2015 Rookie Keeper Draft

Posted: February 23, 2015 in League News

1. RIVERDALE SEX PANTERS – Yoan Moncada, SS (Red Sox)
Moncada, a 19-year-old switch-hitting infielder, is the most sought-after international prospect in recent history. Said to be a true five-tool talent, scouts have likened his upside to that of Robinson Cano and Chase Utley (in his prime). Prospect specialists at Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have all suggested that Moncada would rank in the top five to 15 prospects in Major League Baseball upon signing, which will make him Boston’s new No. 1 prospect. Unlike recent Cuban signings such as Jose Abreu and Rusney Castillo, however, Moncada will likely require at least one season in the minors.

2. AURORA ASSHATS –  Carlos Correa, SS (Houston Astros)
Hit
: 20/60, Raw Power: 60/65, Game Power: 20/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 65/65, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Correa was seen as a consensus top-three pick in the 2012 draft, but only a portion of the scouting community had him as the top prospect in the draft. The Astros saw him as the best talent and also saw an opportunity to capitalize on this perception (with Buxton seen as the consensus top prospect) to cut a below-slot deal with Correa, allowing them to sign two high schoolers — 3B Rio Ruiz (#43 on this list, since traded to Atlanta in the Evan Gattis deal) and RHP Lance McCullers (#126) — to over-slot deals later in the draft. Correa has really performed since signing and hasn’t added the weight many expected to come and force a move to third base. His 2014 season ended early with a broken fibula, but he’s been back to 100 percent for over a month and is expected to be ready to head to Double-A to start the year.

3. FRANKFORD FURY – Addison Russell, SS (Chicago Cubs)
Hit
: 40/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 40/55, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Russell was known to scouts early in his high school career, then he added a lot of weight in the summer before his draft year, causing most to project him as a third baseman. Russell didn’t like hearing this, so he dropped all the weight by his draft spring, losing some 65 or 70 raw power, but becoming a plus runner with a good chance to stick at shortstop. He went 11th overall to Oakland and surprised from day one with how advanced he was offensively, while continuing to improve defensively. He was dealt to the Cubs last year in the Jeff Samardzija deal and joins a glut of talented young hitters for the Cubs. The biggest remaining question for Russell is if he can still stick at shortstop due to a hitch in his release that limits how quickly he can unload the ball deep in the hole.

4. TORONTO MOTOR BOATS – Joc Pederson, OF (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 45/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Pederson signed for $600,000 in the 11th round of the 2010 draft from a Northern California high school; he wasn’t a consensus prospect and wasn’t seen as having much upside, but flashed average tools and good feel for the game. Something clicked in 2012 and the Dodgers sent him straight to High-A as a 20-year-old, where he became a top 100 type prospect. He raked again in Double-A in 2013, then again in 2014 in Triple-A, with only the Dodgers outfield surplus keeping him on the farm so long. Pederson has average to above average tools across the board, with only his raw power showing plus, though that’s with effort in batting practice. He can play a solid center field for now, but likely settles as a right fielder when he matures. His offensive projection will come down to what kind of hitter he wants to be–the 55 future hit/power tools is a little conservative and converts to .270s and 20 homers–but his controlled aggressive approach should lead to high OBPs either way.

5. LONDON TRIBE – Rusney Casttilo, OF (Boston Red Sox)
Castillo provided a brief glimpse of his potential last September when he made his big league debut less than a month after signing a seven-year, $72.5 million contract with the Red Sox. The 27-year-old impressed to the tune of a .333/.400/.528 batting line to go along with 2 homers and 3 stolen bases over his very limited 10-game sample with Boston.  The Red Sox enter the spring with a bit of a logjam in the outfield, but Castillo’s talent should keep him in the outfield mix (although Boston manager John Farrell told reporters that, if healthy, he expects Shane Victorino to start in right). If Castillo lives up to the hype, he has to be considered the front-runner for AL ROY honors..

6. FRANKFORD FURY – Corey Seager, SS (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Game Power: 40/55, Run: 45/40, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Seager is the younger brother of Mariners 3B Kyle Seager and, in the last few years, both have emerged as a couple of the best infielders in the world. Corey was identified as such earlier, as he went in the middle of the first round in 2012 out of a Charlotte-area high school, but even the Dodgers were surprised by how much and how quickly Seager excelled offensively. He hasn’t failed in any meaningful way yet, including an impressive late-season run in 2014 at Double-A at age 20. If you have to nitpick, the strikeouts are a little higher than some would like, but Seager is 6-foot-4 and that’s to be expected if a bigger guy is going to hit for some power. The Dodgers think Seager is fringy to average defensively at shortstop and will try to keep him there as long as possible, but he should slide over to third base at some point in the next year or two.

