OBSESSED BALLERS FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE

Are all of the major move completed? Will there be any surprises? Are the Dick Dogs safe with a 10 Roto lead? Can the Super Sods or Crackheads find ways to improved there teams? Who will take control of the battle for 4th? It will be an interesting Trade Deadline to be sure!!!

The MLB Trade Deadline has passed and the OBFBL Trade Deadline of August 28th is fast approaching. For all of those looking to trade or acquire a 2011 Rookie Keeper draft pick, Here is the the ownership status of all 12 picks:

Kim’s RK pick – now with Pepsi (dealt to Larry on April 29th along with Wil Myers for JMontero/Storen ; dealt to Pepsi on July 21st along with Gordon/JSantana/others for Liriano/Latos/Nathan/Putz/Papelbon/Francisco/Jansen/Thornton)

Sean’s RK pick – now with Kim (dealt to Conley on April 22nd, for Berkman/Kendrick/Farnsworth/Fuentes; dealt to Kim on July 6th along with BUpton/Gallardo/Hellickson/Rauch for Lester/others)

Main’s RK pick – now with Larry (July 3rd deal along with Swisher/Hardy, for Wainwright/Tabata)

Bobby’s RK pick – now with Main (April 24th deal, for Kimbrel, with Lawrie also going to Main)

Carey’s RK pick – now with Main (April 27th deal, for Nunez/Lowrie/Crisp)

Baller’s RK pick – now with Bobby (April 4th deal, for Romero)

Larry’s RK pick – now with Cheese (draft day deal, for K-Rod/Bumgarner)

Dickie’s RK pick – now with Cheese (draft day deal, for Bourn/Valverde)

Cheese’s RK pick – Retained

Pepsi’s RK pick – Retained

Conley’s RK pick – Retained

Fisher’s RK pick – Retained

Please Let me know if you see any descrepancies.

2011 OBFBL All-Star Player Analysis

It’s that time of the year again where we take a close look at the MLB All-Stars and analyze the stats from the OBFBL from different angles.

We take a close look at:
– Who has the most All-Stars on their team right now, and broken down by AL/NL and also how many were keepers going into 2011 versus drafted
– Who had the most All-Stars on their team after the 2011 OBFBL draft, and broken down by AL/NL and also how many were keepers going into 2011 versus drafted
– A look at the All-Star “snubs” (selected subjectively by me)
– Who had the most keepers become all-stars
– Who had a great draft, or poor draft

Check out the full stats in this spreadsheet: 2011 All-Star Game Selections & Stats. Also, take a look at the OBFBL 2011 Draft sheet, with the All-Stars and Snubs highlighted.

ALL-STAR ROSTER STATISTICS — OBFBL DRAFT DAY ROSTERS

ANALYSIS:
– The Ajax Super Sods have the most All-Stars if we take a look at everyone’s team after the 2011 draft
– Incredibly, the Sods had 8 of their 9 keepers become All-Stars, while also drafting 7. The 7 drafted included 5 in a row from rounds 6 to 10. The Dick Dogs had the second most in both of those categories, so it is no surprise that those two teams are at the top of the OBFBL Standings

– The Brooklin Legacy and Pickering Dynasty seem to have a preference for the AL, and the Super Sods and Dick Dogs like the NL
– The Etobicoke Crackheads have the most “Snubs”, presumably keeping and drafting players that are very good, but just not All-Stars
– Only 9 players drafted in the first 5 rounds of the OBFBL 2011 draft became All-Stars (out of 60 players). Contrastly there were 10 players drafted in rounds 6-10 that were All-Stars, and 8 players drafted in rounds 11-15. Conclusion: having a lot of high end draft picks doesn’t always lead to success. Drafting smartly is arguably more important than drafting often. Of course, there is also a luck factor involved to avoid a few landmines

– The Brampton Blue Balls and Beaverton Gaping Gash are last with only 2 All-Stars each

– The Gaping Gash and Motorboats were the only 2 teams not to draft a player that became an All-Star

ALL-STAR ROSTER STATISTICS — CURRENT OBFBL ROSTERS

ANALYSIS:
– Not surprising, the 4 teams leading the current OBFBL standings have the most All-Stars on their current roster
– The Dick Dogs lead the way with 17 All-Star players, which amazingly is over half of their 30-man OBFBL roster. The Super Sods also have an impressive 15 All-Stars. The Dick Dogs seem to have a preference for the AL, while the Sods seem to like the NL
– Both teams lead in the number of All-Stars that were keepers (by some team) and also drafted (by some team)
– The Crackheads have the most snubs on their roster, followed by the Super Sods. If you were to combine the Super Sods’ All-Stars and Snubs, that’s 23 players from their 30-man roster

– These numbers can be used to see what might happen in the second half. The Dick Dogs are currently the OBFBL leaders and looking very strong with 108.5 rotos and a 7 roto lead over the Crackheads, and 8 over the Super Sods. Based on these numbers, it appears that the Sods have the players to battle with the Dick Dogs in the second half, but do the Crackheads?

