OBFBL First 2014 MOCK DRAFT

Posted: December 16, 2013 in League News
Tags: , , ,

The keepers are announced, the offseason trading has begun already with 3 deals made so far.

Let’s take a look at the top players available in the upcoming 2014 OBFBL draft.  Using the composite player rankings from Main’s worksheet (that he used to create the Keeper Rankings feature), the following MOCK draft was created. Note: the players selected for the teams are solely based on the ranking and the mock does not take into account specific team needs or their expected plans for 2014.  The “Overall Rank” column shown is the composite ranking from Ryan’s worksheet.

Look below the table for some analysis of the MOCK draft, the first of several we’ll have before the OBFBL draft in March.

ROUND #1 TEAM PLAYER POSITION(s) OVERALL RANK
PICK 1.1 Crackheads Elvis Andrus SS #63
PICK 1.2 Blue Balls Carlos Santana C/1B #67
PICK 1.3 Motorboats Mike Minor SP #72
PICK 1.4 Tribe Homer Bailey SP #77
PICK 1.5 Asshats Brandon Phillips 2B #82
PICK 1.6 Blue Balls (via Legacy) James Shields SP #83
PICK 1.7 Poo Dogs Ben Zobrist 2B/SS/OF #87
PICK 1.8 Dick Dogs Hisashi Iwakuma SP #88
PICK 1.9 Super Sods Jonathan Lucroy C #94
PICK 1.10 Fury Alex Cobb SP #95
PICK 1.11 Dynasty Hyun-Jin Ryu SP #97
PICK 1.12 Dynasty (via Sex Panthers) Jose Altuve 2B #98
         
ROUND #2 TEAM PLAYER POSITION OVERALL RANK
PICK 2.1 Dynasty (via Sex Panthers) Carlos Beltran OF #100
PICK 2.2 Dynasty Carlos Granderson OF #101
PICK 2.3 Fury Patrick Corbin SP #102
PICK 2.4 Super Sods Glen Perkins RP #104
PICK 2.5 Dick Dogs A.J. Burnett SP #105
PICK 2.6 Poo Dogs Jered Weaver SP #106
PICK 2.7 Legacy Clay Buchholz SP #107
PICK 2.8 Asshats Kris Medlen SP #108
PICK 2.9 Tribe Martin Prado 2B/3B/OF #109
PICK 2.10 Motorboats Joe Nathan RP #111
PICK 2.11 Blue Balls Wilin Rosario C #112
PICK 2.12 Crackheads Jayson Werth OF #113
         
ROUND #3 TEAM PLAYER POSITION OVERALL RANK
PICK 3.1 Crackheads Chase Utley 2B #116
PICK 3.2 Blue Balls Koji Uehara RP #117
PICK 3.3 Motorboats Austin Jackson OF #118
PICK 3.4 Tribe Rafael Soriano RP #119
PICK 3.5 Asshats Salvador Perez C #123
PICK 3.6 Legacy Aaron Hill 2B #124
PICK 3.7 Poo Dogs Trevor Rosenthal RP #125
PICK 3.8 Dick Dogs Jason Grilli RP #126
PICK 3.9 Super Sods Shane Victorino OF #127
PICK 3.10 Fury CC Sabathia SP #130
PICK 3.11 Dynasty Francisco Liriano SP #131
PICK 3.12 Sex Panthers Jeff Samardzija SP #132
         
ROUND #4 TEAM PLAYER POSITION OVERALL RANK
PICK 4.1 Dynasty (via Sex Panthers) Lance Lynn SP #133
PICK 4.2 Dynasty Jonathan Papelbon RP #134
PICK 4.3 Fury Doug Fister SP #135
PICK 4.4 Super Sods Andrelton Simmons SS #137
PICK 4.5 Dick Dogs Dexter Fowler OF #139
PICK 4.6 Poo Dogs Sergio Romo RP #140
PICK 4.7 Blue Balls (via Legacy) Matt Garza SP #141
PICK 4.8 Asshats Hiroki Kuroda SP #142
PICK 4.9 Tribe Asdrubal Cabrera SS #143
PICK 4.10 Motorboats Brandon Belt 1B #145
PICK 4.11 Blue Balls Johnny Cueto SP #146
PICK 4.12 Crackheads Kendrys Morales 1B #147
         
ROUND #5 TEAM PLAYER POSITION OVERALL RANK
PICK 5.1 Crackheads Andrew Cashner SP #148
PICK 5.2 Blue Balls Jake Peavy SP #152
PICK 5.3 Motorboats Michael Cuddyer 1B/OF #153
PICK 5.4 Tribe Jon Lester SP #155
PICK 5.5 Asshats Derek Holland SP #156
PICK 5.6 Legacy Victor Martinez 1B #157
PICK 5.7 Poo Dogs Matt Wieters C #158
PICK 5.8 Dick Dogs Jed Lowrie 2B/SS #159
PICK 5.9 Super Sods Tony Cingrani SP #160
PICK 5.10 Fury Mark Teixeira 1B #161
PICK 5.11 Dynasty Coco Crisp OF #163
PICK 5.12 Sex Panthers Grant Balfour RP #164