7. BROOKLIN LEGACY – Steven Souza Jr. OF (Tampa Rays)
Hit
: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: It would seem easy to like a guy with everyday tools that also really performs. Some scouts are all-in on Souza, but most are at least a little dubious that he’ll be able to keep it up in the majors, due to his approach, size and career path. After a slow start to his career as a 3rd round pick in 2007 out of high school (which included a drug suspension in 2010), Souza started crushing everything he faced in 2012 at age-23 in High-A. He followed that with huge years in 2013 at age-24 in Double-A and in 2014 at age-25 in Triple-A. All three of those seasons are two years old for the target age for a prospect to be at each level, so some scouts don’t even totally buy into the performance. Souza is a late bloomer, but he was also the key to the Wil Myers trade for Tampa Bay and he’ll likely be an Opening Day Starter that may post a couple WAR in 2015 and also may outperform Myers right after the deal. These things are all on the table now, but seemed completely absurd to consider a year or two ago, giving you a sense of how much Souza’s stock has risen in that time.

8. PICKERING DYNASTY – Yasmani Tomas, 3B (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Three years ago while playing in Cuba’s Serie National, Tomas flashed big power potential in slugging 16 homers in 226 plate appearances. But that was 2012 and after a lengthy layoff, Tomas will finally try and make good on all of the potential he showed years ago. The big question is whether Tomas’ power will translate to the American game the way that Jose Abreu’s did on the South Side of Chicago last summer. But Tomas is an entirely different player than Abreu and at a different person. There is no question that his build, swing and raw tools are extremely intriguing, but he is far from a finished product at this point. Tomas hasn’t played in a game since 2013 and will have a tremendous amount of developing to do.

9. FRANKFORD FURY – Lucas Giolito, SP (Washington Nationals)
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 60/70, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Giolito was nationally known by scouts all the way back to when he hit 95 mph at age 15 and he dominated over the summer and winter leading up to his draft year; he was in the running to go 1-1 as one of the top prep pitchers of all-time. His draft year, however, was cut short by a sprained UCL in his elbow that led to Tommy John surgery. The stuff was all the way back this year as he dominated Low-A in his age-19 season in his first full year coming off of surgery. The Nationals were understandably conservative with pitch and innings counts in 2014, wanting to keep Giolito at the same level in a low stress environment so he wouldn’t go too deep in innings/games or be tempted to reach back for the 100 mph heater he’s thrown many times before. Giolito will start in High-A this year and the reigns will be loosened, with an expectation that he’ll get promoted to Double-A at some point in 2015, with the majors only a phone call away.

10. PICKERING DYNASTY – Juilio Urias, SP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 60/65, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 65
Scouting Report: The Mexican-born Urias signed when he turned 16 in August 2012, as part of a package deal from his Mexican team, where he was the headline player, signing for $1.0 million (the Dodgers paid another $800,000 for the other players in the package). The Dodgers brass signed Urias after a famous trip to Mexico. They went to see his teammate C Julian Leon (a solid prospect in his own right), but the 15-year-old Urias sat 90-92 mph with a loose delivery, crisp curveball and good feel to pitch. Later on that same trip, the Dodgers also signed Yasiel Puig, making it one of the most notable scouting trips of all time. The reason Urias was still available what that he had a serious condition in his left eye (and still does–check out his official photo) after a tumor was removed, and some teams were worried about future blindness, though it doesn’t appear to be a problem now. Urias now sits in the low to mid-90’s and touches 97 mph with three plus pitches and advanced command, and he’s still just 18. He’ll start 2015 in Double-A and when he’s called up is simply a function of when the Dodgers want to start his arbitration clock, because we haven’t seen him fail yet, so we don’t even fully know his ceiling.

11. PICKERING DYNASTY – Carlos Rodon, SP (Chicago White Sox)
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 60/70, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Rodon was a notable prospect out of high school, but had a 3rd-4th round grade from most teams, as the fastball sat around 90, there was no projection and some teams had him off the board due to a back issue. His velocity spiked soon after he got to campus at NC State and he was sitting 92-95 mph and flashing a plus-plus slider en route to a dominating freshman season that began hype that Rodon would go #1 overall in 2014. He hit some bumps along the way and only showed flashes of his ultra premium stuff in his draft year, but it all came back after signing, due in part to his overuse in college and his reliance on his knockout slider. He’ll likely start in Triple-A, and should be up at some point this year. He has frontline starter potential, but he’s also shown flashes of a more ordinary pitcher in recent years.

12. BRAMPTON BLUE BALLS – Hector Olivera, 2B (Free Agent)
The 29-year-old Olivera, who turns 30 in April, is said to be seeking a five- or six-year pact along the lines of the contracts signed by Yasmany Tomas (six years, $68.5MM with a year-four opt-out) and Rusney Castillo (seven years, $72.5MM). The 6’2″ Olivera is in the best shape of his career and has “wowed” in open showcases and private workouts, leading many to believe he could hit 15 to 20 homers annually.

