: Brian Matusz (#4 – Super Sods), Kyle Blanks (#6 – Super Sods), Wade Davis (#7 – TCD / TMB), Brett Wallace (#12 – TCD / TMB)
Undetermined yet (could go either way, depending on success in 2012) [3 players]: Alcides Escobar (#5 – Crackheads), Jesus Montero (#8 – Fury), Dustin Ackley (#11 – Crackheads)
2011
Summary: The most recent RK draft was a very interesting one with 2 supposed “can’t-miss” prospects on top (Harper / Trout), and a lot of interesting picks mixed in, including a dynamic closer (Kimbrel) and a player that is projected to be a stud but was potentially far away from making the majors (Machado). This was the first RK draft for the two new expansion teams – Brampton Blue Balls and Toronto Motorboats – who each acquired additional RK picks and had 5 picks between them. NOTE: The “Undetermined yet” category is used for those players who can’t be fairly categorized yet
Draft Results:
Superstars (was a star during their 3-year RK contract and for several years after) [0 players]: N/A
Studs (consistent success during and/or post their RK contract) [1 players]: Craig Kimbrel (#5 – Blue Balls)
Moderate success (during and/or post their RK contract) [3 players]: Jeremy Hellickson (#4 – Fury), Eric Hosmer (#7 – Blue Balls), Michael Pineda (#12 – Tribe)
Busts (limited or no success in their MLB career so far) [0 players]: N/A
Undetermined yet (could go either way, depending on success in 2012/2013) [8 players]: Bryce Harper (#1 – Asshats), Mike Trout (#2 – Super Sods), Domonic Brown (#3 – Poo Dogs), Mike Moustakas (#6 – Motorboats), Aroldis Chapman (#8 – Asshats), Julio Teheran (#9 – Blue Balls), Wil Myers (#10 – Motorboats), Manny Machado (#11 – Poo Dogs)
Next:
Stay tuned for Part 2 of the article coming in about a week, as we get closer to the 2012 RK draft
Please follow this link to join: http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/register_joinprivateleague_league_select?invitation=9152_253_4408_2_2
In true Carey Gunn Style he has kicked off the message board with a “Two Words…….Suck It!!”
Let the trash talk begin!!
One of my favourite Prospect experts Johnathan Mayo breaks down the 100 Top Prospects in Baseball. Here is how the 2012 Rookie Keeper Draft breaks down based on his rankings. WOW, the 2012 rookie crop is loaded with pitching!!
1. Frankford Fury – Matt Moore (TB) – LHP
2. Auora Asshats – Jurickson Profar (TEX) – SS
3. Etobicoke Crackheads – Trevor Bauer (PIT) – RHP
4. London Tribe – Dylan Bundy (ARZ) – RHP
5. Brampton Blue Balls – Gerrit Cole (PIT) – RHP
6. Whitby Poo Dogs – Manny Banuelos (NYY) – LHP
7. Toronto Motorboats – Devin Mesoraco (CIN) – C
8. Etobicoke Crackheads – Jacob Turner (DET) – RHP
9. Brampton Blue Balls – Danny Hultzen (SEA) – LHP
10. Brooklin Legacy – Bubba Starling (KC) – OF
11. Brampton Blue Balls – Taijuan Walker (SEA) – RHP
12. London Tribe – Archie Bradley (ARZ) – RHP
NOTE #1: Yu Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes are not included on this list.
NOTE #2: Prospects #2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 13 and 18 have already been selected as Rookie Keepers or Keepers.
Thoughts?? Comment below….