ANALYSIS

  • 24 of the 60 players (40%) in the MOCK are Starting Pitchers, which is typical of our OBFBL drafts with pitchers less kept despite their ranking, due to higher risk
  • 9 closers taken in the MOCK.  While the mock does show closers starting to be taken in the 2nd round, which matches our OBFBL draft, we know that there is a higher frequency of them taken in the first 5 rounds, than the 9 in the mock
  • The 5 catchers taken in the MOCK are all good contributors, and they’ll go within the first 5 rounds of the actual draft likely to those that need that position. The order they go in will depend on team needs
  • Ben Zobrist and Martin Prado fill a nice utility knife need as usual with 3 positions eligible each, while Jed Lowrie and Michael Cuddyer have 2 positions
  • The OF position isn’t well represented in the MOCK, while the 3B options are very limited

2014 KEEPER ANNOUNCEMENTS

Posted: December 13, 2013 in League News

We are all set to start another OBFBL season!! Download the 1st ChardSheet of 2014 HERE.  The Trade Freeze has been lifted and you are welcome to send your trade announcements to the Commissioner.  Trades will be announced daily until the frenzy dies down.

2013 Keeper Rankings

Posted: December 12, 2013 in League News

By Ryan Main

Conley wins his 2nd Shooter Cup! It was a long time between titles, but you made it exciting by choosing not to trade some final keepers for depth. It’s a very tough choice that far down the road as you want the cup (and cash), but you also want to be able to compete at a high level the next season. Larry and Carey also put up very good seasons and almost pulled off the win. I always enjoy looking at the teams at season’s end to see if there were keeper level players that could have benefited another team’s keeper set. To that end…here’s your top keepers from 2013 and how they rank against each other…(not that Paul cares).

How were these rankings created? You really don’t care about that, so fine…I won’t waste your time with all the detail. If you need the background, refer to the 2011 story (https://obfbl.com/2012/01/11/keeper-rankings-part-1/). I will give you one piece of information, and that is the origin of the rankings used…given that it’s still early, only a few decent sites have rankings for 2014 updated so far. Each site was given a weight in the composite ranking based on their reputation (ESPN = 35%, CBS Mock Draft = 20%, RotoChamp = 15%, Fantasy Assembly Keeper Rankings = 10%, Fantasy Assembly Standard Rankings = 10%, Rotoworld mid-season 2014 projections = 10%)

• ESPN (http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/2014_ranks/tristan-h-cockcroft-fantasy-baseball-top-250-rankings-2014)

• CBS Mock Draft (http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/story/24286694/draft-prep-offseason-headtohead-mock)

• RotoChamp (http://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/PlayerRankings.aspx)

• Fantasy Assembly Keeper Rankings (http://fantasyassembly.com/2013/11/10/top-100-players-for-dynasty-leagues/)

• Fantasy Assembly Standard Rankings (http://fantasyassembly.com/2013/12/09/top-204-for-2014/)

• Rotoworld mid-season 2014 projections (http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/mlb/43717/2/2014-top-300-overall)

From here, I entered the nerdery and crunched some numbers, resulting in your keeper rankings…hope you enjoy (yes, we know Paul…you don’t enjoy…so quit reading already)!

K_BL_2013B-Ham made the top 200!! There’s a lot riding on his last year of RK eligibility…should be interesting to see if he pans out or fizzles down the Rajai Davis path. Looks like Baller still hasn’t noticed that he’s supposed to improve his keeper rank from year to year, but on the bright side, he did lower the average age of his team, and if we remove Dickey, he owns one of the youngest sets of keepers in the league. While the changes haven’t shown up in the ranking score, Baller was very active in 2013 and looks to be on a path in the right direction…I expect to see his rank go up quickly in the years to come.

K_RDSP_2013After dealing all his keepers last season, Chris went from having an old folk’s home full of keepers to the 2nd youngest set in the league.  This year, Chris has multiple high-end RK’s, as well as his own pick in the RK draft to solidify his future.  In addition, Chris was able to get lucky foresee the breakout of several young keepers in Jose Fernandez and Dominic Brown.  Couple that with picking up Reyes via trade, and Chris is on his way to a good set of studs…should be interesting to see what moves he makes this year.