13. RIVERDALE SEX PANTHERS – Dalton Pompey, OF (Toronto Blue Jays)
Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 45/45, Game Power: 35/40, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 45/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Pompey was a little-known, young-for-his-class Canadian high schooler in the 2011 draft and stayed under the radar until a strong finish to his 2013 campaign in Low-A. He shot through the system in 2014, going form High-A to the big leagues after he kept impressing at each level when the Blue Jays though he may settle in. Pompey will start in Triple-A or the big leagues in 2015 and is the center fielder of the future, but the tools are more solid everyday than star material.

 

2015 Rookie Keeper MOCK DRAFT

Posted: February 3, 2015 in League News

By Kim Fereria

TRIBE – Yoan Moncada SS
ASSHATS – Yasmany Tomas 3B/OF
BLUE BALLS – Rusney Castillo OF
MOTOR BOATS – Joc Pederson OF
SEX PANTHERS – Carlos Correa SS
CRACKHEADS – Corey Seager SS
CRACKHEADS – Carlos Rondon SP
DYNASTY – Addison Russell SS
FURY – Noah Syndergaard SP
DYNASTY – Dalton Pompey OF
DYNASTY – Francisco Lindor SS
BLUE BALLS – Andrew Heaney SP
SEX PANTHERS – Josh Bell 1B/OF

OBFBL 2015 EARLY MOCK DRAFT

Posted: December 13, 2014 in League News

Its way too early to mock draft…..thats exactly why we do it!!  This mock is based solely on Main’s Composite rankings, not on the specific needs of each team.

ROUND 1 TEAM PICK
#1 Asshats Victor Martinez
#2 Tribe Adam Wainwright
#3 Dynasty Chris Davis
#4 Super Sods David Ortiz
#5 Motor Boats Matt Holliday
#6 Legacy Trevor Rosenthal
#7 Sex Panthers Sean Doolittle
#8 Dick Dogs Alex Rios
#9 Fury Matt Adams
#10 Poo Dogs Mark Trumbo
#11 Blue Balls James Shields
#12 Crackheads Yadier Molina
ROUND 2 TEAM PICK
#13 Crackheads Cliff Lee
#14 Blue Balls Salvador Perez
#15 Poo Dogs Gio Gonzalez
#16 Fury Mark Melancon
#17 Dick Dogs Hyun-Jin Ryu
#18 Sex Panthers Joey Votto
#19 Legacy Marcell Ozuna
#20 Motor Boats Pablo Sandoval
#21 Super Sods Sonny Gray
#22 Dynasty Elvis Andrus
#23 Tribe Koji Uehara
#24 Asshats Gerrit Cole
ROUND 3
#25 Asshats Cody Allen
#26 Tribe JD Martinez
#27 Dynasty Homer Bailey
#28 Super Sods Shin-Soo Choo
#29 Motor Boats Leonys Martin
#30 Legacy Justin Morneau
#31 Sex Panthers Brandon Moss
#32 Dick Dogs Brian McCann
#33 Fury Alex Wood
#34 Poo Dogs Howie Kendrick
#35 Blue Balls Glen Perkins
#36 Crackheads Jake McGee
ROUND 4
#37 Crackheads Chris Carter
#38 Blue Balls Alexei Ramirez
#39 Poo Dogs Daniel Murphy
#40 Fury Wilin Rosario
#41 Dick Dogs Brett Gardner
#42 Sex Panthers Steve Cishek
#43 Legacy Joe Mauer
#44 Motor Boats Doug Fister
#45 Super Sods Jonathan Papelbon
#46 Dynasty Neil Walker
#47 Tribe Lance Lynn
#48 Asshats Charlie Blackmon
ROUND 5
#49 Asshats Ben Zobrist
#50 Tribe Ben Revere
#51 Dynasty Melky Cabrera
#52 Super Sods Marcus Stroman
#53 Motor Boats Torii Hunter
#54 Legacy Fernando Rodney
#55 Sex Panthers Chris Archer
#56 Dick Dogs Evan Gattis
#57 Fury Joaquin Benoit
#58 Poo Dogs Brandon Belt
#59 Blue Balls Adam LaRoche
#60 Crackheads Steve Pearce

 

2015 Keepers

Posted: December 13, 2014 in League News

All of the 2015 Keepers have been named.  Let the OBFBL off-season begin!!!

Download the first official ChardSheet.

Keeper Rankings 2015

Posted: December 9, 2014 in League News

We did it!! After 3 years building, the Blue Balls captured their first shooter cup since taking over the franchise in 2011. Thanks to the Crackheads for putting up a season-long battle and keeping it exciting right to the end. We were sad to lose our Cuban duo of Puig and Cespedes and we had to say goodbye to Pedroia, our franchise cornerstone in prior years to take the final step forward. There are really only three keys to winning each season and if done right, anybody has a shot. Luck is of course a huge factor, but a strong draft (Gordon, Cueto, Gray, V-Mart) can cover up for some bad luck (losing Wieters, Tulo, Zimmerman, Beltran, Cuddyer). Most important to winning, is a good, strong set of keepers. Strong keepers allow you to have flexibility in your lineup as well as being able to trade one player to fill multiple gaps on your roster that have opened…either through a miss during your draft or due to injury.