In part 2 of the OBFBL Keeper Rankings report, we’ll take a look at all 8 remaining teams in the rankings. I’ve also decided to add one more piece of information for each team…their average age (including both keepers and RK’s). I felt that the age was an interesting addition since a re-building team would typically aim to go for younger, high upside players, while teams aiming for an immediate run would have more established and consistent players. If those rules are broken, then a rebuild likely isn’t going well (old team, low rank) or we might have a dynasty (young team, high rank) on our hands. Since I didn’t have the ages on the first segment, here are the ages for the teams I missed:
The first four teams all have the potential to make some noise in 2012, but they are all lacking something to put them in the elite “top 4”. Unlike those in the “bottom 4” where those teams really need a lot to go right in 2012 to win the cup or to possibly even finish in the money, the “middle 4” all have a shot at the money at least and depending on their draft and first month or two, each of these teams could be buyers or sellers come May or June 2012.
Analysis: Legacy was an interesting story in 2011, with high hopes of taking home the Shooter Cup, they made some big deals before the season, but unfortunately, followed that up with a no-show on draft day and it was downhill from then on. Luckily, Legacy quickly realized that it wasn’t going to happen and was able to swap much of his early depth for a tier 1 keeper (Kemp). That, in addition to his original set, with a couple other minor tweaks, has them in decent shape, but they’ll need to either compete again soon or look for a bigger re-build as this team is aging quickly (2nd oldest) and has no younger RK’d stars coming up.
Analysis: Starlin Castro first overall!?? Asshats 2011 season started with a full day defending his selection. Today, Castro is ranked 40th overall and 4th at SS. He’s expected to improve more in 2012 and is still only 22…I think it’s fair to say that Asshats got the last word here. It’s too bad Bautista wasn’t 22, but he is top 5 with a few good years ahead. With these guys as well as Verlander/Lee to form his base, Asshats is looking for Bruce and Gio to take another jump forward and Utley to rebound and avoid injury. With Chapman and Harper on the verge of contributing, Asshats has managed to build a mid-ranked team that’s still young enough to be competitive for 3-4 more years while he adds to that strength. If Asshats were happy to finish in the money several years in a row, this team is built for it, but we all know the Shooter Cup is the only thing that gets respect in this league…does he have enough to get that far?
Analysis: LOOK at all those players Dick Dogs owned that are ranked in the 2012 top 200…that’s why he took home the Shooter Cup in 2011. Unfortunately, he couldn’t keep them all, and gets to start with a middle-of-the-pack ranking and the OBFBL’s senior team. There’s still time in his position to use the experience on his team to make another run, but if it’s not now, this team will have to go back for a major rebuild in the near future. Whenever that time comes, stars such as Tulowitzki will bring back a great haul to a team looking to make a run, but letting go of a tier 1 keeper isn’t an easy thing to do…and Howard might be the best example of what happens if you hold on to them too long. Will Dick Dogs make a run for a 2nd consecutive title, will he fall short and need to get walkers for his players or will he explore the market for one of his marketable players in exchange for some youth?
Analysis: The Tribe has a great mix of youth/experience as well as covering almost all positions on their roster. One noticeable gap is a third base keeper, which may make for a tough fill at a premiere position, but he’s given himself a lot of flexibility to draft the best player available regardless of position. With 2 RK pick’s for 2012, the Tribe are looking to maintain the youth on their team, but in the end, they might be better served dealing those picks for added depth and a higher run since the team is already very young for his position in the rankings.
Finally!! We’ve reached the top 4 teams in the keeper rankings. All of these teams have built a solid set of keepers and have set themselves up very nicely for a run at the money or the Shooter Cup championship in 2012. Three of the four has won a Shooter Cup previously, so while Super Sods may have the most motivation to win, the others won’t be easy to beat while they attempt to win their second title. These teams are only separated by 3 pts in the rankings so any one of them has a legitimate shot at this year’s SHOOTER CUP!
Analysis: Watch out for Super Sods!! An average age more than a year younger than the rest of the top 4, Super Sods has the makings of a long-term winner. Solid pitching, a roster filled with experienced and reliable, yet fairly young keepers and possibly the best young player in the game has Super Sods ready to challenge for a Shooter Cup. This is a team that barely fell short in 2011 and probably doesn’t intend to let that happen two years in a row.