K_LT_2013Cheese owns the 3rd youngest set of keepers in the league. He took a hit after trading most of his assets early for Cole Hamels, but still managed to make a few more trades last year and caught lightening with Michael Wacha, who will be one of the most talked about and watched young pitchers in the league in 2014 (time to sell high?). There’s some tough breaks on the RK side as Sano seems to be a week away from opting to have Tommy John surgery and Singleton would rather camp out on first with some buddies and a blunt than put his MLB career in the spotlight. Cheese has a team that I think could easily outperform its current ranking, but will need Segura, Donaldson and others to repeat or even improve upon their breakout seasons.

K_ASS_2013Ouch…Carey pushed with all he had to win the 2013 shooter cup, but not only came up short for the 2nd season in a row, but also moved out a ton of talent in the effort. With a pocket full of cash, I’m sure Carey has no regrets, but we all know he wants the cup more than ever now. There’s a solid core here and the age isn’t a concern, but Carey will need one heck of a good draft to take a money spot in 2014 as the trade value beyond Trout and Jones is not so great and we clearly know he has no intention of moving either of these guys.

K_WPD_2013Chris Davis….damn. Who here wishes they’d hit that lottery? Wasn’t it just a year ago that this guy struck out 4 times in a game and then took the mound to pick-up two more K’s? Let’s hope Davis doesn’t regress back to his old ways in 2014. Bobby has set himself up nicely after dealing with the Braun PED disaster. He has an excellent combination of studs and high upside, young keepers….even his RK’s should be reliable in 2014. Looking through Bobby’s roster I’m a bit surprised he’s ranked 8th, but that may be more an indicator of the level of competition in 2014 than anything.

K_TMB_2013Kim finished in 7th place in 2013 and begins with the 7th ranked, but youngest overall set of keepers. It seems his catcher fetish has carried into 2014 with two in his top 8 and a 3rd just outside. There’s some serious upside to this roster in Hosmer, Heyward and Rizzo. If these three can take another step forward in 2014, Kim’s keepers will look much better, but for now that’s a lot to expect. We should see another year of good progress, but Kim will need to make some moves if he wants to be ready to compete in 2015.

K_FF_2013A shooter cup cost Conley as he had to deal some keepers to make his run, but still managed to stay in the top half of the league rankings. We can see that he finished with a ton of depth as he has more players ranked in the top 200 than anybody. No RK’s and a weak backend (is Andrus really a keeper?) will make it very difficult to repeat unless he has a killer draft. There’s also some concern about whether Hanley can play a full schedule or if Beltre can keep his hammy’s from pulling in the Texas heat. It’ll be interesting to see how Fielder adjusts to the same, but I’d love to have these guys hitting back-to-back in my lineup. I don’t see a repeat happening…and I actually doubt he’ll hit the money this year, but it should be close. A focus on re-build would have Conley back in the battle easily the next season.

K_DDD_2013Some tough decisions here…Kemp has to be frustrating to watch with so much potential, but very little time on the field and less success since he BUSTED out and predicted he’d go 50/50…do you hang on to this guy or sell low? Felix should benefit by the Cano signing and bolstered offense, and Ellsbury to NYY was great news for the Dick Dogs. A solid draft should put Dick Dogs in a money spot, but if he can combine that with some of his typical trades, Dick Dogs has a shot at taking home another cup in 2014.

K_AA_2013Do your own write-up…why are you even reading this Paul? Not a trade will be made or a keeper upgraded, and again will fall out of the money.

K_PD_2013Leisure Suit Larry almost took down another shooter cup in 2013, but did hit another money finish. Why even collect the entry fee for this guy? Owner of the 2013 AL MVP, who should be back to full health in 2014 and playing his regular position, MCab may either carry this team or be traded to upgrade the weaker backend keepers on this team. Larry seems to be targeting RK’s more than in past years as he’s seen some real potential in Xander Bogaerts, so it’ll be interesting to see if that is simply for trade value or if he’s changed his strategy. Larry will undoubtedly finish in the money and will, as always, be in the running for the cup.

K-EC_2013Well nobody can say that Chard didn’t maximize his trade options. Leaving only one other choice for a keeper in the top 200 players, it looks like Chards roster is pretty set. But…where’s Matt Harvey? One of the top pitchers last year, Harvey will be very missed as the Crackheads attempt to win again in 2014 (due to his injury, no site ranked him as top 200 for 2014). I’d say we can expect to see a move or two from the Crackheads as they tend to be very active by the keeper announcements, but will they move Harvey or will they instead move the #1 RK pick that is expected to belong to Byron Buxton? After a quick re-evaluation in 2013, Chard again improved his keeper set, and, while his keepers may not be overall as strong as last year, he still has a substantial amount of flexibility to contend with.