Given that it’s still early, only a few sites have full rankings for 2015 updated so far. Each site was given a weight in the composite ranking based on their reputation (ESPN – Keepers = 20%, ESPN – Redraft = 20%, RotoChamp = 15%, Rotoworld = 15% and Fangraphs = 30%)

From the great base these sites provided, I crunched some numbers, resulting in your keeper rankings…hope you enjoy!! All ranks are based on the sites above, so feel free to disagree with the top keepers highlighted on each team. I know we usually find several teams going off the board for players they love that have higher potential than current value suggests. To that end…here’s your top keepers from 2014 and how they rank against each other…

2015_Poo
Right out of the gate and I was shocked to see the Poo Dogs ranked so low after a 3rd place finish last year. A rough year from Davis hurt his rank and Braun/Blackmon/Dozier and maybe even Harrison not getting the respect they deserve. Poo Dogs might not have the top 8 ranked keepers, but he had the most players in the top 200 of all the teams and is going to have to make some tough decisions in the coming week. Having cashed last year, it’s not a bad boat to be in, but would it have held him in the money longer if he’d taken this depth and upgraded the keeper set? This may be a low ranking, but the Poo Dogs draft well and if they select the right set of players, could still have a shot.

2015_Tribe
London Tribe spent 2014 rebuilding and has a decent top 6, while the backend has some risk to it. Tanaka doesn’t get any love after an injury plague first season and you have to worry about him possibly blowing his arm out in 2015. Segura had a horrific 2014 season…personally and on the field. There’s still obvious potential in him if he can return to form. Fielder will hopefully become the monster hitter we all thought he could be in Texas. Plenty of overall upside to the Tribe’s roster, but his 2015 looks unlikely to finish in the top half. If they have a good build in 2015, they should come out as a team to contend the following season.

2015_Sexpanthers
RSP has an interesting team. Some very good players, but the low rank shows there’s something missing. For one, still deep in their build, a team with the average age at 28 had better get younger while improving. Also, they’ve been moving valuable youth to upgrade the top keepers, resulting in no RK depth to add value. RSP took a major hit when Taveras, possibly the best young bat in MLB, was taken away. A supplementary RK pick provided some minor value back, but not enough to make up for that loss. While there’s a lot to like here, I still think this team will need two years before they’re competitive.

2015_Motorboats
It’ll be interesting to see how Heyward reacts to the change of scenery. Having grown up in the Atlanta area and playing in front of family and friends half the season, the pressure to perform might have been a bit much for him and he could finally realize his monster potential. It’s interesting that Soler is ranked as high as he is…clearly he showed what he can do, but we have to wonder if the pitching will catch up with him next year and wonder if he’ll adapt. He’s hit at every level and should be fun to watch. TMB has lowest average age of all the teams this year…a full year younger than the next team and 2-3 younger than most. TMB needs a good draft, but it positioned for a money spot if he hits on the right players.

2015_Sods
Trade Mike Trout!! That guy is HORRIBLE…but we’ll take him off your hands. Super Sods has the best keeper in the league and a very solid top 5-6, but beyond that, some work to be done. No RK properties means he’s got very little ability to upgrade before the draft, but he’s proven he can draft very well in the past. With minimally 3 keepers to upgrade and no RK picks, that draft depth will be critical to how long it takes for the Super Sods to be competitive again. One year may be enough for a strong owner like this, but two year would make them a dominant contender…how much patience will they have?

2015_Fury
Another very solid team in the middle of the ranks, Fury will hope that his middle infielders can stay on the field and get back to the dominance they’ve provided in the past. Another lack of RK’s gave Fury’s team a hit on the rankings, but the base set of keepers is very nice. Fury will need to decide soon if they should continue pushing for money spots or instead rebuild as their team age is pushing towards 30 now. As with other teams in this tight range of keeper points, Fury can contend with a solid draft, but has little leverage to increase his chances with one RK pick.

2015_Asshats
The Asshats broke from their norm last year and made a few trades! Getting younger and still with tons of upside to their keepers, the Asshats will look to finish in the money this year and are well positioned to do so. If the Asshats get 1-2 of their young players to maximize their potential and then also build some RK depth, they could easily be a top ranked team for next year, but they’ll have to decide at some point whether they want to build a dynasty team or one that will sit on the outer money spots for years.