Analysis: Crackheads lead the OBFBL standings for most of 2011, but his team failed down the stretch, letting not one, but two teams jump him. Crackheads made several moves late in the year to strengthen his keepers and it could be argued that the loss of depth cost him the Shooter Cup. Regardless, those moves have put him in a great position again to challenge for top spot. Crackheads has his infield set (minus catcher) and will be targeting some outfielders, but every player on this roster is near the top at their position. A couple RK picks should also provide a boost or would help to make an aging team a bit younger.
Analysis: Tied for 2nd is Dynasty, with TWO tier 1 keepers! Dynasty has clearly moved into a top spot to challenge for the Shooter Cup in 2012. With several players in the top 5 at their position, offense should not be a struggle for Dynasty unless their draft goes badly. The only gaps on this roster are an outfield with potential, but that has also had its struggles and a lack of pitching. Felix Hernandez is lacking nothing himself, but similar to his position in Seattle…if Hellickson (or Pineda) is all the help he can get, it’s going to be tough to get wins. Look for Dynasty to lock up some starting pitching in the draft, but he’s shown an ability to find some fringe players to fill that gap in the past. Dynasty will be a force to reckon with in 2012.
Analysis: Congratulations on the #1 Ranked OBFBL Keepers…Frankford Fury!! Missing a tier 1 keeper, but with 6 keepers in the top 5 tiers, it’s easy to see why Fury will be dangerous this season. While some health issues may come into play (Wright/Hanley), there’s not much I don’t like about this team. It would be nice to see Prince sign, but with talk of a one-year contract, he’d have a lot to prove and may surpass his already outstanding past success.
Summary: While the Fury has taken the top spot, by no means will they have an easy run. There are 7 teams within 6 keeper pts of each other, so this may be the tightest race in OBFBL history if the initial rankings are any indicator of how the season will play out. It’s fair to say that any team in this report could challenge for the OBFBL 2012 Shooter Cup Champion title. Let the fun begin!! Good luck to everyone! PLAY BALL.
By Ryan Main, based on the original format developed by Sean Chard
Congratulations to Steven Dickie on his 2011 Shooter Cup Championship win…his 2nd overall! It was a great season and congratulations should also go out to Super Sods and Crackheads for battling right to the end as well as to Dynasty for an amazing run into a money spot.
One of the toughest parts of winning an OBFBL championship is breaking your ties to some of the players you spent substantial time following, analyzing and eventually fighting to get onto your team…heck, you might have even bought a jersey to celebrate them, or still have one for a long-lost keeper you’d like to get back. It’s almost impossible to win this league (though not impossible as was proven here), without dealing some top tier keepers and RK picks.
Given that so much work and emotion is tied to these keepers, everyone wants to know how their GM skills rank and where their team stands heading into the season. Thanks to Sean Chard, who defined the original method, I’ve updated the info and here’s how the team rankings were determined for 2011’s keepers:
1. Player rankings were collected from 5 sources, all captured on Jan.5, 2012 and all recently updated for 2012. The players were each given a weighted score, based on the relevance of the rankings. Here are the sources and weights:
2. Take the composite rating from the 5 weighted scores and generate a ranking for 200 players based on these scores
3. Develop a keeper tier and assign points to each tier and player
4. Assign the appropriate value to rookie keeper players, as follows:
5. Calculate the total keeper points by team for their 8 keepers and rookie keepers
6. Rank the OBFBL teams 1-12 based on the total keeper points
7. Even though keepers have already been selected, I kept alternate keepers included for players in the top 200 ranking for 2012
In anticipation of the 2012 run for the Shooter Cup, here are your OBFBL 2011 Keeper Rankings…in reverse order:
Analysis: Poo Dogs took a huge hit already this offseason with Braun testing positive for PED’s and having his rank drop from a clear tier 1 keeper all the way to the 8th tier. This alone dropped their team rank down 3.5 spots overall heading into 2012. Overall, Poo Dogs has a good mix of hitters, starters, relievers and lots of youth, so it looks like Poo Dogs is on the right track to build into 2013, but we’ve seen them surprise us in the past with excellent drafts. Braun “should” provide a boost when he returns, but if they don’t resign Fielder, protection may be an issue. Is now the time to move Braun to make an unexpected title run or does he remain patient…time will tell.