K_BBB_2013We’ve come a long way baby!! After a steady rebuild, the Blue Balls have finally reached the top of the keeper rankings. If they can only avoid the curse associated with this position, the Blue Balls may finally get the relief they’re looking for…would that be the first time a name change was in order immediately after winning a title? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The field is stacked this year and there are a lot of questions with this roster. Will Pujols bounce back after working through his injuries or will he continue to decline with age? Will 2013 phenom Puig suffer a sophomore slump? Can Tulowitzki stay healthy? Ryan’s team is bolstered by very strong RK’s in their final year, but will that be enough to carry them to their first Shooter Cup?

Summary:

K-All_2013

2014 DRAFT ORDERS

Posted: October 25, 2013 in League News

ENTRY DRAFT
1. Etobicoke Crackheads
2. Brampton Blue Balls
3. Toronto Motor Boats
4. London Tribe
5. Aurora Asshats
6. Brooklin Legacy
7. Whitby Poo Dogs
8. Durham Dick Dogs
9. Ajax Super Sods
10. Frankford Fury
11. Pickering Dynasty
12. Riverdale Sex Panthers

ROOKIE KEEPER
1. Etobicoke Crackheads
2. Brampton Blue Balls
3. London Tribe
4. Pickering Dynasty (Motor Boats)
5. Aurora Asshats
6. Pickering Dynasty (Legacy)
7. Whitby Poo Dogs
8. Riverdale Sex Panthers
9. Durham Dick Dogs
10. Brampton Blue Balls (Super Sods)
11. Pickering Dynasty
12. London Tribe (Fury)

OBFBL 2013 FINAL MOCK DRAFT

Posted: March 22, 2013 in League News
Less than 24 hours away from the 2013 OBFBL draft!
As we all do our final preparations for the draft on Saturday morning, a couple of OBFBLers (Ryan Main, Sean Chard) decided to put together one Final Mock Draft. Unlike previous mock drafts that just took the combined overall ranks for the top players and assigned them to OBFBL teams in order, the draftees spent (a little) time looking at positional and category needs when drafting players for teams.
ROUND 1 TEAM PICK
#1 Tribe Shin Soo Choo (OF)
#2 Fury Jason Motte (RP)
#3 Motorboats Jose Altuve (2B)
#4 Blue Balls Matt Wieters (C)
#5 Dynasty Dan Haren (SP)
#6 Legacy Ryan Howard (1B)
#7 Dick Dogs Rafael Soriano (RP)
#8 Poo Dogs Asdrubal Cabrera (SS)
#9 Tribe Fernando Rodney (RP)
#10 Super Sods Mariano Rivera (RP)
#11 Crackheads Alex Rios (OF)
#12 Asshats Yadier Molina (C)
ROUND 2 TEAM PICK
#13 Asshats Joe Nathan (RP)
#14 Dynasty Martin Prado (2B/3B/SS/OF)
#15 Super Sods Mike Napoli (C/1B)
#16 Crackheads Sergio Romo (RP)
#17 Poo Dogs J.J. Putz (RP)
#18 Blue Balls Huston Street (RP)
#19 Fury Paul Konerko (1B)
#20 Crackheads Johnny Cueto (SP)
#21 Blue Balls Carlos Beltran (OF)
#22 Motorboats Joel Hanrahan (RP)
#23 Fury Shane Victorino (OF)
#24 Tribe Jim Johnson (RP)
ROUND 3
#25 Crackheads Ike Davis (1B)
#26 Fury John Axford (RP)
#27 Motorboats Brandon Morrow (SP)
#28 Dick Dogs Hunter Pence (OF)
#29 Dynasty Greg Holland (RP)
#30 Crackheads C.J. Wilson (SP)
#31 Motorboats Carlos Gomez (OF)
#32 Poo Dogs Rickie Weeks (2B)
#33 Tribe Alejandro De Aza (OF)
#34 Super Sods Chris Perez (RP)
#35 Dynasty Wilin Rosario (C)
#36 Asshats Doug Fister (SP)
ROUND 4
#37 Asshats Jake Peavy (SP)
#38 Dynasty Glen Perkins (RP)
#39 Super Sods Nick Markakis (OF)
#40 Tribe Jon Lester (SP)
#41 Poo Dogs Ian Kennedy (SP)
#42 Dick Dogs Norichika Aoki (OF)
#43 Legacy Chase Utley (2B)
#44 Crackheads Matt Harvey (SP)
#45 Blue Balls Nick Swisher (1B/OF)
#46 Motorboats Brett Anderson (SP)
#47 Fury Hiroki Kuroda (SP)
#48 Legacy Derek Jeter (SS)
ROUND 5
#49 Sex Panthers Brandon League (RP)
#50 Fury Miguel Montero (C)
#51 Dick Dogs Rafael Betancourt (RP)
#52 Blue Balls Steve Cishek (RP)
#53 Dynasty Josh Beckett (SP)
#54 Crackheads Angel Pagan (OF)
#55 Dick Dogs Anibal Sanchez (SP)
#56 Poo Dogs Grant Balfour (RP)
#57 Tribe Adam LaRoche (1B)
#58 Super Sods Howie Kendrick (2B)
#59 Dynasty Dan Uggla (2B)
#60 Asshats Adam Dunn (1B/OF)
Click here: OBFBL 2013 Mock Draft to see the full draft results, in our regular draft sheet format (with keepers shown).
Some interesting questions will be answered in the draft, including:
– when does the closer run (or runs) begin?
– who will be the young keeper upside players that people will reach for?
– who will be the older guys that will slide a bit?
– will 2013 turn out to be similar to 2012 with the first 5 rounds yielding poor results? if so, then maybe the Sex Panthers aren’t in that bad of shape despite only taking their first pick at #49 and second pick at #77.