2015_DickDogs
I guess pitching won’t be an issue for the Dick Dogs. It’s notable that Votto is sitting outside the top 8…hard to believe he’s not being underrated right now. Similarly, Jay Bruce had an off year and is now in his age 27 season…is the risk here too high to bump one of the players ranked higher or is he worth the risk? Dick Dogs decisions on those two players may drive his season, but if they bounce back, this combination of pitching and hitting/speed could be hard to compete against. If the Dick Dogs had any RK picks or players, they have enough leverage to set themselves up for a title run, but right now I’d expect them to fight for a high money spot.

2015_Legacy
Wow. Legacy jumped 8 spots in the rankings since last year…incredible. Starting with probably the best RK selection since Mike Trout, Abreu led his team with the AL ROY award and it wasn’t close. On the NL side, Billy Hamilton was expected to run away with it, but lost out after tailing off in the 2nd half. While still posting great SB totals and better than expected AVG, Hamilton will hopefully take another step forward in 2015, but in his last RK year, he’ll need to either up his totals or get more consistent to take over a keeper spot. Legacy has, in my opinion, some of the best young keepers in MLB, however he also has some that I feel are very overrated (Longoria, Machado) as they seem to be fan favourites, but have declined since their initial success. Legacy is close, but should take a patient approach, finish in the money, but build to improve the last 2-3 keepers for an extended stay at the top.

2015_BlueBalls
Our current Shooter Cup champion needed to move some of his young, high potential keepers to hold off the Crackheads, but still managed to get back solid players who are closer to decline. This may be the final year before a full rebuild has to start, but could also be used to finish lower, while slowly fixing the age issues. We’ll have to see how the draft goes to get an idea of which course they will take.

2015_Dynasty
Consistently finishing in a money position ended this year, Dynasty is set to get to the top again and battle for the Shooter Cup. Dynasty has a dangerous combination of strong keepers and RK picks/properties that can be used as leverage to upgrade draft positions or his base keeper set. It’ll be interesting to see where he goes as his RK’s could either be moved for value or could contribute themselves if he holds on to them. He also worked the waiver wire well in 2014, ending up with NL ROY deGrom and swapping in someone like that would lower his average team age.

2015_Crack
Well, well, well…do the Crackheads ever finish outside the top 3 in the rankings? Easily the best base keepers, the Crackheads will fight for a Shooter Cup for one more season before they may have to look at some changes. A fantastic combination of power, speed, consistency and high end pitching, we’ll all hope they have horrible draft so that we can keep pace. On top of the base keepers, they also have a couple middle of the pack RK picks to use as leverage to either correct mistakes or cover up injuries along the way or in advance of his draft. The Crackheads are the favourite to take home the 2015 Shooter Cup.

Good luck to all in 2015!

2015_overall

Now that the 2014 OBFBL and MLB seasons are well behind us, and all the awards have been handed out, let’s see how we all did with our preseason predictions.

The full poll results can be accessed at: https://obfbl.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/obfbl-2014-poll.xlsx OR by clicking “League History”, then “Preseason Poll” in the above menu).

OBFBL PREDICTIONS:

  • Four people correctly predicted the Blue Balls to win the Shooter Cup, and the Crackheads to finish in second (Conley, Gunn, Mazgay, Chard)
  • For overall standings predictions, Conley came closest with four teams picked in the right slots, and being close on four others
  • Half the league correctly predicted the Sex Panthers to finish last, in a rebuilding year for them
  • For OBFBL storyline, we’ll give partial credit to the Hamilton breakout prediction by Mazgay, and no credit to Kim’s prediction that the “Brad Miller pick doesn’t look that bad”. Hopefully Fisher’s prediction doesn’t come true
  • Four people correctly guessed that the Crackheads would end up with the most pitching rotos, including Conley, Ferreira, Gunn and Main
  • Three people corrected guessed that the Blue Balls would end up with the most batting rotos, including Conley, Gunn and Main

MLB PREDICTIONS:

  • AL East:  Only one person (Chard) predicted the Orioles to win the division. He also had the highest number of playoff teams predicted correctly at 8 out of 10
  • AL Central – Most had the Tigers, Smith did pick the Royals to win it and they had a nice run as a Wildcard winner
  • AL West – Three people (Smith, Fisher, Chard) picked the Angels to win
  • NL East/Central/West – Nearly everyone correctly picked the Nationals, Cardinals and Dodgers. These three teams were favored to win their divisions and they all did it, which is rare
  • AL Wildcards – A few had the Royals making it
  • NL Wildcards – A few had Pittsburgh and a couple had the Giants. Conley nailed both NL wildcard teams
  • AL / NL Winners and World Series – While several people picked the Giants and Royals to make the playoffs, no one had either team making it all the way to the World Series

NOTE: In the “expert” picks on the right side of the poll spreadsheet, you’ll see that Mike Wilner did pick the Giants to win the World Series