– Additionally, this could be a partial data factor into franchise health, with the Gash, Blue Balls, Dynasty and Motorboats all having 3 or less All-Stars. Of course player injuries play a huge factor

ALL-STAR ROSTER STATISTICS — MLB ROSTERS

ANALYSIS:
– The Yankees have the most All-Stars with 8, followed by the Red Sox with 6 and then Tigers, Phillies, Braves, Rangers and Giants all with 5
– The Rockies, Rays and Nationals all have the most “Snubs” with 4
– The Twins, Cubs, Marlins, Astros, Athletics and Padres all have only 1 All-Star and only 1 Snub. Not surprisingly, these teams are all amongst the worst in baseball

As we pass by the mid-way mark of the 2011 season, it gives us a good chance to look at the OBFBL Record Book.

The single season offensive records are pretty safe, although the Dick Dogs have a shot at the Stolen Bases record.
With the “Year of the Pitcher” part 2, some of the long standing pitching records may be at risk for the first time, with several teams having very low ERA and WHIP ratios through this point in the season.

We’ll see how things stand at the end of the season and if any records fall, after having no records broken last year for the first time in league history.

Single Season Records:

Batting
Batting Average: .297 (Crackheads ‘07 / Gash ‘02), Current: .276 (Sods)    Conclusion: record safe
Homeruns: 348 (Dynasty ‘06), Current: 149 (Fury)     Conclusion: record safe
RBI: 1170 (Dynasty ‘06), Current: 554 (Sods)    Conclusion: record safe
Runs: 1254 (Dynasty ‘07), Current: 577 (Crackheads)    Conclusion: record safe
Stolen Bases: 255 (Fury ‘07), Current: 124 (Dick Dogs)    Conclusion: record possibly at risk

Pitching
Wins: 125 (Nomads – now Blue Balls ‘08), Current: 57 (Asshats)    Conclusion: record safe
Saves: 191 (Fury ‘09), Current: 113 (Crackheads)    Conclusion: record at risk
ERA: 3.07 (Gash ‘02), Current: 3.07 (Dick Dogs)    Conclusion: record at risk
WHIP: 1.10 (Gash ‘04), Current: 1.14 (Dick Dogs)    Conclusion: record possibly at risk
Strikeouts: 1447 (Gash ‘04), Current: 769 (Dick Dogs)    Conclusion: record possibly at risk

At this time, let’s also take a look at the Career Records and see which ones may change hands this year.

Career Records:

Batting
Batting Average: .283 – Dynasty should hold on to it
Homeruns: 2543 – Poo Dogs have a 150 lead over the Gash and then Tribe. They’ll hold the lead, although someone else might pull into 2nd or 3rd
RBI: 9333 – Poo Dogs have a 180 lead over Gash and then Crackheads are over 200 back. They’ll retain the lead, although the Crackheads and others should cut into the lead going into next year
Runs: 9636 – Fury have a 140 lead over Tribe and are over 200 ahead of the Poo Dogs. They should retain a big lead going into 2012
Stolen Bases: 1472 – Fury have a 190 lead over Crackheads and 240 ahead of the Tribe. They’ll retain the lead, although the Dick Dogs, Crackheads and others should cut into the lead going into next year