The OBFBL Hall of Fame opened it’s doors last year, with 6 inaugural inductees.

The intention is to highlight those baseball players that have had significant fantasy baseball success in the OBFBL. Several players in the 11 year history of the OBFBL have been crucial to teams winning the Shooter Cup, and others have had prolonged high performance results.

Players accumulate points each year in 4 ways:
1) Being a keeper
2) Being ranked in the top 20 players (based on final results that year)
3) Being a rookie keeper. With bonus points for being an impact rookie keeper (ranked in top 100 overall in their first or second RK year)
4) Voting points. Each team owner is given a discretionary amount of points to assign to players at the end of the year. The number of points is based on order of finish with the Shooter Cup winner getting 50 points, 2nd place with 35 points, 3rd place with 25 points, 4th place with 20 points, and the remaining teams getting 10 points. The team owner assigns points to players whose performances resulted in the success of their team

In order to be eligible for the OBFBL Hall of Fame players must reach a defined threshold. Today we are excited to announce the Class of 2012.

OBFBL HALL OF FAME – Class of 2012:

miguel-cabreraMIGUEL CABRERA
Class of 2012
147 HOF points
  • Kept in the OBFBL for the last 9 years
  • Has been absolutely dominant over those 9 years as one of the top players in baseball – overall player ratings: #41 in 2004, #13, #17, #22, #31, #12, #5, #7, #2
  • Second highest amount of Voting points of anyone in the Hall – 72 VP, only trails Pujols
  • Was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2004 OBFBL draft by the Gash, in between Jose Vidro and Pudge Rodriguez, and was traded to the Brooklin Legacy that same year
  • Cabrera was kept by the Legacy for 5 years until he was traded to the Pickering Dynasty in 2009, in a deal that pulled back a hefty return and helped propel the Legacy to their first Shooter Cup championship that season
  • In 2012, Cabrera was a huge contributor to the Dynasty’s 2nd championship, and Cabrera won his first. Miggy was a monster in 2012, capturing the AL triple-crown and winning the MVP award
  • At age 29, Cabrera is easily the youngest of the OBFBL HOF’ers, and he is right in the middle of his prime with many elite fantasy seasons still to come. He may wind up as the best fantasy player in the history of the OBFBL
  • Miguel Cabrera will enter the OBFBL Hall of Fame wearing a Pickering Dynasty jersey

crawford

CARL CRAWFORD
Class of 2012
120 HOF points
  • Kept in the OBFBL for the last 9 years
  • Crawford had a massive peak from 2004 through 2010 where he was one of the best players in baseball. He ranked in the top 6 players in baseball 3 times during that period, and in the top 15 players a total of 6 times
  • Was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2004 OBFBL draft by the London Tribe, which could very well be their best draft pick ever (exempting the no-brainer A-Rod pick #1 overall in 2002)
  • Crawford was kept by the Tribe for 3 years, and then was traded frequently to teams as his SBs and overall production were in high demand
  • He won his first and only Shooter Cup in 2010 after being the #3 overall player in baseball that year, helping lead the Gash to their second championship
    Injuries have hampered Crawford the last couple seasons, however he is only 31 and can hopefully recover in 2013 and get back closer to where he once was
  • Carl Crawford will enter the OBFBL Hall of Fame wearing a London Tribe jersey

By Sean Chard

It’s OBFBL draft week!  A time that all OBFBLers look forward to every year. A weekend filled with great events, a chance to get together with friends and have a great time, an intense fantasy baseball draft that we all spend weeks preparing for, and the unofficial kick off for us to the upcoming baseball season.

It would be interesting to know how much time we collectively put into preparing for the single most important part of the Fantasy Baseball year – THE DRAFT.

In preparing for my own draft this year, I decided to take a look at how the draft went last year. Upon a quick scan of the first few rounds from 2012, I quickly became astonished. The 2012 DRAFT SUCKED!
The early rounds last year are littered with injured players, underperformers and closers that were quickly tossed onto the scrap heap. So I began to wonder “well just how much did it suck?”.  And that is when I decided to do what I normally do, and crunch some numbers.