  • Prediction for Blue Jays – predictions were all over the map, the Jays’ rollercoaster season was fun at times but ended up in disappointment, again. The 84-78 prediction by Riley for the Jays record was really close (83-79 actual)
  • Billy Hamilton SB total: His final total was 56 which ended up being below the predicted average of 57.9, but fairly close to it. As for who was closest, Smith gets that with his pick of 63 SBs
  • AL MVP: Trout was the consensus pick (8 out of 11 chose him), and he came through winning it after being runner-up for 2 straight years
  • NL MVP: None of the predicted players were in the running for the MVP award, which went to SP Clayton Kershaw
  • AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber (picked by no one) surged to the award, edging out King Felix (who was picked by Main, Dickie, and Chard)
  • NL Cy Young: Kershaw wins the award unanimously. In our poll he was picked by Smith and Gunn to win it
  • Al Rookie of the Year: Jose Abreu dominated the AL this year and won the award unanimously. He was picked by Conley, Mazgay, Dickie and Fisher
  • NL Rookie of the Year: No one picked Jacob deGrom, who had a very good but not a standout season, and he beat out Billy Hamilton (picked by Smith, Riley, Mazgay, Main and Chard) for the award. Kolten Wong (picked by Conley, Ferreira, Gunn and Dickie) was third.
  • Comeback Players of the Year: No one thought of Chris Young or Casey McGehee who were the winners. Aside from Cueto (picked by Main) who had an outstanding year (but perhaps wasn’t considered for this award), none of the other players predicted were that great and many of them were still busts.

FANTASY PREDICTIONS

AL Breakout Players:

GOOD Picks: Jose Abreu, Yordano Ventura, Kole Calhoun, Sonny Gray, Alex Cobb [all picked by multiple people], Cody Allen (picked by Chard)

BAD Picks: Danny Salazar, Xander Bogaerts, Mike Moustakas, Dan Straily, Ivan Nova, Brad Miller (some picked multiple times as breakouts, see spreadsheet for individual picks)

NL Breakout Players:

GOOD Picks: Christian Yelich (picked by Smith), Marcel Ozuna (picked by Mazgay), Charlie Blackmon (picked by Dickie), Anthony Rendon (nicely picked by Fisher), Billy Hamilton / Alex Wood / Zack Wheeler / Nolan Arenado / Kolten Wong (each picked by multiple people, see spreadsheet for individual picks)

BAD Picks: Tony Cingrani, Chris Owings, Michael Wacha, Archie Bradley (see spreadsheet for individual picks)

AL Fantasy Busts:

GOOD Picks: Wil Myers and Brad Miller (Conley), Dustin Pedroia  and CC Sabathia (Main), Jered Weaver (Mazgay), Alex Rios (Fisher), Prince Fielder / Xander Bogaerts / Josh Hamilton / Brett Lawrie (picked by multiple people, see spreadsheet for individual picks)

BAD Picks: Sonny Gray, Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre, David Ortiz, Felix Hernandez, Koji Uehara, Doug Fister (see spreadsheet for individual picks)

NL Fantasy Busts:

GOOD Picks: Sergio Romo (Conley), Martin Prado (Mazgay), A.J. Burnett, B.J. Upton and David Wright (Main), Chase Headley (Cheese), Bryce Harper and Everth Cabrera (Dickie), Jean Segura (multiple people)

BAD Picks: Doug Fister, Carlos Gomez, Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, Anthony Rizzo, Kenley Jansen, Justin Upton, Huston Street (see spreadsheet for individual picks)

That wraps it up for the poll and results for 2014, I hope you enjoyed the summary report.

We’ll do this all again just prior to the 2015 season!

Thanks,

Sean

2015 Draft Orders

Posted: November 10, 2014 in League News

ENTRY DRAFT
1. Aurora Asshats
2. London Tribe
3. Pickering Dynasty
4. Ajax Super Sods
5. Toronto Motor Boats
6. Brooklin Legacy
7. Riverdale Sex Panthers
8. Durham Dick Dogs
9. Frankford Fury
10. Whitby Poo Dogs
11. Brampton Blue Balls
12. Etobicoke Crackheads

ROOKIE KEEPER
1. London Tribe
2. Aurora Asshats
3. Brampton Blue Balls (Dynasty)
4. Toronto Motor Boats
5. Riverdale Sex Panthers (Legacy)
6. Etobicoke Crackheads (Super Sods)
7. Etobicoke Crackheads (Sex Panthers)
8. Pickering Dynasty (Dick Dogs)
9. Frankford Fury
10. Pickering Dynasty (Poo Dogs)
11. Pickering Dynasty (Crackheads)
12. Brampton Blue Balls

OBFBL Season Records

Posted: August 7, 2014 in League News

by Sean Chard

With less than 2 months to go in the OBFBL season, it’s a good time to look at the Record Book and see which Season records are at risk to fall this year.