Pitching
Wins: 861 – Crackheads hold a 16 win lead over the Motorboats franchise and 24 over Legacy. As it stands now, the Crackheads should be able to stretch their lead going into next year
Saves: 1096 – Poo Dogs hold a 57 lead over the Fury and 84 over the Gash. Several teams may make big gains on them this year and we’ll see how close it is at the end
ERA: 3.66 – Fury hold the lead over the Gash (3.69) and then Poo Dogs (3.76). As it stands now, 8 of the 12 teams have an ERA below that mark and since that list does not include the Fury, there will be major movement in this career record this year
WHIP: 1.24 – Gash hold a lead over the Poo Dogs (1.26) and then the Fury (1.27). Half of the teams currently have a WHIP below that 1.24 mark and the Gash, Poo Dogs and Fury are all not among them. Like ERA, there will be a major shake-up here also
Strikeouts: 11,198 – Crackheads hold a slim lead over the Fury (11,064) and then Poo Dogs (10,916). The Crackheads should be able to stretch this lead, with the Dick Dogs also moving up the career standings

With the kick-off of the 2011 MLB season and OBFBL chase for the Shooter Cup, the OBFBL owners were once again asked to predict the future.

All of us have our own opinions on what is going to happen this year, either through extensive reading of columns from supposed “experts”, pulling together tons of data, or our “gut feel”.

With the annual preseason poll, the 12 owners make their MLB and OBFBL predictions. For the second straight year, all OBFBL owners sent in their poll, and everyone did it early this year.

Check out the attached OBFBL 2011 Poll spreadsheet for all of the individual predictions.  The “Storyline of the Year” picks are always good to read.  Here are some consensus picks from the poll:

Shooter Cup Champion: There were a lot of different picks for the OBFBL champion, but with 7 picks the Crackheads become the consensus choice. The pressure is now on for the Crackheads to deliver. Of note, the consensus picks have only been correct once before – with the 2009 Legacy team winning.

Other money teams: 2nd place – Pickering Dynasty; 3rd place – Durham Dick Dogs; 4th place – Ajax Super Sods. It should be a very tight battle in the OBFBL standings this year. The Brooklin Legacy were picked 5th, despite a stacked team and Mazgay openly stating that he’ll do whatever it takes to win and become the 2nd two-time champion (his 2nd in 3 years)

Battle at the bottom: Most predict that the two expansion teams – Motorboats and Blue Balls – along with the Tribe, will be the bottom 3 teams. We’ll see how this plays out throughout the year

Most pitching rotos: 8 out of 12 picked the Crackheads, with the Dick Dogs and Dynasty chosen twice each

Most batting rotos: 3 votes each for the Dick Dogs, Dynasty and Crackheads

Most keepers the same: Dick Dogs with the most votes (4) followed by the Fury (3)

Fewest keepers the same: Toronto Motorboats take half of the votes (not surprising after they went into the O draft with only 2 keepers). One interesting note that Bobby picked Carey to have the fewest keepers the same, yet Carey picked himself to have the most

Division winners & Wild-card: AL East – Red Sox (11 votes); AL Central – White Sox (5 votes); AL West – Rangers (8 votes); NL East – Phillies (9 votes); NL Central – Brewers (6 votes); NL West – Rockies (5 votes); AL Wild card – Yankees (6 votes) and 2 votes for the Jays (from Mazgay and Main); NL Wild card – Giants (4 votes) and Braves (3)

World Series: Consensus has the Red Sox over the Phillies. A few other picks – Larry has the Brewers over the Red Sox; Dickie has the Yankees over the Dodgers; Pepsi and Cheese have the Phillies over the Red Sox

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (5 votes), Adrian Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz (2 votes each). Mazgay picked Bautista, he’s a believer also

NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki (4 votes), Albert Pujols and Joey Votto (2 votes each). Pepsi picks Roy Halladay to pull the double win for MVP and Cy Young

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (5 votes), Lester (3 votes) and Verlander (2 votes)

NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (5 votes), Lincecum (4 votes) and Josh Johnson (2 votes)

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson (6 votes), all others with 1 vote – although Mazgay’s Arcencibia pick is looking good after opening day

NL Rookie of the Year: Vote splitting here – Freddie Freeman (3 votes), Brandon Belt (3 votes), Craig Kimbrel (3 votes) and Aroldis Chapman (2 votes)

AL Comeback Player: Joe Nathan (3 votes), Manny Ramirez (2 votes) and a bunch of others with 1

NL Comeback Player: Jimmy Rollins (2 votes) and a bunch of others with 1

AL Breakout Players: Brandon Morrow, Gio Gonzalez, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Gordon, Brian Matusz all with multiple votes

NL Breakout Players: Pedro Alvarez, Aroldis Chapman and Jhoulys Chacin all with multiple votes

AL Fantasy Busts: Adrian Beltre, Adrian Gonzalez, Vladimir Guerrero, Jonathan Papelbon and Jose Bautista all with multiple votes. NOTE: I predict Bautista to prove a lot of doubters wrong – .272, 105 R, 37 HR, 118 RBI, 9 SB, 115 BB

NL Fantasy Busts: Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Starlin Castro (will be an all-star, but not nearly yet) all with multiple votes

At the Shooter Cup ceremony in October we’ll look back on these predictions and see how we all did. Until then, enjoy being your own Fantasy Baseball “expert”.