In theory, the first several rounds are the most important in the OBFBL drafts as teams look to build their winning team, or for those in build mode they look for keeper replacements or players that will be trade bait to others.

For this analysis we’ll take a look at the first 5 rounds from 2012, or the first 60 players. Below is the table showing the player, their draft spot and team, and then their actual rank last year from the ESPN player rater.

PICKS ANALYSIS FOR FIRST 5 ROUNDS

ROUND 1:
1.1 – Overall approx. 105 (after the 96 keepers and high ranking RKs are factored in) – Mike Napoli   (Fisher) – actual 2012 rank (AR) is #354
1.2 – #106 overall – Michael Young    (Ellis) – AR #242
1.3 – #107 overall – Kendrys Morales    (Riley) – AR #178
1.4 – #108 overall – C.J. Wilson    (Cheese) – AR #451
1.5 – #109 overall – Ian Kennedy    (Pepsi) – AR #263
1.6 – #110 overall – Mat Latos    (Conley) – AR #69
1.7 – #111 overall – Kevin Youkilis    (Ferreira) – AR #258
1.8 – #112 overall – Jonathan Papelbon    (Ferreira) – AR #104
1.9 – #113 overall – Dee Gordon    (Chard) – AR #511
1.10 – #114 overall – Brandon Beachy    (Gunn) – AR #429
1.11 – #115 overall – Rickie Weeks    (Dickie) – AR #174
1.12 – #116 overall – Mariano Rivera    (Conley) – AR #298
Total picks: 12;  Outperformed (their overall draft slot): 2;  OK: 4;  Busts: 6
Average Actual Rank: 277.6

ROUND 2:
2.1 – #117 overall – Heath Bell    (Chard) – AR #731
2.2 – #118 overall – Alexei Ramirez    (Mazgay) – AR #266
2.3 – #119 overall – J.J. Putz (Gunn) – AR #193
2.4 – #120 overall – Shane Victorino (Cheese) – AR #129
2.5 – #121 overall – Cory Luebke (Ellis) – AR #489
2.6 – #122 overall – Howie Kendrick (Conley) – AR #158
2.7 – #123 overall – Jose Valverde (Mazgay) – AR #394
2.8 – #124 overall – Michael Cuddyer (Pepsi) – AR #230
2.9 – #125 overall – Matt Wieters (Chard) – AR #207
2.10 – #126 overall – Andrew Bailey (Riley) – AR #1051
2.11 – #127 overall – Sergio Santos (Fisher) – AR #1122
2.12 – #128 overall – Jordan Walden (Ellis) – AR #659
Total picks: 12; Outperformed: 0; OK: 5; Busts: 7
Average Actual Rank: 469.1

ROUND 3:
3.1 – #129 overall – David Ortiz (Fisher) – AR #71
3.2 – #130 overall – Chris Young (Fisher) – AR #238
3.3 – #131 overall – Miguel Montero (Riley) – AR #124
3.4 – #132 overall – Joel Hanrahan (Cheese) – AR #646
3.5 – #133 overall – Jason Motte (Pepsi) – AR #44
3.6 – #134 overall – Joe Nathan (Mazgay) – AR #204
3.7 – #135 overall – Brandon League (Ferreira) – AR #474
3.8 – #136 overall – Kenley Jansen (Ellis) – AR #39
3.9 – #137 overall – Daniel Hudson (Chard) – AR #1020
3.10 – #138 overall – Cameron Maybin (Gunn) – AR #234
3.11 – #139 overall – Lance Berkman (Dickie) – AR #405
3.12 – #140 overall – Rafael Betancourt (Chard) – AR #136
Total picks: 12; Outperformed: 5; OK: 2; Busts: 5
Average Actual Rank: 302.9

ROUND 4:
4.1 – #141 overall – Jayson Werth (Conley) – AR #135
4.2 – #142 overall – Huston Street (Dickie) – AR #115
4.3 – #143 overall – Alex Avila (Gunn) – AR #317
4.4 – #144 overall – Kyle Farnsworth (Chard) – AR #422
4.5 – #145 overall – Carlos Marmol (Ellis) – AR #894
4.6 – #146 overall – Corey Hart (Gunn) – AR #77
4.7 – #147 overall – Ike Davis (Mazgay) – AR #254
4.8 – #148 overall – Chris Perez (Pepsi) – AR #255
4.9 – #149 overall – Andre Ethier (Cheese) – AR #96
4.10 – #150 overall – Matt Garza (Riley) – AR #383
4.11 – #151 overall – Delmon Young (Fisher) – AR #244
4.12 – #152 overall – J.P. Arencibia (Conley) – AR #553
Total picks: 12; Outperformed: 4; OK: 2; Busts: 6
Average Actual Rank: 312.1