OBFBL Season Records

A quick glance at the batting records and all of them are at no risk whatsoever to fall, and they are likely to remain intact forever from the 2006/2007 seasons when they were set.

In fact, if we tracked the totals for each stat for team with the most each year, this season we have break the record for the lowest winning total for several of the offensive categories.

With the dreadful offense numbers of course, this also means that some of the pitching records are at risk.

  • Wins: Record is 125 (set in 2008 by Blue Balls franchise) and is safe
  • Saves: Record is 213 (set in 2012 by Tribe), currently the Crackheads have 159 and would be on pace to break the record
  • Strikeouts: Record is 1508 (set in 2013 by Dynasty), currently the Crackheads are at 1107 (in 1054.2 IP) and are on pace to break the record
  • ERA: Record is 3.04 (set in 2013 by Dynasty), currently the Tribe are at 2.92 and have a good shot to break the record
  • WHIP: Record is 1.10 (set in 2004 by Sex Panthers franchise and the oldest standing Season record), currently the Blue Balls are at 1.14 and Tribe at 1.15. Both have a chance to get under 1.10 but it may be difficult

 

ADDITIONALLY:  The record for highest ever scoring season (Poo Dogs in 2008 at 110 rotos) is at risk, with the Blue Balls currently at 109 rotos and with points to gain

 

The Career Records may be changing hands after this year also. These will be updated on the site and a separate post in the offseason.

OBFBL 2014 Poll

Posted: April 23, 2014 in League News
Tags:

The annual OBFBL poll was completed by (nearly) all of the participants. The poll responses were received over a 2-week period, starting a few days before the season and then continuing nearly 2 weeks into it. As such, the responses for some may have some information already about the season’s results, but not too much.

Let’s dive into some of the observations within the poll.  Link to POLL here.

OBFBL Standings:

  • 7 of 11 poll respondents picked the Etobicoke Crackheads to win the Shooter Cup this year and they are the consensus favourite
  • Closely behind are the Brampton Blue Balls, with 4 1st place votes. It would be the 1st title for the Blue Balls
  • Following those two teams, the predictions are all over the board, with the consensus picks having the Dick Dogs and Dynasty also finishing in the money
  • Towards the bottom of the consensus results, the Poo Dogs, Tribe, Legacy and Sex Panthers are all believed to finish down in the standings

OBFBL Predictions:

  • A wide range of responses for “Storyline of the Year” from the Crackheads or Blue Balls capturing the title, to rapings and other violent acts, to breakout seasons by Brad Miller and Billy Hamilton, and even a wild prediction of 2 owners not returning for next year.  We’ll see which of these storylines comes true
  • Most Pitching Rotos: Crackheads with 4 votes, Dick Dogs with 3
  • Most Batting Rotos: Crackheads with 4 votes, Blue Balls with 3
  • Most Keepers the Same:  6 votes for the Asshats
  • Fewest Keepers the Same: 3 votes each for the Legacy and Sex Panthers

MLB Predictions:

  • AL East:  Rays (5 picks), Red Sox (3), Yankees (2), Orioles (1), Blue Jays (0)
  • AL Central: Tigers (9 picks), Royals (1), Indians (1)
  • AL West: Athletics (5 picks), Angels (3), Mariners (3)
  • NL East: Nationals (9 picks), Braves (2)
  • NL Central: Cardinals (8 picks), Pirates (3)
  • NL West: Dodgers (9 picks), Giants (1), Diamondbacks (1)
  • AL Wild Cards: Red Sox (4 picks), Royals (4), Blue Jays (3)
  • NL Wild Cards: Pirates (5 picks), Cardinals (3), Braves (3)
  • AL Winner: Tigers (4 picks), Rays (4 picks), Orioles (1), Angels (1), Red Sox (1)
  • NL Winner: Dodgers (5 picks), Nationals (3), Cardinals (3)
  • World Series: Dodgers (5 picks), Nationals (3), Cardinals (2), Rays (1)

 

  • Predictions for Blue Jays: All over the Map, from wildcard winner to a very bad team that gets blown up and GM/manager fired
  • Billy Hamilton SB total:  Average of 57.9 SBs,  High total = 80,   Low total = 28

 

  • AL MVP: Mike Trout (8 votes), Evan Longoria/Wil Myers/Prince Fielder (1 each)
  • NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen (3 votes), Bryce Harper (2 votes), Hanley Ramirez/Matt Carpenter/Carlos Gomez/Paul Goldschmidt/Freddie Freeman/Carlos Gonzalez (1 each)
  • AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish (4 votes), Felix Hernandez (3 votes), James Shields/Max Scherzer/Alex Cobb/David Price (1 each)
  • NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg (5 votes), Adam Wainwright (2 votes), Clayton Kershaw (2 votes), Jose Fernandez/Madison Bumgarner (1 each)
  • AL Rookie of the Year: Jose Abreu (4 votes), Nick Castellanos (2 votes), Yordano Ventura (2 votes), Masahiro Tanaka/Xander Bogaerts/Chris Colabello (1 each)
  • NL Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton (5 votes), Kolten Wong (4 votes), Archie Bradley (2 votes)
  • AL Comeback Player: Grady Sizemore (5 votes), Albert Pujols (2 votes), Josh Hamilton/Corey Hart/Derek Jeter/Michael Pineda (1 each)
  • NL Comeback Player: Matt Kemp (3 votes), Ryan Braun (2 votes), Tim Hudson/Jason Heyward/Johnny Cueto/Curtis Granderson/Troy Tulowitzki (1 each)