As I cram today trying to finalize my draft prep, I am finding myself floating in between 2 completely different strategies.  One (the one I want to use) is all about competing.  Assembling the best offense in the league and then using my proven ability to piece together pitching staffs that are cheap, yet effective.  The other strategy of drafting the most tradeable assets is boring, but after the Hanley deal it is the smarter strategy for the future of the Fury Franchise.

After all, I am up against teams who have 6, 7, 8 more keepers then I do, plus a million extra picks.  There is no way I could compete this year, is there?  That’s the question I waned to answer in this post.   In order to negate the obvious advantage of hindsight I made this mission even tougher.  I wanted to see if I could assemble a team that would have won the 2010 Shooter Cup with zero keepers and the last pick in every round of the draft.  It was an up hill battle given the incredible 107 Rotos the Gaping Gash put up last season.  Armed with an all-nighter at the Quebec airport and some consultation with the OBFBL “Stat Man” Sean Chard I was going to give it my best shot!  Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce you to the:

2010 HIDESIGHT WARRIORS

C – John Buck (Round 16)
1B – Paul Konerko (Round 12)
2B – Rikie Weeks (Round 3)
3B – Adrian Beltre (Round 8 )
SS – Juan Uribe (Round 22)
UTL – Casey McGehee (Round 21)
UTL – Martin Prado (Round 10)
OF – Jose Bautista (Round 11)
OF – Chris Young (Round 6)
OF – Delmon Young (Round 14)
OF – Brett Gardner (Round 7)
OF – Juan Pierre (Round 5)

My Offensive Totals and (League Roto Rank)

R = 1035 (6 Rotos)     HR = 286 (12 Rotos)     RBI = 1038 (11 Rotos)
SB = 177 (11 Rotos)     AVE = .283 (12 Rotos)  TOTAL = 53 Rotos

SP – Jared Weaver (Round 1)
SP – Mat Latos (Round 9)
SP – Jamie Garcia (Round 19)
SP – Gio Gonzalez (Round 15)
SP – Trevor Cahill (Round 17)
SP – Carlos Marmol (Round 2)
RP – Rafeal Soriano (Round 4)
RP – John Axford (Round 18)
RP- Kevin Gregg (Round 23)
RP- Tyler Clippard (Round 24)

My Pitching Totals and (League Roto Rank)

W = 114 (11.5 Rotos)     SV = 146 (9 Rotos)     K = 1409 (12 Rotos)
ERA = 3.02 (12 Rotos)     WHIP= 1.19 (11 Rotos)  TOTAL = 55.5 Rotos

GRAND TOTAL 108.5 Rotos and the 2010 SHOOTER CUP!!!
Read through the full spreadsheet for the Hindsight Warriors HERE.

The moral of the story?  To illustrate  that no matter who your keepers are, or the amount of picks you have traded, the Entry Draft is still the biggest key to opening up the Shooter Cup vault this October.   FURY 2011?  It could happen bitches!!!

Since I don’t own an entry pick until #24, I thought I would make some unbiased educated guesses on how the first round could look on Saturday. I will do a Second Round mock on Thursday for you guys as well.

1-1 LEGACY – Adrian Beltre, 3B
Baller swears he is not choosing Phillips 1st overall in the draft.  That despite IMO there is no better player available.  Look for the Legacy to grab either a higher Average player like Beltre or reach for starting pitching.

1-2 ASSHATS – Brandon Phillips, 2B
Even with two second base keepers in Hill and Utley, Fisher is still in the building phase and will grab the best player available.  During the season he can easily deal his plethora of top 2-baggers to improve his keepers for 2012.

1-3 CRACKHEADS – Alexi Ramirez, SS
Chard has a very well rounded keeper set and 3 first round picks to play with.  I think he snags the best player at the toughest position with this first pick.  There is more depth available at OF and RP.