ROUND 5:
5.1 – #153 overall – Brandon Morrow (Main) – AR #402
5.2 – #154 overall – Brett Myers (Fisher) – AR #365
5.3 – #155 overall – Josh Beckett (Riley) – AR #385
5.4 – #156 overall – Matt Capps (Cheese) – AR #476
5.5 – #157 overall – Logan Morrison (Pepsi) – AR #559
5.6 – #158 overall – Ryan Madson (Dickie) – AR – Not Rated – didn’t play in 2012
5.7 – #159 overall – Erick Aybar (Ferreira) – AR #160
5.8 – #160 overall – Greg Holland (Ellis) – AR #310
5.9 – #161 overall – Matt Thornton (Chard) – AR #339
5.10 – #162 overall – Emilio Bonifacio (Gunn) – AR #426
5.11 – #163 overall – Frank Francisco (Dickie) – AR #942
5.12 – #164 overall – Grant Balfour (Chard) – AR #125
Total picks: 12; Outperformed: 1; OK: 3; Busts: 8
Average Actual Rank: 468.5

SUMMARY OF FIRST 5 ROUND PICKS:
– So in total, out of the 60 players drafted, only 12 outperformed their overall draft position, another 16 were OK, and 22 were all out BUSTS, some huge busts due to injury (i.e. Madson, Hudson, Santos), or just being terrible (i.e. Marmol, Bell).

FIRST 5 ROUNDS – KEEPERS DRAFTED

Another way of measuring the strength of the draft is looking at the number of players drafted that became keepers at the end of the year.  Let’s take a look at the numbers for the first 5 rounds of the drafts over the past several years:

2012 DRAFT:  60 players picked, ONLY 4 became keepers (7%), 2 from first round
2011 DRAFT:  60 players, 10 became keepers (17%), 4 from first round
2010 DRAFT:  60 players, 14 became keepers (23%), 6 from first round
2009 DRAFT:  60 players, 13 became keepers (22%), 6 from first round
2008 DRAFT:  60 players, 13 became keepers (22%), 4 from first round

Of course, there is more to the draft than just the first 5 rounds, and rounds 6-10 in particular yielded 9 players that became keepers.
Take a look at the OBFBL draft history document to see the full results. The players kept are highlighted in Yellow.

OVERALL SUMMARY
How could a group of 12 savvy fantasy baseball owners collectively butcher the most important rounds of the annual draft?
Was this a phenomenon that was consistent across fantasy baseball last year, or did we just screw it up?
Was 2012 an outlier, and we’ll revert back to the regular percentages for “hit rate” early in the draft? OR is this the new trend that we’re seeing based on direction our league is taking?

And finally, does this data potentially change the way any of us approach our 2013 draft planning?  Well we’ll find out the answer to these questions by next offseason.

By Sean Chard

Each year we take a look back at and analyze what would happen if you had no keepers and the last pick of each round. Could you assemble a team strong enough to win the Shooter Cup?

In the 2010 Hindsight Warriors article, our Commissioner constructed a Shooter Cup winning team out of players selected in the draft (with only the last pick every round) or non-drafted waiver pick-ups.
Last year, we did it again, and even increased the winning team’s Rotos to 110!  2011 Hindsight Warriors article.

Let’s take a look back at the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season and do it again, and see if we can build a team to defeat the Pickering Dynasty’s 2012 Shooter Cup winning team.

The biggest surprise in Fantasy Baseball last year? Unquestionably, it’s R.A. Dickey. This waiver wire gem from last year will anchor our pitching staff.
On the hitting side, there were huge breakouts by E-squared and Headley that build the base of our infield.

Here is how the rest of team looks like.

2012 HINDSIGHT WARRIORS

C – Yadier Molina (round 9) and A.J. Pierzynski (round 17) [using a % of each of their stats for 162 GP]
1B – Edwin Encarnacion (round 6)
2B – Aaron Hill (round 8)
3B – Chase Headley (round 11)
SS – Ian Desmond (round 12)
UTIL – Adam LaRoche (round 25)
UTIL – Jose Altuve (round 15)
OF – Alex Rios (round 7)
OF – Carlos Gomez (round 27)
OF – Josh Willingham (round 5)
OF – Alfonso Soriano (round 13)
OF – Ben Revere (round 10)

NOTES:
– Killer comeback seasons from LaRoche, Hill, Soriano and Rios
– Big breakouts from Encarnacion, Headley, Desmond and Gomez
– Willingham joins the Hindsight Warriors for the 2nd straight season

Offensive Totals (and Roto rank):
R = 983 (6.5 Rotos) HR = 307 (12 Rotos) RBI = 1011 (8 Rotos)
SB = 216 (12 Rotos) Batting Average = .283 (12 Rotos) TOTAL = 50.5 ROTOS