Fantasy Predictions:

  • AL Breakout Players: 2 or more votes for – Alex Cobb, Sonny Gray, Danny Salazar, Michael Pineda, Kole Calhoun, Yordano Ventura, Taijuan Walker, Brad Miller, Adam Eaton
  • NL Breakout Players: 2 or more votes for – Andrew Cashner, Billy Hamilton, Nolan Arenado, Archie Bradley, Chris Owings, Alex Wood
  • AL Fantasy Busts: 2 or more votes for – Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Josh Hamilton, Prince Fielder
  • NL Fantasy Busts: 2 or more votes for – Yasiel Puig, Jean Segura, Doug Fister

 

Thanks to everyone (except 1) for filling out the survey. It’s always fun to look back on this midseason and at the end of the year and see how we did with our predictions.

Sean

By Sean Chard

Each year we take a look back at and analyze what would happen if you had no keepers and the last pick of each round. Could you assemble a team strong enough to win the Shooter Cup?

Each year we’ve taken a look back to build a team that would have won the Shooter Cup, here are the past results:

2010 Hindsight Warriors article
2011 Hindsight Warriors article
2012 Hindsight Warriors article

Let’s take a look back at the 2013 Fantasy Baseball season and do it again, and see if we can build a team to defeat the Frankford Fury’s 2013 Shooter Cup winning team.

There were a lot of BIG surprises in 2013, including some impressive rookies – Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig, Jean Segura; major breakouts from emerging stars like Carlos Gomez, Matt Harvey (before TJ), Pedro Alvarez; and some old guys still bringing it – Alfonso Soriano, Michael Cuddyer, Koji Uehara.

Here is how the rest of team looks like.

2013 HINDSIGHT WARRIORS

C – Jonathan Lucroy (round 9) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (round 18) [using a % of each of their stats for 162 GP]
1B – Brandon Moss (round 13)
2B – Matt Carpenter (round 10)
3B – Pedro Alvarez (round 4)
SS – Jean Segura (round 14)
UTIL – Michael Cuddyer (round 7)
UTIL – Josh Donaldson (round 20)
OF – Carlos Gomez (round 1)
OF – Hunter Pence (round 3)
OF – Yasiel Puig (round 6)
OF – Alfonso Soriano (round 11)
OF – Coco Crisp (round 8)

NOTES:
– Killer comeback seasons from Crisp, Pence, Saltalamacchia
– Big breakouts from Gomez, Puig, Alvarez, Donaldson, Carpenter
– Soriano joins the Hindsight Warriors for the 2nd straight season

Offensive Totals (and Roto rank):
R = 1003 (8 Rotos) HR = 280 (12 Rotos) RBI = 967 (9 Rotos)
SB = 188 (12 Rotos) Batting Average = .284 (11 Rotos) TOTAL = 52 ROTOS

P – Matt Harvey (round 2)
P – Anibal Sanchez (round 5)
P – Jose Fernandez (round 21)
P – Hisashi Iwakuma (round 22)
P – Justin Masterson (round 23)
P – Ubaldo Jimenez (round 24)
P – Koji Uehara (round 25)
P – Edward Mujica (round 26)
P – Jim Henderson (round 27)
P – Joaquin Benoit (round 28)
P – Brad Ziegler (round 29)

NOTES:
– Big breakouts from Fernandez, Harvey, Iwakuma
– An out of nowhere comeback season by Masterson
– Lots of RP gold, as there seems to be every year

Pitching Totals (and Roto rank):
IP = 1500 W = 99 (11 Rotos) SV = 123 (7 Rotos) K = 1493 (12 Rotos)
ERA = 2.57 (12 Rotos) WHIP = 1.06 (12 Rotos) TOTAL = 54 ROTOS

GRAND TOTAL 106 Rotos  and the 2013 SHOOTER CUP!!!
Read through the full spreadsheet for the 2013 Hindsight Warriors HERE.

In summary, any team can win the Shooter Cup this year! Even those that have rebuilt and are down to 4 or 5 keepers. Keepers are great for building the foundation of your team for the year, but your draft and post-draft success (and some luck of course) are equally important. This is something for us to keep in mind as we all prepare for the 2014 Draft, now just 1 day away!