1-4 SUPER SODS – Carlos Marmol, RP
Carey is always a hard guy to predict, but I think the upside of Marmol’s Ks are too tough to pass on.  With a base of Bell and Marmol in the bullpen the Super Sods can focus on starters and offense for the next few rounds.

1-5 POO DOGS – Chris Young, OF
There is a history here as CYoung was one of Bobby’s Keeper cuts in 2010.  As a franchise on the rise Young is a great player to have around for years to come.

1-6 CRACKHEADS – Shane Victorino, OF
Pissed because the better upside was drafted ahead of him, The Crackheads go for the safer pick in Vicortino.  The Crackheads have added some much needed speed with this pick as well.

1-7 LEGACY – Roy Oswalt, SP
The Legacy’s number one need gets filled by the highest ranked SP in the draft.  Seems obvious to me.

1-8 CRACKHEADS – Martin Prado, 2B
Prado brings big time AVE and R to the table.  The Crackheads could take a Closer in this spot, but they have the 1st pick in the second round where there will still be plenty of options.  Chard locks down a solid player in Prado that he can use in UTL and fill in at 2B and 3B.

1-9 MOTORBOATS – TRIBE – Drew Stubbs, OF
Tagged the guy most likely to be the “Carlos Gonzalez” of 2011 – the hype surrounding Stubbs will be too much to keep him out of the first round….despite his .255 average.

1-10 DYNASTY – Casey McGhee, 3B
I would love to reach for a starter in this spot to add to the stud Dynasty rotation, I just don’t think there is one that warrants a pick here.  McGhee was extremely steady last year and has a good shot at becoming a .290/100/30/100 player that Larry will hype, then package to land Longoria.

1-11 GAPING GASH – Michael Young, 3B
The Gaping Gash go back to the MYoung well once again in 2011.  After all, It worked out great last season!!  I personally think Young will have a monster year trying to prove the Rangers organization wrong after the trade talk this offseason.

1-12 TRIBE – Corey Hart, OF
With the last pick in the 1st round the Tribe jump on the last real power OF in the draft.  Funny enough by season’s he may end up with the best one.

I would love to hear your comments!! Post below and tell me how badly I butchered this round!!!

Welcome to Draft Week 2011!!

Many coin OBFBL Draft day as “Christmas in March” and this Saturday will be no different!!   After 3 incredible years at Paul’s in the west end, he draft is moving East to the city of Pickering.  Host Larry Ellis has lots to live up to!

QUICK DETAILS:
Location: Ellis Estate, Pickering
Start Time: 11:oo AM

Stay tuned to OBFBL.com all week for some great content leading up to the draft.  Its going to be an amazing week!!

With the Entry Draft less then a month away, Sean found a great tool that does what many of us normally do ourselves for draft prep – compile the top X fantasy player rankings from various other sources and give a scoring or average. Check it out Here: http://www.athlonsports.com/columns/mlb-fantasy/2011-fantasy-baseball-big-board

According to this composite scoring, the top players available in the Entry Draft are:
Brandon Phillips – #53
Adrian Beltre – #62
Roy Oswalt – #76
Shane Victorino – #77
Chris Young – #82
Martin Prado – #83
Corey Hart – #88
Alexei Ramirez – #91
Carlos Marmol – #93
Michael Young – #96

And by position:
C – Soto – #119, Napoli – #142, Suzuki – #144, Montero – #146
1B – Huff – #113, Carlos Lee – #141
2B – Phillips – #53, Prado – #83, Zobrist – #98, Figgins – #99, Johnson – #100, Beckham – #135, Kendrick – #148
3B – Beltre – #62, Young – #96, Ramirez – #97, McGehee – #104
SS – Ramirez – #91, Drew – #116, Furcal – #121
OF – Victorino – #77, Young – #82, Hart – #88, Zobrist – #98, Hunter – #105, Wells – #106, Stubbs – #109, Bourn – #110, Abreu – #112, Pierre – #115, Guerrero – #123, Swisher – #125, Gardner – #139, Lee – #141
SP – Oswalt – #76, Billingsley – #101, Anderson – #111, Cahill – #114, Hughes – #126, Marcum – #131, THudson – #133, Danks – #137, Lilly – #138, Rodriguez – #140, DHudson – #143
RP – Marmol – #93, Papelbon – #103, Bailey – #122, Putz – #145, Broxton – #147, Axford – #149

I’m the comments section let’s hear your guess on who the top 5 draft picks will be.