P – R.A. Dickey (round 30)
P – Johnny Cueto (round 3)
P – Lance Lynn (round 26)
P – Max Scherzer (round 4)
P – Kris Medlen (round 29)
P – Wade Miley (round 22)
P – Fernando Rodney (round 23)
P – Jason Motte (round 2)
P – J.J. Putz (round 1)
P – Rex Brothers (round 28)
P – Tom Wilhelmsen (round 24)

NOTES:
– Big breakouts from Dickey, Medlen, Motte
– An out of nowhere comeback season by Rodney
– Lots of RP gold, as there seems to be every year

Pitching Totals (and Roto rank):
IP = 1493.2 W = 118 (12 Rotos) SV = 152 (10 Rotos) K = 1472 (11 Rotos)
ERA = 2.84 (12 Rotos) WHIP = 1.12 (12 Rotos) TOTAL = 57 ROTOS

GRAND TOTAL 107.5 Rotos  and the 2012 SHOOTER CUP!!!
Read through the full spreadsheet for the 2012 Hindsight Warriors HERE.

In summary, any team can win the Shooter Cup this year! Even those that have rebuilt and are down to 4 or 5 keepers. Keepers are great for building the foundation of your team for the year, but your draft and post-draft success (and some luck of course) are equally important. This is something for us to keep in mind as we all prepare for the 2013 Draft, now just 5 days away!

By Jason Cheese

So, we are two weeks out, and it’s that time to start the planning of the season.  We’ve already seen a couple of keepers go down with Granderson and Texeira both missing a couple of months to start the season, Carl Crawford being shut down again and Brett Lawrie missing a few weeks.

That being said, the research and planning goes on.  How well can you plan, when you don’t really know where you stand?  Obvious a few teams are rebuilding, and some have made moves to start a run at a shooter cup in 2013, and others continue to stay the course, and hope to add the right pieces from the draft that will push them over the top.

The rosters are very lopsided with the Crackheads having 15 major league ready players down to the Sex Panthers with only 4.  That will have a serious effect on the numbers that come out of the projections, and I don’t care.  It’s still fun to see, and needed to know where you need to add to your counting stats.

Cheese_total

And now it’s time to see the final stats, heading into the draft.

 Cheese_Stats

Congratulations to the Crackheads for being the off-season Shooter Cup Champion!  Which we all know, means absolutely nothing.  It is a good place to start from.  I left off quite a few of the RK’s, my decision on whether they will have a large fantasy impact this year.  Of course this is all going to change, and the Tribe are going to make an absolute mind blowing run for the shooter cup, only to fall short of 4th by 50 points in the greatest collapse in fantasy history ever.  See you in 2 weeks boys, please be REALLY hungover, I need all the help I can get.

2013 Rookie Keeper Draft **LIVE**

Posted: February 22, 2013 in League News

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Photo

OBFBL Team

Player

Position

1

 mlb_tavares_oscar_65 Riverdale Sex Panthers Oscar Taveras OF

2

 mlb_hamilton_billy_65 Brooklin Legacy Billy Hamilton SS/OF

3

 mlb_bundy_dylan_65 Riverdale Sex Panthers Dylan Bundy SP

4

 mlb_zunino_mike_65 Riverdale Sex Panthers Mike Zunino C

5

 mlb_bogaerts_xander_65 Pickering Dynasty Xander Bogaerts SS

6

 mlb_yelich_christian_65 London Tribe Christian Yelich OF

7

 mlb_olt_mike_65 London Tribe Mike Olt 3B

8

 mlb_miller_shelby_65 Whitby Poo Dogs Shelby Miller SP

9

 mlb_bauer_trevor_65 Brooklin Legacy Trevor Bauer SP

10

 mlb_singleton_jonathan_65 London Tribe Jon Singleton 1B

11

 mlb_myers_wil_65 Brampton Blue Balls  Wil Myers (Renewal)  OF

12

 hi-res-162159978_display_image Pickering Dynasty  Bruce Rondon  RP

RK DRAFT TRADES:

TO RIVERDALE SEX PANTHERS:
2013 RK pick – #3
Crackheads’ 11th round pick (#121 overall)
Crackheads’ 17th round pick (#193 overall)

TO ETOBICOKE CRACKHEADS:
2013 RK Pick – #5
Kenley Jansen – RP
Sex Panthers’ 7th round pick (#73 overall)

——

TO PICKERING DYNASTY:
2013 RK pick – #5
Crackheads’ 16th round pick (#192 overall)

TO ETOBICOKE CRACKHEADS:
2013 RK Pick – #5
Dynasty’s 1st round pick (#11 overall)
Dynasty’s 6th round pick (#62 overall)

——-

TO LONDON TRIBE:
2013 RK pick – #7

TO DURHAM DICKDOGS:
Brandon Phillips – 2B