Analysis: New owner (Kim) got his Motor Boats started pretty well in 2011 considering the hand he was dealt. Several immediate moves meant all his keepers were gone before the season started in exchange for better RK’s and draft picks. Motor Boats used that to stay higher than expected in the standings early, but the lack of a strong core of keepers slowly caught up. Motor Boats have added some key players (McCutchen/Zimmerman/McCann) that should be great to build around, but seems to have an affinity for catchers with 3 heading into 2012, letting another 2 walk for the draft. If Motor Boats can avoid their catcher fetish, continue to add higher tier keepers and with a bit of luck, they may be ready to compete in 2013, which would be an outstanding turnaround from their unfortunate 2010 team.
Analysis: Our other new owner (Ryan) got a better set of keepers out of the gate, but made some big moves prior to the season to get younger and prepare for a future run, at the expense of a low placing (2nd last) in the 2011 standings. The future looks bright with some of the best young talent in MLB (Lawrie, Strasburg, Jennings, Hosmer), but could be bit by sophomore slumps. The core needs some work beyond Pedroia. Pitching shouldn’t be much of an issue, but hitting may be a struggle unless Blue Balls can strike gold in the draft or through some other moves. This team has every position filled for 2012, so has a fair amount of flexibility to draft with. Should be interesting to see what this team looks like at the end of the year with a lot of players hoping to extend their early success or come back from off years.
Analysis: Gaping Gash had a very disappointing 2011 season on the heels of his 2010 Shooter Cup win. Finishing last likely wasn’t expected given his keepers, but injuries and under-performance was what led to the horrible season. There’s substantial upside to many of his 2011 keepers, but could Reyes be in for the same trouble Crawford had out of the gates in Boston? Miami’s new stadium is said to be an extreme pitchers park…will that benefit his run game or hurt him? – it’s not like Citi Field was helping him hit, so may be irrelevant. Hamilton has a contract to play for, but he’s never been accused of “slacking”, but more for already playing too hard…will he push it beyond his ability? Both Reyes and Hamilton may be in line for a monster year if they can stay healthy. Other questions surround Choo/Lind/Gordon…can their past inconsistency be turned around in 2012 – Gaping Gash had better hope so. With a couple RK picks, there’s some room to make some moves, but for the most part, this team will have to rely on its core and hope for a strong draft to contend in 2012. Looking to 2013 might be a better plan, but with the highest (tied) score of the bottom 4, Gaping Gash could decide to go either way.
Summary: Hope you enjoyed the analysis of the bottom 4…I’ll be back with the middle 4 soon. Please discuss and let me know if you agree/disagree with any of the info. Rankings are made to be questioned, and I’ve got a few I don’t agree with myself, but they are what they are and they were taken from very good sources.
I missed sending out between the Pickering Dynasty and Toronto Motorboats back in mid December. As with all deals, there will be a 24 hour approval period.
Motorboats Trade:
Yovani Gallardo
Brian McCann
2nd Round Entry Draft Pick (#17 overall)
2nd Round Entry Draft Pick (#18 overall)
Dynasty Trade:
Jeremy Hellickson (RK)
Mike Moustakas (RK
#7 Rookie Keeper Draft Pick
You can download an updated ChardSheet HERE
There was a time in our lives when the OBFBL meant everything to each of us. It was the first thing we thought each morning and the last thing we checked on before bed. As we have aged our lives have taken on more important aspects. Nothing more so then then next generation of OBFBLers. This picture of current Shooter Cup Champion Jr Cameron Dickie is a perfect example of what life is all about!
I hope you and your wonderful families have a wonderful Christmas and an amazing 2012!!
OBSESSED BALLERS FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE 